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FXUS65 KREV 032149 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 249 PM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

SYNOPSIS

* High pressure brings a prolonged heatwave starting tomorrow and lasting through the middle of next week.

* Afternoon highs will be 10-20 degrees above average by the weekend resulting in a moderate to major HeatRisk, a Heat Advisory for the California portions of the region, and an Excessive Heat Warning for the western Nevada portions.

* It will remain very dry with typical afternoon breezes, and a very low chance, less than 5%, for precipitation in the weekend.

DISCUSSION

The latest RAP upper air analysis shows high pressure over the Pacific Ocean allowing for the CWA to have a northwesterly flow aloft being underneath the forward portion of an upper air ridge.
Current surface observations along with satellite imagery show sunny skies this afternoon with generally light and variable winds though eastern portions of the CWA are reporting the occasional gust up to around 20 mph. Going forward through the rest of the week and into next week, forecast guidance projects the upper air ridge dominating the upper air pattern over the western CONUS through at least Tuesday night when it may start finally advancing eastward on next Wednesday. With this pattern potentially staying in place, the region looks to see temperatures within the region increase with triple digits possible in some portions for multiple days.

While dry conditions are mostly expected to prevail, the main hazard for the upcoming days will be the above normal temperatures and heat. According to the latest run of the NBM, portions of western NV now see a 20-60% probability of reaching 100F or greater on Independence Day. By Friday, these NBM probabilities increase to 50- 80% with portions of northeastern CA starting to enter into the area of coverage. By Saturday and lasting through the following days through Wednesday, NBM probabilities increase even more to around 60- 95% percent within the CWA As a result of these probabilities showing multiple days of triple digit temperatures as well as the latest HeatRisk guidance being moderate to high in the region, the Excessive Heat Watch for western NV has been upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning beginning on Saturday and lasting through Wednesday at this time. Also, a Heat Advisory has been issued for the eastern CA counties of the CWA with daytime high temperatures ranging between 90-100F with some locations possibly exceeding the century mark. Please see these heat products for more details on this upcoming heat hazard. It is recommended to take precautions during this time such as limiting outdoor activity, taking breaks in a cool area, staying hydrated, and checking in on neighbors and relatives that may be more susceptible to heat related illness.
For more heat safety tips, please visit weather.gov/safety/heat.
It is also worth noting that the Reno Area has not had more than two consecutive days of 105F high temperatures in climate history with the last time of this occurring being in mid July of 2023.
There could be a chance that this consecutive day record is broken along with daily high temperature records with the upcoming heat.

Winds through the period are still are expected to be generally light or typical for this time of the year. However, some models are hinting at a slight uptick with wind gusts up to around 40 mph in mountain areas especially on Sunday. This would bring some concerns for fire weather after a period of hot and dry conditions. Models are also still showing some hints of precipitation on each day beginning Sunday and going into the middle. However, the chances for showers and thunderstorms still remain at or below 5% at this time. Will continue to monitor this in case these chances increase. -078

AVIATION

VFR conditions expect to persist at all REV TAF sites today and going into tomorrow. Models show clear skies over the region with the exception of a few clouds over western NV tonight during the overnight hours. Winds look to be generally 10 kts or less at most sites with the exception of KMMH seeing gusts up to around 20 kts out of the west between 21Z-03Z. Temperatures continue to rise through the weekend resulting in density altitude concerns across the whole area. -078


FIRE WEATHER

No major changes from the previous fire weather forecast package with above normal temperatures and dry conditions prevailing for the rest of the week and into next week. However, winds generally look generally light and unsupportive of critical weather at least through the remainder of this week. However, models are hinting at some gusts near or above 30 mph starting on Sunday, especially over mountain areas. So, will continue to monitor these conditions over the next few days as this could lead to periods of near critical conditions for those localized areas. There are also some very slight chances for showers and thunderstorms starting on Sunday afternoon. However, these chances remain at or below 5%. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Wednesday NVZ002.

Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Wednesday NVZ001-003>005.

CA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Wednesday CAZ070>073.

Sacramento #4
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Wed -- 12:04 AM PDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:19 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:53 AM PDT     3.37 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:46 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 02:15 PM PDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 PM PDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:06 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:33 PM PDT     Sunset
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Clarksburg #4
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Wed -- 03:20 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:44 AM PDT     3.37 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:47 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:45 PM PDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:49 PM PDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:05 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:31 PM PDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
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Clarksburg, Tide feet

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