Tuesday, October19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kaktovik, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:55AMSunset 6:15PM Tuesday October 19, 2021 12:40 PM AKDT (20:40 UTC) Moonrise 5:17PMMoonset 6:19AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kaktovik, AK
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location: 70.16, -145.98     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK69 PAFG 191351 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 551 AM AKDT Tue Oct 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. Strong low near St Lawrence Island will weaken as the weather front moves over the the West Coast today. Strong pressure gradient will hold on over the Chukchi Sea with strong northeast winds. Leeside troughing will combine with high pressure pushing into the Copper River Basin, and along the south slopes of the Brooks Range to produce strong gusty winds. Tanana Valley Jet will produce winds gusting around 40 mph around Delta Junction. Strong gap winds will also develop today with gusts around 55 mph in passes west of the Tok Cutoff. Eastern Brooks Range passes will also see some gusty winds to around 30 mph. Strong east winds in the Arctic will create visibility problems in blowing snow as visibility is reduce to one half mile at times from Nuiqsut east. Visibility will also be reduced around Utqiagvik to around one mile at times. Improving conditions across the area Wednesday.

DISCUSSION.

Models . Near term the 19/00Z solutions are in good agreement, but that changes significantly beyond 48 hours as the strong low moves into the Southwest Bering Sea, then to Bristol Bay. Location of major features is good in the near term, but the location of the strong low center shows about 300 nm of variability and the spread increases with time. Strength of low is also quite variable with the Canadian solution indicating the lowest pressure of 941 mb, while the ECMWF has it at 954 mb. Solutions do a better job of handling the high pressure building over the Eastern Brooks Range and Eastern Interior in the midrange. Solutions continue to struggle with the gap winds and Tanana Valley Jet winds in the short term and at this time they will not be as strong as previous solutions suggested. Precipitation type on the West Coast will be a challenge as warm air is surging north up the coast. Yesterday solutions indicated that rain would mix with snow south of Nome, but today it looks like the mixing will occur as far north as the southern Seward Peninsula to the Bering Strait. Solutions are similar in bringing the front and precipitation inland as it decays. Will primarily use a blend of the solutions for the near term, but will lean toward a GFS NAM blend beyond 72 hours to try and limit the variability in the solutions.

Aloft . At 500 hpa . Ridging across the state with the axis from the AlCan Border crossing over Fairbanks to Ambler to Wrangel Island this morning, and weak ridging is holding on over the Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island. A 522 dam low has moved north over the Gulf of Alaska, and a 505 dam low has moved to 100 nm west of St Matthew Island. Tuesday afternoon the low over the Gulf will weaken and merge with the 504 dam low over the Bering Sea as it moves just south of St Lawrence Island with a strong trough extending southeast over Kuskokwim Bay then south over Sand Point. Troughing will also extend from over Kodiak Island southeast, and a shortwave will move over the Gulf of Alaska Coast. The ridging will slide north to lie over the Eastern Brooks Range to Utqiagvik to just north of Wrangel Island. Wednesday morning the ridging will move north to lie over the Arctic, but weak ridging will push west over the Eastern and Central Interior. Troughing will extend from the Kamchatka Peninsula across the Northern Bering Sea to a 506 dam low over the Gulf of Anadyr, then southeast to a 507 dam low near Cape Romanzof, then over Bristol Bay and the Pacific. The shortwave that was over the Gulf of Alaska Coast will move over the Brooks Range and Arctic Plain. Not much change by Wednesday afternoon as ridging remains across the Northern Arctic. The shortwave will move over the offshore waters, while ridging continues to push west over the Central and Eastern Interior, and the Eastern Arctic Coast. Troughing will hold across the Northern Bering Sea from a 506 dam low over the Northwest Bering to a 506 dam low over the Gulf of Anadyr to a 509 dam low just east of St Lawrence Island to a 521 dam low over Kodiak Island then southeast At 850 hpa. -10C isotherm lies over the Brooks Range this morning. A dome of warm air around 0C has moved over the Central and Eastern Interior south of the Yukon River. The -10C isotherm will move north of the Arctic Coast this evening as warmer air near 0C is pushed north to the Eastern Arctic Coast. A dome of around 0C temperatures will hold on over portions of the Central and Eastern Interior, Eastern Brooks Range, and Eastern Arctic Coast through the remainder of the week.

Surface . A 976 mb low has moved to 100 nm west of Gambell and the weather front has moved to the coast as it extends from St Lawrence Island to Cape Romanzof to Cold Bay. The low will move southeast to Cape Romanzof this afternoon as the front stalls from the Bering Strait to King Salmon. Leeside troughing has developed north of the Alaska and Brooks Ranges and will persist as high pressure builds west into the Copper River Basin, the Upper Tanana Valley, the Upper Yukon Flats, along the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range, and across the Arctic along 75N. Strong pressure gradients developing across the Alaska and Brooks Ranges, in the Upper Tanana Valley, and over the Arctic Coast and offshore waters. As the low fills the pressure pattern over the state will weaken and the gradients will relax Wednesday in the Interior, while in the Arctic the strong gradient will move north of 75N as a trough of low pressure moves offshore. Weak high pressure over the Interior will hold on as a 1004 mb high develops near Old Crow YT, and high pressure will continue to push into the Eastern Interior. A strong 950 mb low will move into the Central Bering Sea Wednesday, and into the Eastern Bering Sea Thursday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range . Increasing east winds with increasing clouds and decreasing visibility in blowing snow from Utqiagvik east. Visibility will be reduced to less than one half mile at times from Nuiqsut east. Winds increasing to 25 to 35 mph gusting to 45 mph by late this afternoon will diminish overnight. Highs will be in the 20s with lows in the teens.

West Coast and Western Interior . Strongest winds will be this morning as the front in moving inland. Snow from the Bering Strait south along the coast will mix with rain in the afternoon. Inland areas east of Marshall will see mainly snow with just a chance of it mixing with rain in the afternoon. Precipitation will be mainly west and southwest of Galena. Winds from the Bering Strait south will diminish in the afternoon and overnight as the weather front decays over the coast. High temperatures from the Seward Peninsula south in the upper 30s and lower 40s, while lows will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s, to the north highs in the 20s and lows in the teens. Inland highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s.

Central and Eastern Interior . Remains relatively quiet across the Interior today. Increasing clouds in the Koyukuk River Basin with some light snow or flurries tonight. Winds kicking up with the Tanana Valley Jet setting up Today with gusts around 40 mph around Delta Junction. Gap winds will also increase today with gusts to around 55 mph near the Alaska Range Passes. Lows in the teens and 20s above with highs in the mid 20s to around 40.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4 . Elevated surf will continue on the outer coastlines through Thursday with wave runup of up to 2 feet above the normal high tide line on south and southwest facing coastlines.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7 . A low near St Lawrence Island will weakens with broad low pressure over most of the mainland and the Arctic nearshore waters. A strong low will move into the southwestern Bering Sea Wednesday night and to the Pribilofs Thursday evening while high pressure builds over the Eastern Interior. The low will dive southeast into the Northeast Pacific Friday night as low pressure spread northeast over mainland Alaska. Precipitation generally limited to the Lower Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island through Friday. A low will spread snow to the Northeast Interior Friday night and the Central Brooks Range and Arctic Coast Saturday. Temperatures will be slightly above climatological normals through Friday with cooling temperatures beyond that.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240- PKZ245-PKZ500.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ230-PKZ500.



SDB OCT 21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Barter Island, Barter Island LRRS Airport, AK127 mi48 minE 1110.00 miOvercast21°F19°F92%1006.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PABA

Wind History from ABA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW23W24W23W21--W19W20W17W15W13W11SW9SW9SW7SW4SW5S6SE5SE5SE5E7SE10E10E11
1 day agoSW5SW5SW4SW5SW9SW8SW9W13W12W13W16W18W18SW16SW14W19
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2 days agoSW7SW5SW6S6SW5SW5SW5N6N4SW6SW6W5SW10SW4W6SW11SW8W5SW12W6S9SW7SW6SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Flaxman Island, Alaska
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Flaxman Island
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Tue -- 12:57 AM AKDT     0.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:19 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:23 AM AKDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:17 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:10 PM AKDT     0.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:37 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:15 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:53 PM AKDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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