Friday, October18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orlando, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 6:54PM Friday October 18, 2019 8:23 PM EDT (00:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:27PMMoonset 10:41AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 351 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm edt this evening through late Saturday night...
Tonight..East winds 15 knots becoming southeast and increasing to 20 to 25 knots late. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 351 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
Synopsis..A frontal boundary near lake okeechobee late this afternoon will lift back north across the local atlantic waters through tonight as tropical storm nestor moves northeast over the gulf of mexico and reaches onshore the western florida panhandle early Saturday. This system will then continue to move across the southeast u.s. Saturday then offshore the mid atlantic coast Sunday. This will drag the front back south across central florida. Winds will veer to southeasterly and strengthen tonight then become southwest Saturday through Saturday evening. Boating conditions will deteriorate rapidly by this evening, and remain poor to hazardous through Saturday night.
Gulf stream hazards..Southeast winds increasing to around 20 knots this evening will cause seas to build to between 6 and 7 feet north from cape canaveral northward by late tonight. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday october 15th. 40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 32 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 28 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 21 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orlando, FL
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location: 28.42, -81.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 181956
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
356 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019

Rain chances increase tonight. Potential for a few
severe storms tornadoes from late this eve into early sat
as front lifts northward through ec fl...

Discussion
Through tonight-Saturday... Only a few light showers sprinkles
over ec fl as of mid afternoon. This will change this evening as
frontal boundary draped across lake okeechobee region lifts
northward as tropical storm nestor moves NE over the gulf of
mexico. Latest NHC forecast of nestor brings the center onshore
the western fl panhandle early Sat around daybreak. System will
then lift NE rapidly up through the SE CONUS Saturday. Strong mid-
upper forcing continues into mid day before pulling NE of the
area late in the day. 0-1km helicity values which start off around
150-200m2 s2 osecola brevard cos late this evening extending
northward overnight and increasing to arnd 200-300m2 s2
lake volusia Sat midday. This supports a threat for rotating
storms isold tornadoes, especially across the north half of the
cwa. Pops were kept at categorical (80-90) through sat. Precip
coverage will begin decreasing from nw-se during Sat afternoon.

Saturday night-Sunday... (edited previous) latest NHC forecast for
nestor brings center of the post-tropical system into nc by
sunrise sun, then offshore the mid atlc coast late in the day.Some
lingering showers possible, mainly in the evening as some mid
level vort spokes rotate across the region. Isolated to scattered
diurnally forced showers may redevelop sun, mainly early, before
activity wanes as drier air filters into the region. Temps m-u80s
u60s- l70s for sun.

Monday-Thursday... (previous) an amplifying mid-upper trough will
move east from the central CONUS mon-tue through the eastern conus
through mid week, temporarily flattening the SE CONUS ridge,
before it rebuilds into late week. Weak surface high pressure
which settles in behind the departing weekend low weakens and
shifts east ahead of a cold front, which sags through ecfl tue
night. North of the front, high pressure ridge will build from the
se CONUS eastward into the western atlc. Brief northerly post
frontal wind surge will push a short lived pool of drier cooler
air across the region through Wed before winds veer quickly to ne
late Wednesday and ene-e Thursday.

Lingering shower storm chances mon-tue, then drying out starting
wed, with a small marine shower threat for the far south through
thu night. Above normal temps through Tue ahead of the cool front,
followed by cooler (near normal) maxes wed-thu, but mins remaining
near to above normal, especially along the coast, as winds quickly
veer onshore.

Aviation PrevailingVFR thru the afternoon, with brief MVFR
reductions for northern terminals in light shra. After 20z, sct
shra will push northeast from the gulf coast as TS nestor
approaches the peninsula. Models favor coverage for interior
terminals from 00-06z, where MVFR ifr conditions possible as
showers push to the coast. Shra iso tsra prevailing overnight,
with increasing winds as nestor moves closer. Mention of wind
shear may need to be added for overnight hours, as sfc wind should
remain below 10 kt before increasing towards daybreak. Confidence
is low for severe wx overnight and early Saturday, thus not
including in TAF at this time.

Marine
Tonight... Winds will veer to se-sse and increase tonight as
tropical storm nestor moves NE over the gulf. An SCA will be in
effect for nearshore offshore legs from sebastian northward after
10 pm, with cautionary headlines added to the southern legs for
increasing winds overnight. Also added a mention in for a few
gusts to gale force for 20-60 nm offshore volusia coast for late
tonight. Seas will build in response to the increasing winds with
showers and squalls adding to the inclement conditions.

Saturday-Tuesday... (edited previous) SCA conditions to continue
for the northern and central waters through sat-sat night and will
likely need caution headlines again south of sebastian inlet.

Added in a mention for a few gusts to gale force Saturday morning
for the leg 20-60 nm offshore volusia coast. Winds seas quickly
subside Sun as stout sw-w flow rapidly slackens behind the
departing surface low. Winds and seas briefly increase again tue
ahead of the next fropa, followed by quick wind shift and surge
out of the n-ne late Tue night, which may warrant cautionary
headlines.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 71 84 69 83 90 90 30 10
mco 70 84 70 87 90 90 30 20
mlb 74 84 73 86 80 90 30 30
vrb 75 83 74 86 90 90 40 40
lee 68 83 68 85 90 80 30 10
sfb 69 84 69 85 90 90 30 20
orl 70 84 70 86 90 90 30 20
fpr 74 83 74 86 90 90 40 40

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 am edt Sunday
for flagler beach to volusia-brevard county line 0-20 nm-
flagler beach to volusia-brevard county line 20-60 nm-
volusia-brevard county line to sebastian inlet 0-20 nm-
volusia-brevard county line to sebastian inlet 20-60 nm.

Forecast grids... Glitto
impact wx radar... .Kelly
aviation... Smith


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 37 mi53 min E 8.9 G 14 78°F 82°F1014 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 41 mi83 min 81°F2 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 59 mi33 min E 18 G 21 79°F 83°F2 ft1013.2 hPa69°F
TPAF1 - 8726694 - TPA Cruise Terminal 2, Tampa, FL 69 mi53 min NE 7 G 9.9

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orlando International Airport, FL1 mi30 minENE 510.00 miLight Rain76°F68°F77%1012.3 hPa
Orlando Executive Airport, FL9 mi30 minESE 310.00 miLight Rain75°F66°F76%1013.1 hPa
Kissimmee Gateway Airport, FL12 mi87 minE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F71°F79%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCO

Wind History from MCO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4NW5NE4CalmCalmN5N6N7N5NE7N4NE4NE6NE6E6NE5E5E5E4E6NE114E8
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Tide / Current Tables for Titusville, Indian River, Florida
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Titusville
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:26 AM EDT     4.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:41 AM EDT     4.37 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:13 PM EDT     4.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:00 PM EDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.44.44.44.44.44.44.44.44.44.44.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.34.44.44.44.44.44.4

Tide / Current Tables for Trident Pier, Port Canaveral, Florida
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Trident Pier
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:57 AM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:29 AM EDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:51 PM EDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:44 PM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.42.82.11.510.811.62.43.23.94.44.43.93.22.41.71.211.31.82.433.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.