Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Calabash, NC

UPDATE
Forecast on track for mid to high clouds to increase by morning and cold overnight temps. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Last bit of quiet weather with the main challenge being cold weather tonight due to Arctic high pressure in the area. A Cold Weather Advisory is out for wind chills about 6 above 0 due to north winds tonight paired with lows largely in the upper teens. The winds and increasing cloud cover more towards dawn from SW to NE should inhibit ideal radiational cooling, and perhaps cap lows in the lower to mid 20s for coastal NE SC. Regardless, make sure to take the necessary precautions due to the cold. Tomorrow will see some moderation in temperatures with the increasing cloud cover but cold air will remain in place, highs in the mid to upper 30s. Dry conditions will hold on until the end of the period, where precip chances will start to fill in late Tuesday. Spotty snow should start to fill in by then from the SW, with some low accumulation possible mainly near the coast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
After a small downward trend in expected snow totals yesterday, today's guidance has trended slightly higher. Confidence has thus grown enough that we are issuing a Winter Storm Watch (warning criteria being 2") for our coastal counties as well as Williamsburg and Columbus Counties. The remainder of the area may need a Winter Weather Advisory but given the lesser lead time and the remaining uncertainty regarding inland snow held off on that headline for now. A Cold Weather Advisory Advisory will be needed for all zones. Wednesday will be the coldest day of this arctic shot with highs struggling only into the mid 30s, some 20 degrees below climo. Went a little below guidance Wednesday night, the assumption being that there will be a little snow cover. Most places, even the beaches should dip into the teens. Our chilly spots with pocosin soil in parts of Bladen and Pender Counties could drop below 10 according to some of the chillier NBM percentiles. Also didn't want to go that cold as it will hinge upon how quickly clouds increase, and with how dry it is guidance may be too fast. There is also a small but non- zero chance for some very light freezing rain along the coast towards the end of the period but once again given how dry the surface layer will be this seems doubtful.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure consolidating offshore gradually Thursday while some gradual warming occurs above the boundary layer. This could favor a window of freezing rain in the morning before temperatures warm above freezing. But with the day starting with dewpoints in the low teens this precip should disappear as virga if it even materializes at all. The better rain chances come in the afternoon at which time we should be in the upper 30s. Lastly the light rain could end as a little freezing rain or sleet Thursday night. Friday onward still looking dry and with a gradual return of normal temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions are expected initially with mainly MVFR and possibly brief IFR in mainly snow after 22z. Some sleet may affect the coastal terminals of mainly CRE and MYR briefly, especially between 22z and 01z. Expect ceilings to lower to MVFR between 19z and 21z. Vsbys should be MVFR after 22z in light snow and possibly down to IFR between 02z and 08z in light snow.
The bulk of snow should hold off til aft 00Z Wed. Winds will remain out of the N around 10 to 15 kts with a bit of an increase and gusts after 02z Wed.

Extended Outlook...Back to VFR Wednesday afternoon. Another system could cause flight restrictions on Thursday into Friday.

MARINE
Through Tuesday...Arctic high pressure will maintain NW to NE flow over the waters increasing to near 15-20 kts by Tuesday afternoon.
Some infrequent gusts near 25 kts may be possible but they'll pick up outside of the period with the passage of the storm system paired with an increase in waveheights. Speaking of which, some snow may be possible close to shore towards the end of the period as the system starts to affect the area. Waves 2-4 ft.

Tuesday night through Saturday... Gradient gets tightened by the start of the period between Arctic High to the west and elongated low pressure offshore along a frontal boundary. Also worth noting that some rather unusual snow expected Tuesday night leading to some minor visibility restrictions above those already provided by it being dark. Advisory-worthy winds and seas will be somewhat short- lived however as the approaching high pushes the stronger gradient out to sea. Another low runs up the coast Thursday, becoming much more well defined on Friday. At this time advisory conditions may not return but confidence is lower than with the initial Tuesday/Wednesday setup. Some backswell will be developing late in the period from this departing low.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ087- 096-099-105>110.
Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through Wednesday morning for NCZ099-105>110.
SC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for SCZ017- 023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through Wednesday morning for SCZ039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.