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FXUS65 KREV 230020 CCB AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
CORRECTED
National Weather Service Reno NV 520 PM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023

SYNOPSIS

Dry conditions with typical fall temperatures continue through the weekend. An upcoming storm is expected to bring gusty winds to the region and chances for rain across northeast California and the Sierra Nevada early next week.

.DISCUSSION…

Fall’s colder touch nipped parts of the western Carson Valley and the northern valleys as morning lows fell close to and hovered around the freezing mark. These colder temperatures will to a lesser extent revisit the region Saturday and Sunday morning as upper winds shift and increased more from the west and southwest through the weekend. With the exception of more enhanced breezes Sunday across northeast CA and western NV north of I-80, this upcoming weekend looks to remain mostly mild with near average daytime temperatures, fair skies, and relatively lighter winds for the remainder of the region. Whether you’re boating on Lake Tahoe, recreating across those favorite back country Sierra locales, or making that ride to Street Vibrations, you won’t be disappointed with the weather this weekend. This may be the last time to take advantage of these nicer conditions as more unsettled fall-like weather rolls into the area later Sunday night into early next week.

A strongly forced low pressure system supported by a moderate AR will lift northeast into Pacific Northwest Sunday. An attendant cold front driving east into northern CA overnight Sunday into Monday with blended guidance showing an increased chance (15-30%)
for measurable precipitation moving into northeast CA through Monday. But ensemble guidance does tease at the notion of a few isolated showers popping up over the Sierra around the Lake Tahoe basin and northwest into Plumas-Lassen counties later Sunday afternoon and evening. Blended guidance so far projects as least 0.01-0.30 inches of total rainfall accompanying the main push of moisture inland into northeast CA, the Sierra Crest around the Lake Tahoe basin, and far northern Washoe county later Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Much of the region will be rain shadowed as little precipitation is projected to spillover the Sierra into western Nevada as the front weakens quickly as it lifts into northern NV.

As the cold front draws closer and passes through the region, the increased tightening of thermal and pressure gradients will produce enhanced breezes with gusts to 30+ mph that approach near advisory level for Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake early Monday afternoon through early evening. These enhanced west-southwest breezes will also lead to elevated fire weather conditions across isolated areas of northeast CA and northern Washoe County later Sunday through Monday. This system will be the opening salvo of active weather through the remainder of the long-term period. Welcome Fall! -Amanda

AVIATION

* Expect VFR conditions with light diurnally terrain driven winds overnight into Saturday morning. The only exception will be Martis valley (KTRK) as a brief 3-4 hour window opens up for FG/FZFG Friday morning.

* Main terminals in the Sierra (KTRK, KTVL, KSVE) and far western NV (KRNO, KCXP, KMEV) will see breezy afternoon southwest winds gusting to 20kts between 20Z-03Z. Brief periods of turbulence are also possible over Sierra terminals late Saturday afternoon into the evening.

* More unsettled weather is expected late Sunday into early next week with enhanced breezes, periods of LLWS and turbulence over the Sierra, and increased chances (20-40%) for showers over the Sierra Front to northeast CA to include northwest NV.

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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