Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rosenberg, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

There is a big, bright (well, depending on the color scales you may be using) attention-grabbing weather detail for our area very early this morning, but it is not currently in Southeast Texas.
No, you need to look back at a line of storms coming out of the Hill Country and beginning to bear down on the I-35 corridor in Central Texas. Though the large majority of the line is not currently severe, it will continue to make its way to the east and towards our area.

Because this evolution is going to be driven almost entirely by the mesoscale features of this complex, there will remain uncertainties about how this line impacts us pretty much until it pushes off the coast and over the Gulf. But, the HRRR does seem to be handling the broad strokes of this line fairly well, and it does also generally match up with my mental model of the environment, so I feel relatively confident about what's coming up, albeit not in a hyperspecific way. It seems pretty reasonable to expect the line to reach the westernmost corner of our area around sunrise, give or take an hour - so Caldwell, Brenham, Bryan/College Station, y'all are first up! It should continue eastward across the area through the morning, reaching the coast around mid-day or early afternoon.

The line is certainly not quite as strong as it was a couple of hours ago, which makes sense as there is likely at least a little bit of capping and slight elevation of the convection from a nocturnal inversion. Into the early morning, this will likely keep the intensity of the storms somewhat moderated, though the Geostationary Lightning Mapper and ground-based lightning networks pretty solidly indicate that we're still getting updrafts strong enough to keep storms going. So, until a little bit after sunrise, we should expect storms, but with a somewhat low ceiling on them.
Of course, even these storms come complete with lightning, locally heavy rain, and gusty wind threats, just not as damaging as the severe warnings that they were prompting earlier in the night.

Things may start to get a bit more interesting later in the morning once the sun starts to get a bit higher. The HRRR tends to suggest around 8 or 9 am, the line will start to rejuvenate some - likely as we further minimize or eliminate the weak capping over the area
I am
not sure quite how effective this will be as the cirrus shield from the line is already beginning the impinge on the edge of the Houston metro. There's a good chance insolation will be hampered be a veil of high cloud cover. So, while a ramp up in storm intensity seems realistic, I would not expect the situation to significantly change - that is, I'm not expecting a serious severe threat to emerge. Stepping back to the guidance, modeled peak winds in the 00Z HRRR are almost entirely below 45 mph, and the HRRR probabilities of wind speeds above 35 mph peaks out around 10 percent.

By mid-day or early afternoon, this line should push off the coast and over the Gulf, which still leaves us an afternoon to try to build back some isolated to scattered convection. How successful that is will depend highly on just how widespread and strong the morning convection is. I'd expect that we should still manage some showers here and there, but nothing that matches this line's intensity. And really, this puts us back into more of a diurnal pattern as any afternoon activity fades with sundown, we have a relatively dry night with nocturnal stratus. This stratus lifts and scatters through the morning, setting us up for another afternoon tomorrow with some isolated to scattered showers and storms - for the time being, locations farther inland seem more favored - and then I bet you don't need me to tell you how tomorrow night goes, you've read it already...

LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Chances for showers/storms continue into Friday mainly for areas north of I-10 as another embedded shortwave passes through the area.
PW values will still generally be near the 90th percentile (~1.60"), so we could see some locally heavy downpours as we have seen over the past few days. However, going into late Friday, we'll begin to see mid to upper level ridging build in that'll prevail into early next week. This will take rain chances on a decreasing trend and temperatures on an increasing trend heading into the weekend...especially with 850mb temperatures trending towards the 90th percentile going into the weekend/early next week. So, that means we'll go from high temperatures in the upper 80s on Friday and add a degree or two each day going into early next week. That'll take us with plenty of locations around or above the 90°F mark on Monday.

Rain chances do look to return around the middle part of next week as an upper level trough approaches from the western CONUS and pushes the ridge axis eastward. This next system may have another frontal boundary nearby with plenty of moisture to work with, so we'll have to monitor for another round of heavy rain potential...just keep in mind there's still a lot uncertainty. The increasing rain chances does trim down temperatures a bit. Speaking of temperatures, expect low temperatures to range from the upper 60s to low 70s through the weekend and in the low to mid 70s early next week.

Batiste

AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

MVFR ceilings will steadily fill in from south to north over the next few hours. A few spots (SGR/LBX/CXO) may see intermittent decreased visibilities due to patchy fog, but upper level cloud cover streaming in from the west may inhibit its development.
Speaking of that, we are monitoring a line of strong thunderstorms over Central Texas currently that is anticipated to move into Southeast Texas later this morning. The timing remains uncertain as high-resolution model guidance is unsure on if we get a line of storms from the west, from the northwest, or a combination of both...so take the timing of the PROB30s in the TAFs with a grain of salt.

Based on radar trends and synoptic flow aloft, we are leaning towards the western line of storms being the main show later this morning into the afternoon hours. Winds will be locally higher around these storms, but prevailing winds will be southeasterly around 8-12kt in the morning and afternoon. Scattered showers/storms may linger behind the main line, but there's also potential for all of the energy to be taken out of the atmosphere leaving nothing behind the line of storms. So, to say that uncertain is high would be an understatement. MVFR ceilings are expected to fill in again late Wednesday night from south to north...and those decreased ceilings may linger along the coast throughout the day.

Batiste

MARINE
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Latest runs of high resolution model guidance shows a cluster of thunderstorms moving into Southeast Texas and off the coast on Wednesday late morning/afternoon. Exact timing is still a bit uncertain at the moment, but strong winds, locally higher seas, frequent lightning, and heavy rain will be possible with these storms as they push into the bays and off the coast. Outside of that, light to occasionally moderate southeasterly winds will persist throughout the week. Around and after midweek, an extended southeasterly fetch develops across the Gulf leading to an increase in winds and wave heights potentially reaching caution flag criteria. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist throughout most of the week as Gulf moisture interacts with various upper level disturbances, but will generally decrease each day after today.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 69 85 69 86 / 30 50 10 40 Houston (IAH) 71 84 71 86 / 20 20 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 73 82 73 80 / 10 10 10 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.