Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Prudhoe Bay, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:38AMSunset 6:35PM Monday October 14, 2019 2:17 AM AKDT (10:17 UTC) Moonrise 5:59PMMoonset 8:50AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ240 Cape Halkett To Flaxman Island- 201 Pm Akdt Sun Oct 13 2019
Tonight..SW winds 15 kt. Seas to 4 ft. Freezing fog.
Mon..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon night..E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
Tue..E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
Tue night..E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
Wed..E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
Wed night..E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
Thu..E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Fri..E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
PKZ200 Norton Sound- 208 Pm Akdt Sun Oct 13 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday morning through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon..E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
Mon night..E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
Tue..E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
Tue night..E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
Wed..E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed night..E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prudhoe Bay, AK
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location: 70.46, -149.44     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 132340
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
340 pm akdt Sun oct 13 2019

Synopsis
Snow along the alcan border will end this afternoon as the cold
front causing this moves east of the border.

Former typhoon hagibis will bring strong east winds to the west
coast of alaska Mon into tue, and to the eastern arctic coast tue
into wed. This will also bring moderate easterly drainage winds mon
and Tue to the areas of interior that normally get these winds
such as delta junction and indian mountain to shungnak. At this
time expect winds to remain below public warning and advisory
level, and marine winds to remain below storm force level.

Much of the interior now has snow cover, excepting the area from
fairbanks west to mcgrath and the seward peninsula, and the yukon
flats. This will cause temperatures to drop into the single
digits and teens in most snow covered areas of the interior once
skies clear tonight, with teens in the snow free areas. This will
also cause steam fog along most rivers and lakes in the interior
tonight through Mon am.

Aloft...

the long wave pattern consists of a trough over NW russia, a ridge
over mainland alaska, and a second trough over the western bering
and NE russia. This second trough will extend east over the
bering sea on mon, then extend east over the gulf of alaska and
southern alaska and undercut the ridge on Tue and wed. This will
cause a drying trend through mon, and then a cloudy and cooling
trend from Tue into the weekend.

A short wave trough from inuvik to big delta will move east of the
alcan border tonight. Clouds and light snow east of this trough
will diminish along the trough with clearing west of the trough.

Surface...

high pressure over the north slope and northern interior of
alaska will move move east of the alcan border and north of the
alaska coast Mon night and tue. This is causing s-sw winds along
the arctic coast that is keeping skies partly cloudy with patchy
fog there now. The winds will turn east along the arctic coast on
mon night, and then increase Tue into Wed as the high moves
offshore. Expect east winds to increase to 20-30 mph by tue, with
gusts of 40 mph in zone 204 Tue and Tue night.

In the interior, east winds will develop Mon as the high moves
east, and then increase Mon night and Tue as the gradient
increases due to the approaching bering sea low. Will see easterly
winds 15g30 mph Mon into Tue in areas prone to easterly winds such
as near delta junction and from indian mountain to shungnak.

A 991 mb low west of anadyr will move to west of wrangel island
as a 989 mb low by 4am Mon and then continue moving northwest.

This is causing SE winds 10-20 kt along the west coast and causing
stratus clouds there as well. Expect the clouds to decrease
tonight along the west coast as this low moves nw.

The remnants of typhoon hagibis will move north into the
southwest bering sea tonight and re-strengthen, then move to the
central bering sea as a 951 mb low by 4pm mon, and to the northern
bering sea as a 957 mb low by 4pm tue, then weaken slowly.

This will cause east winds 25-35 mph to develop over much of the
west coast of alaska Mon and continue into Tue before decreasing
slowly into wed. Over the northern bering marine zone 210 and st
lawrence island expect maximum gales force winds of 45kt to
develop Mon and continue into tue. Expect winds to gust 50-55 mph
at st lawrence island and along the yukon delta Mon pm into tue.

Expect a chance of rain and snow to spread over the west coast
south of the bering strait Mon night and Tue ahead of this low.

A low in the gulf of alaska will move to the NE gulf of alaska on
tue and cause clouds and a chance of snow over the SE interior
tue into wed. This will cause the winds to decrease and temps to
become less cold at night Tue night and wed.

Discussion
Models initialize well aloft and at the surface at 12z sun, and
show similar solutions through 12z mon. After that time, the nam
takes the remnants of typhoon hagibis to the northwest more
quickly than the GFS ecmf and canadian models. Since this former
typhoon is now tapping into cold air and will see rapid deepening
tonight, expect the track to slow down per the GFS solution. This
cyclone is expected to deepen 30 mb between 18z today and 18z mon
which classifies it as bomb cyclogenisis. This type of rapid
deepening, along with the tropical nature of the system, often
causes models to perform less well than normal on the track. At
this time we prefer the GFS track since it is similar to the ecmf
and canadian model tracks, and because the slower track fits with
the deepening system.

With precipitation, than NAM takes precip north to fast along
with the entire weather system. Prefer a blend of the GFS and ecmf
fore precip locations, and do not expect any significant amounts
through wed.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...

east winds 25-35kt along the west coast and Mon night and tue,
and along the north slope Tue into Wed will cause below normal sea
levels.

Hydrology
Rivers are falling, and river and lakes are beginning to freeze.

Afg watches warnings advisories
Small craft advisory for pkz200-pkz210-pkz215-pkz220-pkz225.

Gale warning for pkz210.

Jb oct 19


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PRDA2 - 9497645 - Prudhoe Bay, AK 49 mi47 min SW 16 G 18 19°F 31°F1017.2 hPa

Wind History for Prudhoe Bay, AK
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G31
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W24

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for PAKU

Wind History from AKU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------W7SW7W8SW9SW9SW8SW11----SW9SW7--S9S8S9S9
1 day ago----------------W19W21W22W20W15W17W15W15W15W15W16SW15SW15SW15SW16SW14
2 days ago----------------SW10SW10SW10SW10SW10SW12SW14SW13SW15SW13W14W14W14W14W14SW13

Tide / Current Tables for Cross Island (Dinkum Sands), Alaska
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pedro Dome, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.