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GMZ044 Expires:202312072130;;060190 Fzus52 Kkey 071529 Cwfkey
coastal waters forecast for the florida keys national weather service key west fl 1029 am est Thu dec 7 2023
florida bay, hawk channel and straits of florida from ocean reef to south of dry tortugas, and the extreme southeastern gulf of mexico, including the florida keys national marine sanctuary
seas are given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz042>044-072130- hawk channel from ocean reef to craig key out to the reef- hawk channel from craig key to west end of seven mile bridge out to the reef- hawk channel from west end of seven mile bridge to halfmoon shoal out to the reef- 1029 am est Thu dec 7 2023
.small craft should exercise caution until winds decrease...
This afternoon..North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast and decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, except 3 to 5 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming a moderate chop.
Tonight..Northeast to east winds near 15 knots, becoming east. Seas 2 to 3 feet, except 3 to 4 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters a moderate chop.
Friday..East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Friday night..East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Saturday night..East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. NEarshore waters choppy, becoming a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East to southeast winds near 15 knots, becoming southeast to south and decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop, becoming a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South to southwest winds near 10 knots, becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas subsiding to around 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop, becoming choppy. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest to north winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north to northeast. Seas building to 2 to 3 feet, except building to 4 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters choppy. Isolated showers.
Monday night..Northeast winds near 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, except 4 to 6 feet west of cosgrove shoal light. NEarshore waters rough. Isolated showers.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 1029 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis..Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will gradually veer from the northeast to the southeast this afternoon through Saturday night, as high pressure over the southeast moves eastward into the western north atlantic. Another cold front will approach the florida keys coastal waters on Sunday and Sunday night, with slackening breezes and a bout of unsettled weather possible ahead of the front. Fresh to strong northeast breezes are expected in the wake of the frontal passage for Monday.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of december 05...
56 nm south of dry tortugas light...on loggerhead key. 20 nm south of cosgrove shoal light...off the marquesas keys. 15 nm south of sand key light...off key west. 17 nm south of looe key...off big pine key. 20 nm south of sombrero key light...off marathon. 12 nm southeast of alligator reef light...off islamorada. 9 nm southeast of molasses reef light...off key largo. 2 nm east of carysfort reef light...off ocean reef.
gulf stream information courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KKEY 071954 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 254 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023 GOES-16 visible satellite imagery highlights a "shadow" of clear skies south of the Florida Mainland. This is likely a reflection of the relatively cooler, shallow bayside coastal waters north of the Middle and Upper Keys. The winds observed across the Middle and Upper Keys as well as the adjacent nearshore coastal waters also reflect this, with a much more northerly component to the winds than what was reflected in all available mesoscale and global model guidance. This is a vector response to the gradient between the cooler water to the north of the island chain and the warmer water to the south of the chain. Temperatures are also consistent this mesoscale feature, with cool advection evident in the Upper Keys, where temperatures have struggled to climb to 70F island chain. Across the Lower Keys, with an observed more easterly component to the surface winds, temperatures were able to reach the mid 70s this afternoon.

A generally routine forecast for the next 48 hours or so. A surface area of high pressure will continue to slide eastward, reaching the western Atlantic overnight tonight through Friday. Over time, winds will eventually clock around to the east or east to southeast (even in the stubborn Upper Keys) through Saturday.
Forecast soundings indicate associated low-level veering and subtle boundary layer moistening may spark a few isolated showers for Friday through Saturday night. However, most island communities should remain rain free.

The next cold front is associated with a shortwave trough that is just now approaching the Pacific Northwest. This feature will dig southward, with the base of the trough reaching the northern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday afternoon. As can be expected with a feature that is currently over 3000 miles away, there remains a bit of uncertainty regarding how far south the trough will dig as it approaches the Florida Peninsula as well as the timing. As of now, scientific reasoning suggests decent low-level veering, but limited upper- level divergence to support deeper thunderstorm growth as the front pushes through late Sunday night or early Monday morning. However, mention of at least slight chance of thunder is certainly warranted, especially Sunday evening and in the early overnight hours.

In contrast to the past cold front that pushed through the Florida Keys, cold advection looks to be much more limited with this frontal passage. The front will bring temperatures back down to near normal for this time of year for much of next week, as well as a resumption of breezy conditions. Most ensemble guidance suggests deeper, tropical moisture in the western Caribbean will glide northeastward towards the Florida Keys for the middle to latter part of next week. Plenty of time to hammer out the details, but it is worth mentioning that there is relatively high confidence in above normal measurable rain chances for this period.

MARINE
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in the Straits of Florida tonight. From synopsis, moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will gradually veer from the northeast to the southeast tonight through Saturday night, as high pressure over the Southeast moves eastward into the western North Atlantic. Another cold front will approach the Florida Keys coastal waters late Sunday and Sunday night, with slackening breezes and a bout of unsettled weather possible ahead of the front. Fresh to strong northeast breezes are expected in the wake of the frontal passage for Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH today. Winds will veer easterly while a maritime air mass moves over the Keys and begins to replace the deep layers of dry air present over the past few days.
Low potential exists for a second layer of clouds at FL050, which is why it was left out of the TAF.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 69 80 73 82 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 68 81 73 83 / 10 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.

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Key Haven - Stock Island Channel
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Thu -- 01:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:16 AM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:52 AM EST     0.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:03 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:12 PM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:06 PM EST     1.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Key Haven - Stock Island Channel, Florida, Tide feet

Key West
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Thu -- 12:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:21 AM EST     0.65 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:43 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:05 AM EST     -1.31 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:03 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:04 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:30 PM EST     0.52 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:42 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:18 PM EST     -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Key West, Florida Current, knots

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Key West, FL,