NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Elongated southwest to northeast oriented mid-level ridging will remain in place through the period, maintaining unseasonably hot and humid conditions for Saturday, which will more than likely warrant a Heat Advisory. A shortwave trough pivoting through the Midwest into the Ohio Valley along with its surface low pressure system will send a cold front into the western Carolinas tomorrow, which is expected to stall northwest of the area. With moderate instability and little to no convective inhibition, the front will provide a focus for storm development across the Sandhills and western mountains while the Piedmont trough should become more active with scattered convection developing along it as well. Colliding outflow from initial storms will lead to additional development and some organization into short lines may occur along these outflow boundaries. Very weak vertical shear will limit storm longevity and keep the severe threat very low and isolated to wet microbursts.

With southerly winds expected through the night, overnight lows should only fall into the mid-upper 70s. Daytime highs should reach the mid-upper 90s again with heat indices breaching 105F around midday and continuing into or through the afternoon. The one caveat will be the timing and extent of thunderstorm development. In general, it appears most storms should form inland of our western border and spread mainly eastward along outflow boundaries late in the afternoon, with cirrus canopies spreading northeastward. This cirrus could temper heating enough across the inland zones to prevent heat indices from holding at or above 105F through the afternoon if storms develop early enough. Regardless of this specific detail, dangerously hot and humid conditions are expected once again.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
One last day of blistering heat as high pressure off the coast brings a broad swath of heat and humidity into the Southeast. A front will drop into the western Carolinas late in the day and touch off fairly numerous thunderstorms, the coverage of which over western zones will appear to warrant some likely POPs (dropping off sharply as one heads east towards the coast). The storm's late arrival will allow advisory-worthy heat indices once again. The front may not move much heading into Sunday but the mid level ridging overhead weakens sufficiently that thunderstorm coverage may be somewhat elevated above the 30-40 values common to this time of year. More widespread cloud cover is also expected. This should be the main factor in tempering the heat enough to preclude an advisory.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A bit of a complicated forecast for just about the entire period.
The front will remain stalled helping to keep rain chances elevated.
This should be good news given our rainfall deficit. Models are having trouble handling the upper low off the coast, with the GFS having a relatively new idea that it could retrograde this way. As it does so slowly there is some concern that weak subsidence assoc with it could suppress lift locally esp along the coast. Other guidance keep it far enough to be much of a concern. Even farther out in time the moisture from Beryl's remnants could be a player somewhere though that would seemingly stay north of the area.
Temperatures will remain a bit above climatology for most of the period but nothing like the current heat or that of the short term.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR is expected through the TAF period, although some brief MVFR mist at Florence and Lumberton cannot be ruled out near sunrise. Otherwise, high pressure offshore and an approaching front will keep the pressure gradient relatively tight and thereby keep winds going all night.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to prevail outside of convection. A cold front is forecast to stall across the Piedmont amidst plenty of moisture, which should provide a greater coverage of convection than normal, particularly for the inland terminals. Early morning fog and low clouds are possible each morning, especially where precip falls the previous day.

MARINE
Through Saturday... Breezy south to southwesterly winds in the range of 10-20 kts will continue through Saturday around offshore high pressure. Seas will be rather chaotic due to SErly long period swells of 2-3 ft at 9-10 seconds running almost perpendicular to SSWrly wind waves of 2-3 ft at 4 seconds.

Saturday through Wednesday... High pressure will remain in place across the West Atlantic early in the period, with some drift to the east later in the period. This will mean little deviation from the dominance of a southerly wind direction and also wind speeds that taper off late in the weekend. The swell component will dwindle to 8 seconds as its power continues to ease as well. For most of the long term a 2-3 ft predominant wave height will suffice.


ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099- 105-107-109.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ087-096- 099-105-107-109.
High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-055-058-059.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-055-058-059.
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...None.