Sunrise 4:34 AM   Sunset 11:00 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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FXAK69 PAFG 112316 CCA AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 316 PM AKDT Sat May 11 2024


SYNOPSIS
Gusty winds persist in the Alaska Range this afternoon then will diminish this evening. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer today across much of the Interior and West Coast.
Scattered to numerous showers willd develop over the Interior on Sunday along with a chance of an isolated thunderstorm. A Flood Watch continues for the Yukon River due to an ice jam 12 miles upstream from Circle. A strong front could impact the west coast on Tuesday with snow and blowing snow along the Bering Strait.

DISCUSSION

Upper Level Analysis...
Troughing persist over the north slope and a closed low in the Gulf of Alaska. Weak ridging holding on over the Interior, but that should weaken and the shortwave in the Gulf will lift north over the Eastern Interior on Sunday. Ridging will build over the west coast on Sunday. Weak troughing will persist over the Interior on Monday then ridging slides to the east and a strong upper trough will push into the west coast Tue into Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
High pressure will keep most of the west coast quiet through the weekend. Highs inland in the 50s and 30s near the coast. There is a strong shortwave trough dropping south from the Chukchi Sea bringing some showers and an isolated thunderstorm south and east of Huslia, but there will be quite a bit of dry air aloft which may ease any shower chances. Scattered to numerous showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm in the western Alaska Range on Sunday and Monday. A strong front will begin to impact the west coast on Tuesday with strong southerly winds and snow and blowing snow for Saint Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for potential impacts. There is still some uncertainity on exact track and timing of the system.

Central and Eastern Interior...
This afternoon will be a few degrees warmer across the Interior with most locations staying dry. There is a risk for a few showers in the Northern Interior, but they will be hit or miss.
High temperatures in the 50s to near 60 through this weekend.
Scattered to numerous showers and Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening and again on Monday along the thermal trough. Gap winds are still gusty in the Alaska Range and near Delta Junction this afternoon but should diminish some tonight.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Areas of locally dense fog will hang around the Arctic Coast with a few snow showers possible as well, especially for the Northwestern Arctic Coast. Expect high temperatures in the 20s along the coast with 30s in the Brooks Range through early next week. No significant weather hazards are anticipated for the foreseeable future but we are monitoring the potential for a Bering Sea low late next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast for Days 4-7...
More of the same across the Interior with showers and Isolated thunderstorms. The only impactful system we are monitoring is the potential for a Bering Sea low Tuesday into Thursday. The ECMWF and GFS both pick up on this feature and are in decent agreement while the CMC is the outlier bringing a low into the Bering Sea, then dropping it to the Aleutians. There is a potential for strong southerly winds along the West Coast with mixed precipitation and elevated surf along the coast.

FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures in the 50s to near 60 through this weekend.
Scattered to numerous showers and Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening and again on Monday along the thermal trough. Near red flag conditions this afternoon with Southerly gap winds of 25 to 40 mph in Isabel Pass. East- Southeast winds in Delta Junction will gust to 40 mph this afternoon, then decrease this evening. Near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast with minimum RH values of 20 to 30% this afternoon.

HYDROLOGY
A Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday morning. A persistent ice jam remains 12 miles upstream from Circle. The jam has been in place for 5 days without any significant changes.
Since yesterday, water levels have dropped above the ice jam and downstream at Circle. The braided channels near Circle continue to melt slowly. Chunk ice and small pans can easily pass by Circle and across the south bends. A large section of intact ice 4 miles long remains above Circle. When that breaks up, there is a small chance it could cause an ice jam and minor flooding. The gradual breakup trend is expected to continue with the ice at Fort Yukon slowly breaking up over the next few days.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853-854.

Flaxman Island
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Sat -- 12:26 AM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 02:52 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 03:18 AM AKDT     0.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:44 AM AKDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:54 PM AKDT     0.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:23 PM AKDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Flaxman Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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