Sunrise 2:47 AM   Sunset 12:56 AM Moonrise 7:58 PM   Moonset 12:16 AM

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PKZ814 Cape Halkett To Flaxman Island Out To 15 Nm- 234 Pm Akdt Mon Jun 17 2024
Tonight - E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Tue - E winds 20 kt. Fog and freezing fog. Tue night - E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Wed - E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog and fog. Wed night - NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Thu - NE winds 15 kt. Thu night - NE winds 15 kt. Fri - NE winds 15 kt. Sat - NE winds 20 kt.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 172123 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 123 PM AKDT Mon Jun 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
An active day of storms is expected today, especially in southwest AK and the AK Range. Storms have already begun to develop and will continue to fire off through the afternoon and evening. Fairbanks should remain clear of storms but may get a shower this afternoon.
The higher terrain in the Central and Eastern Interior will have isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Tomorrow will be a bit more significant with scattered thunderstorms in the Western and North-Central Interior. The North Slope will also see isolated thunderstorms, though they will remain south of the coast.

DISCUSSION
Upper Level Analysis...
The models initialized about 30 meters too strong at 500mb compared to the 12z RAOBs from Nome, McGrath and Fairbanks. It is 50 meters too strong over Kotzebue and 70 meters too strong in Utqiagvik. This indicates a stronger low in the Chukchi which is pinching the Interior ridge faster than anticipated. The shortwave in SW AK is also a bit faster than models indicating quicker convective initiation in SW AK this afternoon as this shortwave moves north/northwest through the Western Interior.

Surface Analysis...
Thunderstorms have already sparked in the AK Range and Eastern Interior, while thunderstorms are starting to initiate in SW AK with the shortwave. The ongoing forecast has not changed too much today as temperatures soar to about 80 degrees in the Interior with isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected. The North Slope is under the influence of a low in the Chukchi Sea providing stratus and areas of fog. Tomorrow, the low will drop south towards the Bering Strait with stratus and fog for much of the West Coast as winds turn onshore. In the Interior, thunderstorms continue tonight north of Galena, then during the day for much of the Interior with scattered thunderstorms from Galena to Fort Yukon tomorrow.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Thunderstorms will continue in the AK Range through the day while we see isolated storms for the remainder of the Interior north and east of Fairbanks. Temperatures make it to about 80 degrees for most with low to mid 80s in the Yukon Flats. Tomorrow is the big day for thunderstorms as there will likely be scattered thunderstorms from Allakaket to Fort Yukon and Widely scattered thunderstorms elsewhere besides Fairbanks where it will remain isolated. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for lightning from Bettles to the Yukon Flats from noon to 10 PM Tuesday. Wednesday looks a couple of degrees cooler but isolated to scattered thunderstorms will still be possible. Thursday continues the cooling trend by a couple more degrees with isolated storms.
Thursday could bring heavy rain to the Eastern Interior and AK Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The coast will have a beautiful day today with increasing clouds, some fog and a few rain showers tomorrow as a low provides onshore flow. The main story will be thunderstorms developing in the Western Interior. A Red Flag Warning for lightning has been issued from the Lower Yukon to the North Slopes of the Western AK Range through 10 PM today. Thunderstorms will move north tonight with isolated storms continuing through the night from Galena northward. Tomorrow, expect isolated to scattered storms once again with the greatest risk being from Galena northward.
Temperatures today will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees in the Interior and cooling tomorrow to the upper 60s and low 70s.
Wednesday looks to be a bit less active with isolated storms expected from Galena northward and temperatures largely around 70 degrees.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
The coast will continue to have stratus, areas of fog and a few rain showers through midweek as a high to the north prolongs the onshore flow. Otherwise, isolated showers and storms are expected away from the coast today with widely scattered storms in the Brooks Range. Storms may continue through the night in the Brooks Range with widely scattered storms tomorrow as well. On Wednesday, temperatures will cool a few degrees the thunderstorm risk remaining mostly in the Brooks Range.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
There is quite a bit of uncertainty moving forward as the ridge tries to build back into the Eastern Interior. It does look like a trough moves through the North Slope on Thursday with cooler, northwest flow on Friday across the Central and Eastern Interior which would reduce thunderstorm coverage. Then we will be monitoring the return of a ridge in the Interior this weekend into next week. At this time, it is tough to say where exactly it will be oriented, but increased ridging over Northern AK is looking likely.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



FIRE WEATHER
Red Flag Warnings for lightning have been issued from noon to 10 PM tonight for SW AK from Holy Cross to the North Slopes of the Western Brooks Range as scattered storms are likely. These storms will come with frequent lightning, erratic winds and heavy rain which could help dampen any sparks from lightning but a few fire starts are possible. Temperatures are expected to be around 80 with min RHs near 30%. In the Central and Eastern Interior, the main focus will be the AK Range, Brooks Range and higher terrain while valley locations, including Fairbanks are spared by most thunderstorms today. Tomorrow, the focus moves north from Galena to the Yukon Flats as scattered wet thunderstorms with frequent lightning are looking likely there as well. Temperatures are expected to be around 80 degrees with min RHs around 25 - 35%. Red Flag Warnings have been issued from Bettles to the Yukon Flats on Tuesday from noon to 10PM.

HYDROLOGY
River levels on the North Slope have dropped and there is no immediate concern for flooding. Over the next several days, thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected in the Brooks Range which may lead to near bankfull conditions later this week into the weekend as the water drains out of the Brooks Range along with any additional snowmelt that occurs.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ930-951-952.
Red Flag Warning for AKZ931>933.
PK...None.

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Prudhoe Bay
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Mon -- 01:14 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:18 AM AKDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:48 AM AKDT     0.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:41 PM AKDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:51 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:24 PM AKDT     0.66 feet High Tide
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Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Prudhoe Bay
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Mon -- 01:14 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:34 AM AKDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:57 AM AKDT     0.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:21 PM AKDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:50 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:28 PM AKDT     0.33 feet High Tide
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Prudhoe Bay, Dock, Tide feet

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