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FXAK69 PAFG 111346 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 446 AM AKST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Snow squalls with periods of low visibility will ramp up again along the Bering Strait and Saint Lawrence Island on Monday and continue through Wednesday. Snow and blowing snow and strong winds over the northern Interior on Monday. More snow expected Tuesday and Wednesday over the Interior. Heavy snow expected over the Eastern Alaska Range through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough over Alaska. This pattern will remain stationary through the middle of next week. A series of short wave troughs will move north over Mainland Alaska through mid week. This pattern will also cause persistent northerly flow over the Northern Bering Sea which will cause a band of lake affect type snow showers and squalls to persist from Point Hope to the Bering Strait to St Lawrence Is through next Wed. Pattern change on Thursday and Friday with ridging shifting over the west coast and Interior and a trough moving across the Bering Sea bringing a weather front into the Bering Strait.

West coast...Strong northerly winds will ramp back up on Monday through the Bering Strait and Saint Lawrence Island and continue into Wednesday. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph could lead to reduced visibiltiy to one half mile at times.
Strong winds and waves could also lead to heavy freezing spray which may create light ice accumulations on surfaces. These hazardous conditions are most likely for Little Diomede and Saint Lawerence Island.

North slope...The Arctic Coast has stratus, fog and flurries that will continue through the weekend. The area from Nuiqsut east will have light snow on Sat into Sun. Temps will cool to 10 below over the Arctic Coast. Winds and low visibility continue for Point Hope this morning. The Brooks range will see -20 to -30 below Monday and Tuesday. Strong winds will also develop in the Brooks range and cold wind chills to -50 below on Monday night into Tuesday. Winter weather advisory has been issued for the passes.

Interior...A strong low will push inland over southern Alaska causing strong southeast winds to develop near Delta Junction and strong Northeast winds gusting to 40 mph over Elliott and Dalton Highway Summits early Monday morning along with blowing snow and low visibility. Indian Mountain is gusting near 40 mph.

A wind advisory is still in effect for Delta Junction area. An updated special weather statement has been issued for the Interior to update snow amounts. A Winter Storm warning still in effect for the eastern Alaska range for heavy snow late Sunday night through Tuesday. Southerly winds will also increase through Alaska Range Passes Sun night then weaken on Monday. The Central Interior will be downsloped and not much snow expected on Monday, but north and west of Fairbanks will see 3 to 6 inches. The second shot of snow brings a better chance of accumulating snow for Fairbanks on Tuesday. Snow will develop around Fairbanks late Monday night and continue into Tuesday. 3 to 5 inches expected around the Fairbanks area, and 6 to 10 inches over the Eastern and Northern Interior and down the Parks Highway near Denali through Tuesday night. Snow likely to linger into into Wednesday over the Interior. Snow will taper off over much of the area by Thursday. Also temperatures will moderate above zero for much of the area for the first half of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Northerly gales will cause high waves from Point Hope to the Bering Strait to St Lawrence Island Mon through Wed. This combined with temperatures in the teens will cause freezing spray in the Bering Strait, at Diomede and Savoonga Sun night through Wed.



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809-812-831.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821-827.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832>834.
Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ849.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ850.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
Gale Warning for PKZ802-805.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-804-810-811-852.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-850-851-853-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-850-851-853-854-856- 857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.

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Flaxman Island
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Mon -- 05:30 AM AKST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:11 AM AKST     0.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:39 PM AKST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
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Flaxman Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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