Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kaktovik, AK

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
Central and Eastern Interior...

-A few showers persist in the eastern Interior today and are mostly confined to the Yukon Uplands and the eastern Brooks Range. These will be mostly snow at elevation, but lower areas may see some light rain.

-Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s today with lows falling below freezing creating a freeze thaw cycle through much of the week.
Highs increase to near 50 for the Tanana Valley east of Fairbanks tomorrow and stay near 50 for much of the week.

-Showers return to the Fortymile Country and upper Tanana Valley Monday afternoon. These will be mostly rain in the valleys and mostly snow in the hills.

West Coast and Western Interior...

-Rain/snow showers return to the Yukon Delta this afternoon as the next system approaches. Showers then stretch north to St.
Lawrence Island by Monday morning and to the southern Seward Peninsula by noon Monday. Showers are expected to be a messy rain/snow mix, especially in the Yukon Delta and lower Yukon Valley where the mix will be more rain than snow. Snow becomes more dominant for areas from Shaktoolik north, but showers will be less frequent there keeping accumulations light. Higher snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches in the Nulato Hills where much more of the precipitation will fall as snow. 2 to 3 inches total of snow are expected for St. Lawrence Island where showers that are mostly snow will last into Tuesday night.

-Winds shift east northeast through the Norton Sound and Bering Sea with sustained winds generally 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts out of areas favorable to easterly winds like Unalakleet.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

-Easterly winds 10 to 15 mph shift northeasterly Tuesday and increase to 20 mph Wednesday. Winds will be stronger on the northwestern coast from Point Lay to Point Hope with sustained speeds reaching 20 mph Tuesday and up to 30 mph Wednesday.

-Temperatures remain steady through midweek with highs in the single digits above and lows near 0.


FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
An Arctic high north of Point Barrow gives way to broad troughing across the state today as a low moves into Bristol Bay by Monday afternoon. A front off of this low is currently supporting a band of precipitation in the YK Delta that will move north through tonight and Monday before the Bristol Bay low gets pulled southeast into the Gulf of Alaska Tuesday evening. As this moves south a strong 558 dam high moves from eastern Siberia into the Northwest Arctic and begins to increase surface pressure across from the northwest. The next system is a low moving across the Aleutian archipelago Thursday through Sunday with very low forecast confidence on the timing and development of this feature as it moves east.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A low moves along the Aleutian Archipelago Thursday through Sunday with models having difficulty determining it's exact path and speed. The Canadian model is the fastest with this system and pushes the low into the broad troughing over the mainland and Gulf of Alaska merging the low bringing some light precipitation to the West Coast late this week. The GFS and ECMWF models bring the low slowly across the Aleutians reaching the Alaskan Peninsula Saturday night with minimal impacts for Northern Alaska. The ECMWF then splits a low from a shortwave feature in in northern Canada and rockets it across the Northwest Coast next weekend. No other model shows this feature and, given the overall pattern, we are not expecting this result, but should this verify there would be periods of strong winds across the North Slope and through the Brooks Range passes next weekend. Generally benign weather expected otherwise.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851-854.