Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stock Island, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:56PM Thursday August 22, 2019 10:04 PM EDT (02:04 UTC) Moonrise 11:28PMMoonset 11:58AM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ044 Expires:201908230230;;049306 Fzus52 Kkey 222031 Cwfkey Coastal Waters Forecast For The Florida Keys National Weather Service Key West Fl 431 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019 Florida Bay...hawk Channel And Straits Of Florida From Ocean Reef To South Of Dry Tortugas...and The Extreme Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico...including The Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Gmz042>044-230230- Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 431 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Tonight..North to northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast and increasing to near 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot, building to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east to southeast in the afternoon. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South to southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night and Monday..South winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night and Tuesday..Southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Variable winds near 5 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stock Island, FL
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location: 24.57, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Key West, FL
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Fxus62 kkey 221851
afdkey
area forecast discussion
national weather service key west fl
251 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Short term (tonight through Monday)
a surface low pressure trough is currently located near andros
island, leading to gentle northeasterly breezes over the keys this
afternoon. The northeast steering flow will try to carry
convection currently over the coast of mainland monroe county
southwest toward the keys. The consensus among mesoscale models is
that the mainland-borne convection will fall apart is it tries to
swing southwest through the gulf and bayside waters. This means
convection may have a hard time reaching all the way down to key
west this evening. However, it stands a better chance of
spreading out into the upper keys and spreading into our deep
southeast gulf waters.

The bahamian trough will continue westward tonight and reach the
eastern straits of florida on Friday morning. The deepest moisture
will try to swing into southeast florida on Friday, clipping the
upper keys. However, the trough axis and general cyclonic flow
will enhance lift over the entire forecast area in the richly
moist air mass. Above-climo 50-60 pops are forecast on Friday,
with the higher chances over the upper keys.

The trough will start to extend and then move north of the
forecast area on Saturday. The trough axis itself may never fully
traverse the entire forecast area. With lower pressure to our
north, south or even southwesterly flow will develop from
Saturday through Monday. The air mass will continue to be very
moist on Saturday before heart of the moistest air exits well off
to the north and northeast. So pops will trend slowly downward on
Sunday and Monday. During the period of southerly flow, cuban
diurnal influences will dictate the daily rhythm of our
convection. This means that convection will be suppressed during
the afternoon hours over the keys and straits due to cuban
shadowing. As the shadow wipes out during nighttime hours,
leftovers of afternoon cuban convection will try to spread north
across the straits, possibly reaching the keys.

Long term (Tuesday through next Thursday)
a 500 mb subtropical high south of bermuda on Sunday will
retrograde to the west, passing west across the florida peninsula
on Tuesday. Rain chances will fall back to near or slightly below
normal as high pressure exerts its strongest influence on Tuesday.

High pressure will continue spreading westward across the gulf on
Wednesday, with light northwesterly surface winds over the keys.

Near or slightly below normal pop will continue.

As high pressure exits across the western gulf next Thursday, we
will be left under a weakness in the subtropical ridge axis. This
could allow rain chances to creep up a little, so the official
forecast GOES with a near climo chance of rain.

Marine
A low pressure trough over the bahamas will move westward into the
eastern straits by Friday morning, then lift out to the north over
the weekend. Our gentle northeasterly breezes today will become
southeasterly on Friday over the eastern straits as the trough
enters out eastern waters. Once the trough lifts out to the north,
gentle to moderate southerlies will develop across all waters on
from Saturday through Monday. An atlantic ridge axis will expand
west across the southern florida peninsula on Tuesday, introducing
a more easterly component to the breeze.

The main risk to mariners through this weekend will come from
locally gusty winds in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will run above the seasonal norm
through Saturday and possibly Sunday.

Aviation
Vfr conditions will prevail at the island terminals tonight. With
that said, a wetter than normal pattern is in place across the
area. As a result, there will be a good chance for a round or two
of subVFR conditions due to passing showers an possible
thunderstorms. Convection aside, winds will be light and primarily
out of the north to northeast.

Climate
In 1947, the daily record low temperature of 72 degrees was last
recorded in key west. Temperature records date back to 1872.

Preliminary point temps pops
Key west 81 89 81 89 40 50 40 50
marathon 81 92 81 92 50 50 50 50

Key watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gm... None.

Public marine fire... Haner
aviation nowcasts... .11
data collection... ... Bt
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KYWF1 - 8724580 - Key West, FL 3 mi52 min 84°F 90°F1015.4 hPa
SANF1 - Sand Key, FL 10 mi24 min NE 8.9 G 12 84°F 1014.1 hPa77°F
42095 16 mi64 min 87°F1 ft
SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL 34 mi24 min NE 8 G 9.9 84°F 1015.3 hPa76°F
VCAF1 - 8723970 - Vaca Key, FL 35 mi46 min 84°F 89°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Key West, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Key West International Airport, FL1 mi3.2 hrsNNE 810.00 miFair87°F75°F70%1014.5 hPa
Key West Naval Air Station, FL3 mi2.2 hrsNE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy87°F75°F67%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEYW

Wind History from EYW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4----Calm----------N5NW3NW4N7----5NE9N8N8N8N10
G16
N8--NE5
1 day ago------------------E6SE8----SE7NE8
G16
E6E8SE9--S85SE6E10E4
2 days agoE11--------------SE12SE11SE11SE11SW11NW9S4SE9SE13SE11SE13
G20
----SE10E9SE11

Tide / Current Tables for Cow Key Channel, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Key West, Florida Current
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Key West
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:17 AM EDT     -1.63 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:10 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:32 PM EDT     0.78 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:38 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:55 PM EDT     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:49 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.1-0.3-0.8-1.3-1.6-1.5-1.2-0.7-0.10.40.70.70.50.2-0.2-0.7-1.1-1.3-1.1-0.8-0.40.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Key West, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Key West, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.