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FXAK69 PAFG 081257 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 357 AM AKST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
The Bering Sea low is making its way into the Yukon Delta and northerly gales are developing over the Bering Strait and St.
Lawrence Island. A band of heavy snow and snow squalls will develop through the Bering Strait and into St. Lawrence Island this morning bringing localized heavy snow and whiteout conditions which can last through the weekend. Over the mainland, the weather has been relatively quiet today but light snow will be moving back into the Interior later today with a front moving north. Southerly wind in the Eastern Alaska Range as well as a Tanana Valley Jet have been increasing and will weaken this afternoon. The North Slope has had some light snow on the bookends in Point Hope and Barter Island while there's been a mix of stratus, fog and clear skies mixed in between. This will continue today though the snow chances will diminish.

DISCUSSION
Upper Levels and Analysis...
Models have initialized well with a 497 decameter low moving into the YK Delta. It will gradually move over Russian Mission this afternoon as a 499 decameter low, then drop south to near Dillingham by Saturday night. A front associated with this upper low is currently sitting on a line from Nome to Kenai and it will pivot northward today over the AK Range by midday and into the Central and Eastern Interior this afternoon, then to the Brooks Range tonight. A ridge over the Yukon and Northwest Territories is extending into the North Slope but will be pushing east gradually today and tomorrow as the front continues to move north. There is fairly good agreement with the developing pattern. However, between the CMC, EC and GFS, there are subtle differences heading into Sunday and especially Monday. The EC takes the remnant Bering Sea low and keeps progressing it slightly east while the CMC and GFS back it up to Bristol Bay. Then by Tuesday, models are very disorganized with the upper level pattern.

Surface Analysis...
A 995 mb low moving into the YK Delta with a stationary front from the Chukchi Sea to St. Lawrence Island which will provide snow and strong wind. An occluded front is located just south of Nome through the Norton Sound, and extends to just north of McGrath and into the Anchorage Bowl. This is providing some light snow and snow showers from the Seward Peninsula southeast towards Denali. This will be the culprit for the light Interior snow today and tonight as well. It meets up with a 990 mb low in Prince William Sound. A 1011 mb high over the Yukon extends north and west over the Eastern Brooks Range and North Slope.

Central and Eastern Interior...
The weather map is pretty quiet in the Central/Eastern Interior.
Temperatures have cooled below 0 in many locations but clouds are working their way in from the south which will moderate temperatures slightly. Wind in the AK Range has weakened but the Tanana Valley Jet is still gusting upwards of 40 mph in Delta Junction. These winds will weaken through the morning then pick up again slightly overnight through midday Saturday to 15 gust 25 mph. Other than this, light snow moves into the Fairbanks area around midday then pushes northeast through the afternoon. This will be a quick hitting light snow and there may be a half-inch to an inch from it, nothing significant. Another front will follow in its tracks Sunday morning with some light snow once again, though this looks to be more in the way of flurries. The pattern may get a bit more exciting for snow lovers in the Interior next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Light snow will continue this morning from the seward Peninsula to Galena then move northward through the afternoon. There will also be some light snow in the YK Delta as the low center spins overhead. This will come with some blowing snow, winds gusting to 50 mph at times along the coast and up to 25 mph inland before weakening later this morning. Snow totals look to be about 1 inch or less across the Coast and Interior. The most impactful weather will be happening along the Bering Strait and St. Lawrence Island where a heavy band of snow develops with winds gusting upwards of 65 mph at times resulting in whiteout conditions. This will last through the day on Saturday then the band of snow gradually moves southeast on Sunday. Snowfall totals through 3 PM Saturday look to be about 1-3 inches on the Bering Strait Coast and up to 8 inches for St. Lawrence Island, specifically Savoonga with about an inch for Gambell. Otherwise, the remainder of the West Coast and Western Interior will be drying out and cooling down Saturday and Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Areas of light snow along the NW Arctic Coast and around Barter Island will be ending this morning with stratus and areas of fog lingering through the day. Tonight, we will see an uptick in cloud cover and snow will breakout in the Eastern Brooks Range around midnight, then up to the Eastern Arctic Coast around midday Saturday. The snow will be light and end during the evening and overnight with just lingering flurries remaining into Sunday.
Snowfall totals look to be around a half inch in Anaktuvuk Pass and 1-2 inches south and east of there. For the North Slope, expect around a half inch in Deadhorse and 1-2 inches by Kaktovik.
Winds will be picking up slightly near Barter Island on Sunday with gusts to 25 mph. This may result in some blowing snow.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The extended is looking interesting. Starting with the general pattern, troughing over the state will leave an arctic front draped over the Interior, the exact placement is still being determined but this will play an important role. The storm track will be from the Pacific, south of the Aleutians to near Prince William sound. This will allow for several snow chances in the Interior. The placement of the arctic front will be determined by a couple of factors, a low over the Arctic providing northerly flow and the remnant low over the YK Delta providing persistent lows into the Northern Gulf of Alaska. Also, with these storms coming up, they will run into a high sitting over Eastern Russia, resulting in a tightening gradient and prolonging the northerly winds in the Bering Strait and St. Lawrence Island next week with heavy snow still remaining possible. Winds may pick up significantly over the Bering Sea with this set up and we are monitoring closely for the potential for impactful weather.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821-827.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802-850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-806-816-817-850-851-853- 854-856-857.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
Gale Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ817-851-854-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
Gale Warning for PKZ857.

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