Wednesday, July15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Orlando, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 8:25PM Wednesday July 15, 2020 5:37 AM EDT (09:37 UTC) Moonrise 1:28AMMoonset 2:59PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 425 Am Edt Wed Jul 15 2020
Today..Northwest winds 5 knots becoming east late in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 knots. Seas 2 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 425 Am Edt Wed Jul 15 2020
Synopsis..Favorable boating conditions will prevail over the atlantic through Thursday, with seas 1 to 2 feet near shore and up to 3 feet well offshore. Deep easterly flow will develop late this week through the weekend, with seas building to between 2 and 3 feet near shore and 4 feet well offshore. A weak inverted trough will bring an increase in coverage of showers and a few storms Friday through Saturday.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Wednesday, july 15th. 41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 13 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 7 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orlando, FL
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location: 28.42, -81.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 150756 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 355 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

DISCUSSION.

. Above Normal Rain Chances Through the Middle of Next Week .

Today-Tonight . Yet another July day with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected later, however, today will serve as a transition in the large scale pattern for the remainder of the week. Aloft, a shortwave trough over the peninsula will drift west along the northern Gulf Coast as surface high pressure builds back towards the region. With the Atlantic ridge axis drifting northward, dominant westerly flow will become light and variable early this morning, allowing for the development of both the west and east coast sea breezes by mid to late morning. By early afternoon, the large scale flow regime will shift to onshore but remain light through the rest of the day. Thus, the west and east coast breezes will progress inland equally, colliding at the interior midpoint of the peninsula by mid afternoon.

Deep-layer moisture over FL (PW over 2.00" according to GOES Total PW) will offer sufficient ingredients for rain chances over 50% this afternoon, with the most favorable development area for strong storms across the interior, as mentioned. Weak steering flow will lead to slow storm motion, which could contribute to localized flooding for locations that receive the heaviest downpours. Meso models indicate clearing of activity soon after sunset, but keeping a low end chance for showers and storms over Lake County through sunset for any remnant boundary-induced activity.

Today will be the final day of highs topping out in the mid 90s; even so, the early development of the east coast sea breeze may even keep highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees for locations at the coast. Heat index values across the interior will climb to near 105 degrees. Overnight low temps will drop to the lower 70s across the interior, but remain in the mid to upper 70s for coastal locations.

Thursday-Next Wednesday . A strong W-E elongated mid level ridge builds across the midsection of the CONUS from late this week well into the middle of next week. This will place ECFL in a persistent pattern of light-moderate deep layer easterly flow. While this is often a climatologically favored pattern during the wet season, it has been somewhat of an exception to the anomalous W-SW flow that has prevailed across ECFL thus far. And while the setup often leads a drier, subsident air mass aloft, the ridge axis is far enough north that this won't be the case. In fact, after Thu (which may be the driest of the next 8 days), just the opposite looks to occur.

A series of weak inverted mid level vort lobes traverse westward across Florida, coupled with subtle easterly ripples and their associated pooled moisture. The most pronounced of these looks to be Fri, when a lobe of Sfc-H85 vorticity fractures off a decaying front over the westward Atlantic and gets shunted SW-W beneath the ridge and across FL.

Otherwise, even with the setup in place, the NBM POPs (60-80+) look a little too high for most days. As such have shaved these back by a good 10 percent, capping them at 70, highest south/inland. Based on the moisture fields showing lower deep layer mean RH both Sun and next Wed, it seems like we should have lower coverage of storms (by 10 to perhaps 20 percent) than currently indicated in the grids/ZFP. However, in the interest of consistency, for now have not lowered POPs quite as much as I would prefer for those two days.

Unlike the past few weeks, temps look closer to normal through the period . perhaps a bit below on those days with the highest coverage of precip.

AVIATION. Light and variable winds overnight will shift easterly after 16Z for coastal terminals with the development of the east coast sea breeze. As the boundary presses inland, iso/sct TSRA will develop, becoming numerous after 20Z near and west of KMCO. Have only included TEMPO to reflect thunderstorms for MCO/LEE, but will likely be added for SFB/ISM with next package. Lingering SHRA across interior terminals after 00Z, but clearing prior to midnight. Generally VFR outside of convection.

MARINE. Today-Tonight . Favorable boating conditions today as westerly winds shift onshore by the afternoon, increasing to near 10 knots. Seas 1-2 ft in the nearshore waters, 2-3 ft offshore. Most thunderstorm activity should remain away from the Atlantic waters, although activity over the Gulf Stream is possible overnight.

Thursday-Sunday . Persistent E to ESE flow will prevails through the period with seas 2-3ft along the immediate coast and 3-4ft well offshore. The threat posed to mariners by strong offshore moving storms will be minimal, with scattered to numerous showers moving E-W, along with a few TS.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 91 76 90 76 / 20 10 20 10 MCO 92 75 92 75 / 50 20 30 10 MLB 89 77 89 77 / 30 10 30 20 VRB 89 75 89 76 / 20 10 30 30 LEE 93 76 94 75 / 60 30 30 10 SFB 94 75 93 74 / 40 20 30 10 ORL 92 75 92 75 / 50 20 30 10 FPR 89 76 91 77 / 30 10 30 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION . Smith LONG TERM . Cristaldi


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 37 mi67 min 81°F
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 41 mi41 min 81°F1 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 59 mi27 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 83°F 86°F1016 hPa76°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orlando International Airport, FL1 mi44 minS 310.00 miFair77°F75°F94%1016.3 hPa
Orlando Executive Airport, FL9 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair80°F73°F82%1016.8 hPa
Kissimmee Gateway Airport, FL12 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair78°F75°F93%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCO

Wind History from MCO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW4W4W7W8NW55W9W6W7W8W9W7W12
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1 day agoSW3SW3S33SW8SW5
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2 days agoS6W4S3SW6SW5SW6W4--SW644S12S10S16S6S6SW7S6SW6SW4S5S5SW4S5

Tide / Current Tables for Titusville, Indian River, Florida
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Titusville
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:31 AM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:07 AM EDT     3.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:51 PM EDT     3.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:25 PM EDT     3.69 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.73.7

Tide / Current Tables for Trident Pier, Port Canaveral, Florida
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Trident Pier
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:53 AM EDT     2.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:02 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:45 PM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:56 PM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.82.32.72.82.62.21.610.50.30.40.91.62.333.43.53.32.82.21.510.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.