Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kaktovik, AK

SYNOPSIS
Upper level shortwave trofs moving from SE to NW periodically through this weekend & next week will bring some periods of light snow showers primarily to the Interior, & Central & Eastern Brooks Range, with the West Coast(around the Seward Peninsula) seeing some lighter snow showers drift around the area through much of the weekend. A tightened pressure gradient from an area of high pressure over the Arctic Ocean keeps gusty winds over the Arctic Coast, generally through the forecast period. With the exception of the Chukchi Sea Coast / Bering Strait area, wind gusts subside for the latter half of the weekend & Monday as the gradient there relaxes a bit. The winds to the east will increase, once again, for Monday night through the work-week as the pressure gradient tightens up, again. This may cause a bit of periodic blowing snow, reducing visibilities, at times. Temperatures across the region will finally be dropping to around normal values starting the latter half of the weekend.

SHORT TERM
/Through Monday Night/...The overarching weather pattern shows broad troughing is in place over northern Alaska with a strong ridge of high pressure of about 1030mb setting up over the Arctic Ocean. Looking up at the 500mb model heights/vorticity forecast output, several weak shortwave trofs look to move over our region, rotating counterclockwise around a quick series of strong SFC lows of about 970mb poised over the Gulf of Alaska. These will bring some snow showers with light accumulations to the Interior, the Eastern & Central Brooks Range, & Seward Peninsula into late weekend. A couple of upper-lvl vort-maxes look to advect northward over the Eastern & Central Interior & Eastern & Central Brooks Range starting this afternoon & going through Saturday, which will work to enhance lift enough for accumulating light-to-moderate snow showers to develop over those areas, moving from south to north.

As we move into next week, colder & drier air advects into the region, finally cooling the Interior to around normal values, which is confirmed by model forecast 850mb temperature & 700mb moisture advection. Any breaks in the clouds during the overnight hours will assist in this. Additional weaker shortwave trofs will continue to rotate around the parent low in the Gulf as we move into next week, with less energy & moisture to work with, bringing our AOR more snow showers, but they will be lighter/weaker & more scattered in coverage.

As far as the winds are concerned, the tightened North to South pressure gradient over the Arctic Coast down to the Bering Strait, keeping winds gusty between an area of high pressure over the Arctic Ocean & lower pressure to the south. The high will shift westward through the weekend, increasing winds for the Chukchi Sea Coast & Bering Strait areas & decreasing winds for the Beaufort Sea Coast.
The Arctic high will shift eastward on Monday, increasing winds, once again, for the Beaufort Sea coast & decreasing them for the Bering Strait area. These increased winds over the Arctic Coastal areas, may cause periodic blowing snow, reducing visibilities, at times.

LONG TERM
/Tuesday through Thursday/...The general weather pattern remains the same through the rest of the forecast period.
The strong Arctic high will remain parked over the Arctic Ocean, & strong lows will continue to track from west to east through the Gulf of Alaska with general broad trofing remaining over the majority of Alaska with weaker shortwaves rotating counterclockwise around the Gulf lows, periodically bringing continued chances for very light isolated to scattered snow showers, particularly for the Interior, through the period.

Gusty winds will remain in place over the Arctic Coastal areas due to the tightened North to South pressure gradient that will already be in place, causing a little bit of blowing snow at times, reducing visibilities. Notably, temperatures will continue to cool to around normal values for this time of year for the Interior, potentially dipping to around or just below zero for overnight lows for some areas outside & to the East & North of Fairbanks, especially if we see some appreciable breaks in the clouds, which looks likely as we move further into next week. This outcome is further supported by model forecast mid & upper lvl CAA & negative moisture advection for the period.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL
No coastal hazard concerns are anticipated at this time.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ810-856.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ811>814- 857>861.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ811.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 AM to noon AKST Saturday for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory until 3 AM AKST Saturday for PKZ813.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until midnight AKST tonight for PKZ813.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 AM to 6 AM AKST Saturday for PKZ813.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ813.
Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ814-859.
Gale Warning until midnight AKST tonight for PKZ814.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ814-815-860-861.
Brisk Wind Advisory until 3 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ851.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 3 PM AKST Saturday for PKZ859.
Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Saturday for PKZ860-861.
Gale Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ860.