Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kivalina, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...

-Strong winds develop for Isabel and Windy Passes this afternoon through Alaska Range passes are expected through tonight. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Isabel Pass north to Delta Junction through Wednesday morning with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

-Southerly Chinook flow across the Alaska Range results in generally warm and dry weather across the Tanana Valley through Thursday night or Friday. High temps in the 40s and 50s are expected.

-Locally heavy rain/snow mix appears increasingly likely for Friday night through Saturday night across the south-central and eastern interior. Heavy high elevation snow is possible across the eastern interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...

-Rain and snow showers are expected tonight across the YK Delta and Yukon Valley with partly to mostly cloudy skies and patchy fog possible elsewhere. Another round of rain/snow showers is possible for a similar area Friday night into Saturday.

-Northerly winds through the Bering Strait and over St. Lawrence Island at around 25 mph continue through Wednesday.

-High temperatures will be mainly in the 30s near the coast and in the 40s and 50s in the Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

-A mix of clear skies and low stratus will persist across the Arctic Coast and North Slope with generally good visibility, except near Point Lay. East winds gusting to around 40 mph and blowing snow will likely continue through Saturday.

-Lows will be mainly in the single digits with highs in the teens along the coast and in the 20s in the Brooks Range.

-The Brooks Range will be mainly dry under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies through Tuesday.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
Downslope flow across the Alaska Range continues through Thursday night as a vertically stacked low gradually weakens over Bristol Bay. Warm and dry Chinook flow today gradually backs to moist easterly flow by Thursday night. An energetic and negatively tilted trough pivots across the Gulf of Alaska on Thursday night before shifting north across the Alaska Range on Friday. EFI guidance paints most of the eastern interior with high chances (60-80%) of unseasonably heavy QPF between 00z Saturday and 00z Sunday. Ensemble means advertise around 1/2" of QPF in Fairbanks resulting from cyclonic flow around a surface low located along the AlCan border. This dynamic system may result in heavy high-elevation snowfall across the White Mountains and along the Dalton Highway Summits. While snowfall in the valleys can't be ruled out if heavy precipitation rates align with nocturnal cooling, impacts appear limited to elevations above 1,000 to 1,250 ft. High pressure persists across the Arctic with persistently strong east winds and blowing snow potential to the Point Lay area all week. The pressure gradient tightens as low pressure develops across the interior on Saturday, perhaps bringing strong east winds and blowing snow potential to more of the Arctic Coastline.

FIRE WEATHER
Downslope flow continues through midday Wednesday with sustained south winds 20 to 30 mph and gusts to 50 mph through Alaska Range passes. The latest model guidance indicates winds subside Wednesday afternoon when deeper mixing and minimum RH values occur. So far on Tuesday, RH values have struggled to fall due to fairly thick cloud cover and easterly low level flow preventing downslope flow from moving north. While downslope flow is likely to move north on Wednesday, recent precipitation and the lack of drying today implies RH may struggle to fall to critical levels. With that said, RHs values may dip into the 20s from Delta Junction across the Tanana Flats. Red Flag conditions on Wednesday are therefore unlikely and increasing moisture as flow backs southeast on Thursday limits fire weather concerns late this week.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Models are in good agreement that an energetic 500 mb low pressure system tracks over Prince William Sound Thursday night. A large chunk of that upper low moves across the Alaska Range on Friday and closes off and deepens along the AlCan Border Friday night through Saturday. The current set up looks favorable for moderate to locally heavy rain/snow showers to occur throughout the Central and Eastern Interior. Showers are expected to be rain during the day, transitioning over to snow at night. Light rain/snow showers appear likely for the western interior, but they may not reach the West Coast before reaching the West Coast. Clouds and precipitation across the interior late Fri thru early Sun keeps daytime temperatures below normal and nighttime temperatures near normal. A trend toward below normal temperatures is possible early next week across the eastern interior. The Arctic Coast and North Slope stays cooler than normal under chilly high pressure with areas of low stratus.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-812-851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-812-851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Gale Warning for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817-854-856-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ857.