Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kaktovik, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Anomalous and deep cold continues in the Interior with lows in the Valleys dropping well into the -30s and -40s for the next few mornings. Some of the coldest spots, including Fairbanks may reach 50 below zero! This is 30 to 40+ degrees below normal!

- A front from the north brings some cloud cover later this morning into the afternoon then clears during the evening. There will be some flurries with this, but not significant snow.

- Daytime temperatures moderate to the teens to near 20 below zero for the next few afternoons.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Anomalous and deep cold for late February/early March continues today. Lows will reach the 20s to 30s below zero along the coast, 30s and 40s below zero in Interior Valleys and 15F to 30F below zero above 1500ft.

- North winds increase today, especially in the Bering Strait with gusts to 35 mph expected into next week. Blowing snow and lowered visibility is possible.

- Slightly milder, but still well below normal temperatures persist into next week with highs around 0 along the coast, single digits below zero in the Interior and lows in the teens to 30s below.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Blowing snow with visibility near or below 1/2 mile expected to return to Deadhorse and Nuiqsut this evening and tonight and persists through Sunday afternoon.

- Blizzard conditions return from Point Thomson to Kaktovik this evening as well and persists through Monday morning.

- Temperatures remain 15F to 30F below normal into next week.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

A strong upper level trough continues to sit over the northeastern Arctic Coast, while strong 1036 mb surface pressure persists over much of the state. This pattern is keeping temperatures far below seasonable averages, despite increasing daylight and higher sun angles. Morning low temperatures across the Interior will bottom out again around the -40s, with Interior Valleys seeing temperatures as low as -50 in some spots. Lows across the West Coast will be a bit milder, with most areas seeing temperatures in the -20s and -30s.
850 mb temperatures will hover around -30C through Sunday, slightly increasing to around -20C by Monday. Although an improvement, temperatures are still expected to remain below seasonable norms, with lows in the -30s across the Interior and the teens below across the West Coast going into next week.

Blizzard conditions persist across the Arctic Coast through the weekend as a low pressure over the Canadian Archipelago pushes multiple fronts south into Northern Alaska. The first frontal wave already made its initial push through the Arctic Coast yesterday afternoon and continues to push south and into the Brooks Range. As this front continues to move further south, a brief period of high level clouds are expected to develop over much of the Interior, but will quickly dissipate heading into the overnight hours. A brief lull in blizzard conditions will occur for areas west of Deadhorse, but will quickly pick up again as a second frontal wave gets pushed south Saturday night into Sunday morning. A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for Kaktovik and Point Thomson through Monday morning, with a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for blowing snow for Deadhorse and Nuiqsut beginning Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. As this low continues to dip further south, we expect to see the pressure gradient tighten through the Brooks Range Passes, especially at Atigun and Anaktuvuk Pass. Cold Weather Advisories are in effect for wind chills as cold as -65F through noon on Sunday.

Heading into next week, the big question will be temperatures. There were previously some weak signals within the models for a slight warm up to begin sometime around Monday/Tuesday if an upper level trough set up over the eastern Bering. However, latest trends lean towards an upper low developing over the Western Interior. This leads to well below normal temperatures persisting over most of Northern Alaska. This pattern will also favor a strong northerly pressure gradient to set up over the Bering Strait. Given the amount of fresh snow on the ground across the Seward Peninsula, ground blizzard conditions are possible to develop late Sunday into early Monday morning. We issued a Special Weather Statement for the Bering Strait for visibilities as low as 1/2 miles possible and wind gusts as high as 40 mph.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
There are signs on the horizon of some pattern changes beginning mid next week for portions of the state. An upper low dropping south from the high arctic becomes centered over the Western Interior Tuesday into Wednesday, keeping conditions fairly cold, but increasing southwest flow over the Alaska Range. At the surface, blizzard conditions along the Northern Arctic Coast subside by Tuesday; however the reorientation of of surface features may result in strong east/northeast flow off the NW Coast. Potential is there for a period of low visibility and blowing snow from Wainwright to Point Lay to Point Hope mid next week, but confidence remains marginal on this occurrence. Will be watching the evolution of surface features going into next week and will issue products accordingly.

Well below normal temperatures persist in the long term and the trend we saw towards warmer temperatures next week has backed off significantly. Models have trended towards the GFS with an upper low developing over the Western Interior on Tuesday and traversing east through the week. This would most likely result in continued cold temperatures as 850mb temperatures remain near -20C or colder through the end of the week. -20C at 850mb supports surface temperatures as cold as -40F under clear and calm conditions. It is looking more and more likely that we should expect very cold temperatures persisting through the end of the week across much of Northern Alaska.

Looking further at ensembles, there is a strong ridge developing in the Pacific, northeast of Hawaii by mid-late next week. The trend has been to have this farther south and east, allowing a trough to remain over the state which doesn't bode well for warming temperatures. The ridge does have a chance to win out though, but this may be after next weekend. We'll keep an eye on the trends moving forward but it currently looks to remain well below normal into next weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ809>812.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804.
Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ834.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
Gale Warning for PKZ814-860.
Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-850.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817-853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.