NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

PKZ855 Kotzebue Sound Greater Than 10 Nm- 317 Pm Akst Wed Dec 6 2023
.gale warning in effect tonight...
Tonight..SE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog.
Thu night..E winds 10 kt.
Fri..E winds 10 kt.
Fri night..NE winds 10 kt.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt.
Sat night..N winds 10 kt.
Sun..N winds 10 kt.
Mon..N winds 20 kt.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 062347 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 247 PM AKST Wed Dec 6 2023

SYNOPSIS
Our active pattern continues, particularly for the West Coast with continuing rounds of high winds and heavy snow persisting, leading to winter weather impacts. Slightly more settled over the Interior with chances for light snow. Still more quiet along the North Slope with passing flurries. Should become colder again into the weekend for much of the area.

DISCUSSION

Upper Levels...

Good agreement and accuracy amongst 12Z global models today as they match up fairly well with observations and satellite showing a slow moving, strong 500mb low beginning its push across the northern Bering Sea, and a shortwave weakening along the northern coast of the Gulf of Alaska. The stronger, dominating low over the Bering Sea has deepened slightly today with multiple rounds of strong snow showers and winds. A shortwave emanating from this low has also helped to bring light snow to much of the Central Interior as well. There is very good upper pattern agreement through Saturday amongst models for this low to progress across the YK Delta and southern portions of the Western Interior into Saturday. Beyond that, there is okay agreement for large scale troughing to develop over the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska into the work week. WPC cluster analysis mostly agrees with a 500mb low height anomaly digging into this area around Days 5-7 but there is still a somewhat mixed bag for exact placement, strength, and persistence.

At the Surface....

A 988mb stacked low in the northern Gulf of Alaska continues to weaken this afternoon and should spin out overnight. As it does, the light snow it created in the eastern Interior should begin to peter out. A larger, deeper surface low pressure over the northern Bering Sea continues to strengthen and move over St. Lawerence Island, with several attending fronts that have lead to periods of heavy snow and strong winds across the Seward Peninsula today, which will continue. Elsewhere, some light snow and stratus continues under fronts aloft.

West Coast and Western Interior...

The strong low pressure system that continues to deepen and progress across the northern Bering Sea this afternoon will persist in bringing winter weather conditions to the West Coast.
One more heavy push of snow from the south that is impacting the southern coast of the Seward Peninsula into Unlakleet is already visible on Nome radar pushing eastward. This will contain high winds to 50 mph and heavy snowfall with rates of 1"/hour or greater that will lead to a period of reduced visibilities to near zero at times, particularly for areas near Nome. Additionally, for areas from Nome to Wales around 3 feet of surge is possible, leading to high surf which may push ice onto the beach. We have upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory for the Nome area to a Winter Storm Warning for the high winds and heavy snow. This is also possible along the YK delta, especially as winds turn northwesterly into tomorrow.

As the low pushes southeast a tight pressure gradient will develop on the backside behind an arctic front. This will lead to strong winds shooting down the Bering Strait and into St.
Lawerence Island. These winds, with gusts up to 45 mph should linger into the weekend. This will also lead to a strong convergence zone creating a single band ocean-effect type snowband impacted Little Diomede and St. Lawerence Islands. This will likely be a healthy snow band with ocean-induced CAPE of 300-400 J/kg and a moist model sounding through and beyond the DGZ. These conditions persist through Friday. Strong winds and high waves could also lead to freezing spray causing ice accumulations along portions of St. Lawerence island. Elsewhere, expect on and off squally activity to continue with CAA over the Bering Sea with mostly open waters.

Central and Eastern Interior...

Light snow and flurries this afternoon should continue to ramp down in intensity and coverage this afternoon and evening as the shortwave over the northern Gulf of Alaska breaks down and slides east through Thursday afternoon. We could see a period of no precipitation Thursday, though we may struggle to break out of the clouds. More light snow and flurries are possible Friday into Saturday as the remnants of the Bering Sea low push east. An inch or two is possible, especially along the Yukon River and into the south Brooks Range. Behind this, expect stout CAA and a drop in temperatures into the weekend with highs below zero. Into next week, southerly flow from the Gulf of Alaska may lead to a Chinook wind setup for the Alaska Range, though exact details are fuzzy yet. As that low moves east, we could see the potential for some more light back door snowfall.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Pretty quiet for the North Slope as stratus slowly decreases in coverage. Could see some flurries and low ceilings return once again as a weak front aloft moves over the area late week. Some light snow Friday and Saturday remains possible for the Brooks Range with a couple inches possible. Colder temperatures are expected here as well as we go into the weekend behind stout CAA following the powerful low moves across the Bering Sea today. That cold air could stick around this area into next week as an arctic front develops across the Interior thanks to high pressure development in the Eastern Pacific and an active pattern across the Gulf of Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814-815-817-824.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821-827.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ850.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
Gale Warning for PKZ802.
Gale Warning for PKZ803.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
Gale Warning for PKZ805-852.
Gale Warning for PKZ806.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-817-851-854-856-857.
Gale Warning for PKZ807-808-810-811-855-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812-816.
Gale Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ817-851.
Gale Warning for PKZ850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850-853.
Storm Warning for PKZ853-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ856.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Kiwalik
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:07 AM AKST     1.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:49 AM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:02 AM AKST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:57 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:48 PM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:19 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 03:56 PM AKST     2.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:29 PM AKST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kiwalik, Kotzebue Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Nome/Fairbanks,AK