Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 9:05 PM Moonrise 4:06 PM   Moonset 2:07 AM

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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 218 Pm Pdt Mon Jun 17 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm pdt this evening - ..small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening - .
This afternoon - NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.Tonight - W wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less. Tue - SW wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Tue night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less. Juneteenth - SW wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Wed night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less. Thu - SW wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft or less. Thu night - SW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft or less. Fri - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. Fri night - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.

PZZ500 218 Pm Pdt Mon Jun 17 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
widespread strong northerly/northwesterly breezes with near gale- force gusts will persist through Wednesday. Gusty winds will diminish overall beginning Thursday with strong breezes remaining exclusive to the outer waters through the weekend. Significant wave heights will build to 9-11 feet today, abate through Friday, and build back up to 10-12 feet towards the end of the the weekend.

FXUS63 KDDC 171902 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 202 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 60-80% chance for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

- Potential training of thunderstorms along an expected stalled frontal boundary may lead to localized flooding.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of an upper level trough of low pressure dipping southeast through the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, a strong lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in extreme southeast Colorado.

An outside chance (20%) for isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms remains for portions of southwest Kansas this evening as the SREF indicates an upper level trough digging farther southeast into the Great Basin. As the system approaches, a series of H5 vort maxima will eject out of the Southern Rockies into the Western High Plains, interacting with a sharpening dryline near and along the Kansas/Colorado border. Combined with a deep moisture return providing ample instability (MUCAPE values well above 2000-3000 J/kg) within a field of steepening mid-level lapse rates, a few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across portions of southwest Kansas this evening.
This is supported by the HRRR indicating a 10% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding a tenth of an inch for extreme southwest Kansas.

Significant thunderstorm chances (60-80%) return late Tuesday into early Wednesday as medium range ensembles indicate an upper level trough transitioning east through the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains, sending an attendant cold front southeastward into northern Kansas before stalling out Tuesday afternoon, somewhere generally across southwest Kansas into north central Kansas. Ahead of the approaching front, prevailing southerlies will continue to enhance a moisture draw into central and portions of southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints pushing well up into the mid/upper 60s(F), providing more than ample instability. Steepening mid-level lapse rates combined with increasingly favorable dynamic support aloft in form of a field of intensifying southwesterlies spreading east into western Kansas, will support likely thunderstorm development in vicinity of the frontal boundary mid/late afternoon. The HRRR suggests the best chance for storms across west central Kansas and portions of central Kansas where it indicates a 50-70% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding one-quarter of an inch by early Wednesday morning. Considering high QPF fields in excess of 1 to 1.5 inches and possible training due to a projected stalled boundary, localized flooding could be an issue.

Well above normal temperatures are forecast tonight as prevailing southerlies reinforce a warmer air mass across western Kansas. The latest HRRR indicates an 70-90% probability of temperatures dropping below 75F, so expect lows generally in the lower/mid 70s(F).
Unseasonably warm temperatures continue Tuesday with H85 temperatures holding in the lower 20s(C) ahead of the approaching frontal boundary.
The HRRR paints a 70-90% probability of afternoon highs topping 90F with the warmest temperatures in extreme southwest Kansas. Considerably cooler temperatures are forecast behind the stalled frontal boundary Wednesday, especially with increased cloud cover expected. The NBM shows a 70-80% probability of high temperatures climbing above 70F in west central Kansas and the I-70 corridor with a 60-70% probability of highs topping 85F in south central Kansas. More widespread seasonal temperatures are expected through the end of the week as the stalled frontal boundary lifts back north as a warm front. Expect highs generally in the 80s(F) to near 90F Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Tuesday morning. Southerly winds 20 to 30kt with gusts up to 35kt through late afternoon are expected to increase to around 25 to 35kt with gusts up to 45kt this evening as a lee side trough of low pressure further deepens in extreme southeast Colorado.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Wind Watch from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening through late tonight for KSZ043-061-062.

Point San Bruno
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Mon -- 02:36 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:33 AM PDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM PDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:37 PM PDT     2.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:38 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:37 PM PDT     6.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point San Bruno, San Francisco Bay, California, Tide feet

Oyster Point 2.8 mi E
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Mon -- 01:18 AM PDT     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:36 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:51 AM PDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:47 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:00 AM PDT     0.74 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:02 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:42 PM PDT     -0.66 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:27 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:37 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:26 PM PDT     0.64 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:18 PM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Oyster Point 2.8 mi E, South San Francisco Bay, California Current, knots

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Dodge City, KS,