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FXAK69 PAFG 022126 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1226 PM AKST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Demure and benign weather will continue for the next few days. The main highlights will be the coldest temps of the season so far for the Interior with periods of light snow for the West Coast and NW Arctic.

DISCUSSION

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 501 dam arctic low over the N Bering Sea with a weak shortwave trough over the E Interior. There is a 504 dam arctic low over the NW Territory and Banks Island. There is a 505 dam NPAC upper low over the S Gulf of AK with an associated 960 mb low. An arctic front remains over the West Coast/Western Interior which is where light snowfall continues along and around this front. Mostly clear skies over the Interior are promoting temps below zero in most valley locations where it remained clear overnight.

Model Discussion...
Models are in fair agreement with the general pattern but differ in many areas with several systems which will impact the Mainland for the next 4 days. First is snowfall over the Yukon Delta region. The models are all similar looking but in different places with a deformation band of snowfall Sunday into Monday. The NAM is most aggressive showing this band of snow lifting north across the W Interior to the W Brooks Range while the ECMWF cuts this band off. GFS is sort of in the middle. We favored a NAM blend as it seems more likely some snowfall will form along the arctic front.
After that, several lows will move into the N Bering Strait and we favored a NAM/GFS blend to highlight stronger winds and increasing POP chances Tue into Wednesday beginning from Saint Lawrence Island and eventually spreading to the West Coast.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Periodic flurries will impact the SE Interior and Yukon Flats to White Mtns in association with low stratus. Expect continued cold temps in the Tanana Valley where skies are clearer. The Tanana Valley Jet will continue to blow 15 to 30 mph with a slight break in winds tonight and early tomorrow. Otherwise, cold inversions dominate with clear sky areas continuing to see low in the negative teens with highs not breaching zero. Light snow will move across the SE Interior and Fortymile Uplands on Monday night and Tuesday with light accumulations.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Continued light snowfall will fall periodically as an arctic front remains across the region stretching from the Yukon Delta to Kotzebue Sound. Snow showers taper off Monday night, then a leading front shifts into the Saint Lawrence Island region and then into Norton Sound Monday night and Tuesday, bringing snow squalls and blustery winds to the areas. The big arctic front from Siberia arrives Tuesday night and Wednesday with gales and possible heavy snow squalls and accumulating snowfall to much of the West Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Easterly winds and periods of low stratus and ice fog will continue until at least Monday night. A low over the NW Arctic on Monday and Tuesday will bring light snowfall accumulations. Expect continued localized minor blowing snow over the western half of the Arctic Coast where east winds are gusting as high as 25 mph.
Brooks Range weather looks quiet with periodic flurries and light gradients overall.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The Siberian cold arctic low will be sending some of its cold into the West Coast Tuesday and into the weekend, as 850 temps drop and cold northerly gales develop behind the arctic low Wednesday.
Heavy snow squalls look likely for the Bering Strait to Saint Lawrence Island and likely through the weekend. For the rest of the Interior and even up to the Brooks Range, there will be increased chances for light snowfall as lows from the Gulf try and move north across the arctic high. Lots of uncertainty for the Mainland but the best chance for snow right now looks sometime midweek.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A low is projected to track into the N Bering Sea from the Sea of Okhotsk sometime Wednesday and then move inland Thursday into Friday. However, the current track looks like it will bring the highest seas/surge into Bristol Bay. Minor elevated water levels are still possible from the YK Delta to Norton Sound.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.

PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-860-861.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857-858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.

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Flaxman Island
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Sat -- 04:40 AM AKST     0.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:04 AM AKST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:32 PM AKST     0.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:03 PM AKST     0.06 feet Low Tide
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Flaxman Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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