Sunrise 4:59 AM   Sunset 10:53 PM Moonrise 3:55 PM   Moonset 3:15 AM

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PKZ215 Kotzebue Sound- 420 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
.brisk wind advisory in effect from late this afternoon through this evening - .
Today - W winds 20 kt. Tonight - W winds 25 kt. Thu - W winds 15 kt. Thu night - W winds 10 kt. Fri - SE winds 10 kt. Fri night - SE winds 10 kt. Sat - NW winds 15 kt. Sun - NW winds 15 kt.

PKZ200 Norton Sound- 420 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tonight - N winds 20 kt. Thu - N winds 10 kt. Thu night - N winds 10 kt. Fri - N winds 5 kt. Fri night - N winds 10 kt. Sat - N winds 15 kt. Sun - N winds 20 kt.

FXAK69 PAFG 182318 CCA AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 318 PM AKDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop along the thermal trough through the weekend. Moisture and upper level energy moving across the eastern Alaska Range and the southeastern Interior Sunday night into Monday will bring the potential for heavy showers; at higher elevations accumulating snow is possible. A weather front moves to the West Coast and Western Interior Monday into Tuesday, bringing showers and increased southeasterly winds.

DISCUSSION
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, broad upper level troughing is in place over much of mainland Alaska. A 526 dam low at the base of the trough near Perryville will move across Kodiak tonight and into the northern Gulf of Alaska Sunday and to near Yakutat by Monday morning continuing east into northern British Columbia by Monday afternoon. A 534 dam low near Wrangel Island moves south to the Gulf of Anadyr by Sunday afternoon, merging Monday with a 525 dam low moving east away from the Kamchatka Peninsula, becoming centered between the Pribilofs and St Matthew Island by Tuesday morning. Between the low in the Bering and the low in British Columbia, ridging develops across mainland Alaska

At the surface, a 1028 mph high 400 NM north of Nuiqsut will deepen to 1031 mb Sunday afternoon as it moves north into the high Arctic. A thermal trough stretches from McGrath to Nenana to Northway this afternoon. The thermal trough shifts north on Sunday to stretch from near Huslia to Fairbanks to between Eagle and Northway. A 996 mb low moves into the far western Bering Sea late Sunday and tracks east to be 350 NM northwest of the Pribilofs Monday morning to 150 NM northwest of the Pribilofs Tuesday morning. As this low tracks east northeast it will push a front towards the West Coast Monday afternoon, moving onshore the Y-K Delta and St Lawrence Island during the evening and overnight hours and pushing northeast across the Seward Peninsula and Western Interior Tuesday.

Models...
The 18/12Z models initialized well against the 12Z RAOBS and are in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern through Monday. There are some minor differences in the timing of weak impulse moving through the trough, but the impacts of the differences are very minimal. One of the biggest differences seen in model solutions compared to the last few days is the diminished instability expected on Sunday and thus thunderstorm potential.
Given the agreement among the ECMWF, NAM, and GFS, opted to trim back thunderstorm area on Sunday to Upper Tanana Valley, Fortymile Country, and White Mountains. Models have not handled the increased winds during the afternoon hours across the Interior with the thermal trough in place, opted to blend ADJMAV and NAM to capture the higher winds. Leaned toward the NAM for winds with the front moving to the West Coast Monday into Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Fairly quiet across the North Slope and Brooks Range over the next several days. High pressure over the Arctic will maintain areas of stratus and periods of fog, as well east winds of 10 to 20 mph range. Persistence expected temperature wise, with not much change in high and low temperatures

West Coast and Western Interior...
Drier conditions anticipated through Monday afternoon, with a few spotty showers. Precip chances increase late Monday as a weather front pushes over the Y-K Delta and St Lawerence Island and then moves northwest across the southwestern Interior to Seward Peninsula Monday night. With the approach and passage of the weather front Monday into Tuesday, southeast winds increase into the 15 to 30 mph range across the Y-K Delta and St Lawrence Island Monday afternoon, spreading north across Norton Sound and to the Seward Peninsula by Tuesday morning. High temperatures Sunday in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the Western Interior, in the 30s over St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast, and the mid to upper 40s elsewhere along the coast. Slightly cooler temperatures expected Monday for much of the area.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms expected across the Interior today and Sunday along the thermal trough. In addition to the thermal trough, upper level energy moving across the Interior will support isolated thunderstorm today over an area stretching from near Manley Hot Spring north to Gobblers Knob and east to Northway and Eagle. Confidence in thunderstorm potential for Sunday is lower than today. Thunderstorm potential on Sunday is largely over the Fortymile Country, but the White Mountains can’t be ruled out. Upper level low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern British Columbia Sunday night into Monday will push a slug of moisture across the Eastern Alaska Range and the southeast Interior, bringing increased chances for heavy showers, especially over the eastern Alaska Range. Rainfall amounts of half an inch to as much as an inch are possible in the eastern Alaska Range Sunday night through Monday night. From Delta Junction to Dot Lake up to half an inch of rain is possible. A mix of rain and snow is possible Sunday night into early Monday morning in locations such as Tok and Robertson River. Accumulating snow is possible in the higher elevations, especially in upslope areas of the Alaska Range where 4 to 6 inches are possible. Weak southerly gap flow is developing in the Alaska Range today, peaking tonight in the 20 to 30 mph range, and then diminishing on Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening winds become west to southwest and increase to 10 to 20 mph range Sunday night, diminishing Monday morning. High temperatures largely in the 60s Sunday. Lows in the mid 30s and lower 40s. Slightly cooler temperatures Sunday, especially over the southeastern Interior due to shower activity.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Deterministic and ensemble means continue to indicate a series of upper level lows in the Bering that squash the eastern Pacific Ridge. This will likely maintain continued chances for showers across the Interior and West coast through the week. Temperatures cool slightly for the latter half of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
Scattered showers are expected into early next week across the Interior. Thunderstorm potential continues through Sunday along the thermal trough, with the best chances occurring over the White Mountains, Fortymile Country and Upper Tanana Valley. Thunderstorm potential diminishes on Sunday. Weak southerly gap flow is developing in the Alaska Range today, peaking tonight in the 20 to 30 mph range, with south winds of 15 to 20 mph extending north to Delta Junction. The gap flow diminishes on Sunday morning. Northeast winds increase to the 10 to 20 mph range and persist into Monday from the White Mountains north across the Dalton Highway summits and the Yukon Flats. High temperatures largely in the 60s Sunday and Monday, with highs in the 50s for the far upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country on Monday. Minimum RH values will be in the 20 to 25 percent range Sunday from Nenana north to the Yukon Flats and near Eagle. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected to occur. Wetting rains develop Sunday into Monday over the southeastern Interior and eastern Alaska Range.

HYDROLOGY
The Yukon River at Pilot Station broke up on Thursday with water levels continuing to rise and starting to flow overbank into lower portions of the community. Ice was reported as running bank to bank as of Saturday morning at Pilot Station with the run of ice slowing down with a possible ice jam downstream between Pilot Station and Mountain Village. River levels will continue to rise until this ice jam clears or moves further downstream. Water levels have been steady at St. Mary's and Mountain Village. Water levels upstream at Marshall have been steady over the last day.
Flooding will continue for low lying areas at Pilot Station until the downstream ice jam releases. Once this jam releases or moves downriver water levels will rise significantly at St. Mary's, Pilot Point and Mountain Village.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ826.
PK...None.

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Kiwalik
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Sat -- 12:35 AM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 04:51 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:12 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:43 AM AKDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:52 AM AKDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:50 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:52 PM AKDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:37 PM AKDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
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Kiwalik, Kotzebue Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

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