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GMZ432 Calcasieu Lake- 250 Am Cst Sat Dec 2 2023
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cst this morning...
Today..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest early. Lake waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this morning. Patchy dense fog this morning.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Lake waters light chop.
Sunday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Lake waters light chop.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Lake waters smooth.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 250 Am Cst Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis..
areas of dense fog will continue this morning as warm moist air continues over the cooler sea surface. Some improvement in visibilities is expected across the western coastal waters after daybreak, with areas of dense fog lingering across the coastal waters east of cameron through mid afternoon. Lingering showers and Thunderstorms can be expected mainly across the eastern coastal waters today, diminishing by late afternoon and evening as a weak cool front brings light northwesterly winds across the coastal waters. Winds will eventually become light and variable by Sunday as the weak surface high pressure moves over the area.

FXUS64 KLCH 021801 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1201 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday night)

Wx map shows weak cool front from Jasper, TX to Fort Johnson and Alexandria, LA where northerly winds and slightly cooler temperatures and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s preside. Ahead of the front, temperatures and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s continue, along with areas of fog, especially near the inland lakes/bays and coast. Radar showing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continuing mainly over Acadiana and adjacent coastal waters.
Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be possible over Acadiana through 6 AM. This area remains under a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (Level 2 of 4) through 6 AM CST. The ongoing Flood Watch remains unchanged, and continues through 6 AM CST.

For Severe Weather potential, SPC has the area along and south of the I-10 corridor across South Central Louisiana in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms through 6 AM CST. For the most part, the thunderstorms have decreased in intensity, and the threat continues to diminish this morning.

For today, the chances of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to diminish as the main area of moisture and lift pushes slowly southeast. No severe or excessive rainfall outlooks for our area after 6 AM CST. Highs in the lower to mid 70s.

For tonight and Sunday, the longwave mid to upper level trough axis from the Midwest southward to Texas/Louisiana will be moving slowly eastward. Slightly cooler air will continue to filter across the area. Expect lows Sunday in the mid to upper 40s across Inland Southeast Texas & Central Louisiana, and ranging through the 50s further south. Highs in the upper 60s to near 70.

For Sunday night and Monday, the longwave trough deepens over the Eastern U.S. which will finally allow for more northwest flow aloft and deeper layer drier and cooler air to filter across the area. Thus, likely to see some clearing north of I-10. Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s Monday morning with highs in the mid 60s.

08/DML

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)

Tuesday continues with split flow aloft as the subtropical jet separates over the SW CONUS with the Polar Jet draped over the northern states. This pattern will keep stronger cold air and active weather outside the area for much of the long range. Locally, high pressure will continue to broaden over the Gulf Coast with forecast soundings showing a very dry atmosphere. Meanwhile, over the southern Plains, a cold front will bow southward over the Mississippi Valley through Wednesday. Highs will trend around climatological norms Tuesday and Wednesday as the front stalls / dissipates along and east of the ARKLATEX area. Surface high pressure following the front will then reinforce subsidence in the area while becoming more concentric over the SE CONUS leading to warm / humid air advection across the deep south. Naturally temperatures will trend up toward the lower 70’s closing out the end of the work week and into early weekend.

Upstream our next potential shortwave to facilitate active weather begins to amplify over the NW CONUS on Friday. Beyond then uncertainty greatly increases as surface low pressure develops and deepens over the Rockies. With the current SW’ly subtropical pattern, guidance hints at a week jet max to develop over the deep south / Gulf of Mexico Saturday which would allow broad surface troughing to develop over the western Gulf. For now, there is enough signal present to bring light POPs back into the forecast during the weekend as WAA convection continues to moisten the lower atmosphere.

Kowalski/30

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

There have been slight improvements out of LIFR through the morning as CIGs have started to lift and misty / foggy conditions have come to an end. A short reprieve will exist going through the afternoon and early evening hours before we see conditions begin to worsen again later in the evening through overnight hours.

MARINE

Areas of dense fog will continue this morning as warm moist air continues over the cooler sea surface. Some improvement in visibilities is expected across the western coastal waters after daybreak, with areas of dense fog lingering across the coastal waters east of Cameron through mid afternoon. Lingering showers and thunderstorms can be expected mainly across the eastern coastal waters today, diminishing by late afternoon and evening as a weak cool front brings light northwesterly winds across the coastal waters. Winds will eventually become light and variable by Sunday as the weak surface high pressure moves over the area.

08/DML

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 70 49 70 45 / 40 10 0 0 LCH 71 53 68 50 / 40 10 0 0 LFT 75 57 69 52 / 70 20 0 0 BPT 73 52 69 50 / 10 10 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ435-436- 452-455.

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Calcasieu Pass
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:51 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:27 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:36 AM CST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:13 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:22 PM CST     1.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:07 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Calcasieu Pass, Lighthouse wharf, Louisiana, Tide feet

Mermentau River entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:50 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:26 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:25 PM CST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:12 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:00 PM CST     2.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:07 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mermentau River entrance, Louisiana, Tide feet

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Lake Charles, LA,