Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 1:56 PM   Moonset 2:04 AM

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GMZ432 Calcasieu Lake- 345 Am Cdt Fri May 17 2024
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 7 am cdt this morning - .
Today - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Patchy fog early this morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Saturday - South winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Saturday night - South winds around 5 knots, becoming west around 5 knots after midnight. Lake waters smooth. Sunday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Lake waters light chop. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Monday night - South winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Tuesday - South winds around 10 knots, increasing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters choppy. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 345 Am Cdt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis - Widespread showers and Thunderstorms will continue into Friday night as a low pressure system moves across the area - .winds and seas could be significantly stronger in the vicinity of storms. Winds will weaken by Friday afternoon with seas gradually falling through the weekend. No precip is expected this weekend through next week as light onshore flow prevails as high pressure moves east of the region.

FXUS64 KLCH 170830 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 330 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Early morning sfc analysis shows an area of low pressure over our ern zones with a trailing frontal boundary noted extending along the upper TX/swrn LA coast. Water vapor imagery shows a wswrly flow aloft over the region thanks to a filling low approaching the Red River Valley...the shortwave responsible for this evening's strong/severe storms has departed the region while a pair of more subtle disturbances lie upstream. Speaking of said convection, local 88Ds show pretty much all of it has now moved east of the Atchafalaya with just a few straggling cells noted over lower Acadiana and the adjacent coastal waters. Otherwise, observations show a mostly cloudy and fairly seasonal night ongoing.

Still expecting one more day/night of active weather across the forecast area today. The combination of the disturbances aloft with the lingering sfc boundary and good persistent moisture (forecast soundings indicate PWAT values up to 1.9 inches, especially over our sern zones) plus daytime heating should lead to another round of shower/thunderstorm development by this afternoon. Current thinking at this time is that the bulk of the development should come on the south side of the boundary (essentially the sern 1/3 of the forecast area) although forecast soundings indicate enough instability/CAPE on the backside of the front to allow for at least widely scattered showers/storms today. Activity looks to really crank up later this evening into the overnight hours as the primary shortwave works its way across the area, maximizing lift. Convective parameters from forecast soundings indicate the potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail (isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out, but don't seem as likely with fairly straight line hodographs) across our sern zones, and thus SPC is highlighting this portion of the area in a slight risk for severe through tonight (a narrow band around the edge of this area is in a marginal risk). Likewise, the highest forecasted QPFs are in these same areas and suspect WPC will maintain a slight risk of excessive rainfall in their upcoming day 1 outlook.

As far as the Flood Watch goes, have made no changes to it this morning. Elected to keep the sern zones out of it even with the higher projected rainfalls today since antecedent conditions aren't too bad despite some good downpours over the past few hours. On the flip side, elected to maintain the watch over our nwrn zones which have just been hammered with periods of heavy rains recently...and despite the lower POPs and much lower projected QPFs today, any convection which fires up over this area has the potential to drop sufficient amounts to certainly aggravate the already very wet conditions up there.

Once the bulk of the precip moves out late tonight through tomorrow morning (some lingering lighter convection looks possible over the Atchafalaya Basin into Saturday afternoon), the remainder of the short term looks dry as ridging begins building over the region.

25

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

High pressure will be along the Atlantic coast at the beginning of the work week keeping a south flow in place. A ridge aloft will stretch from South Texas into the Lower MS Valley. Hot and humid yet dry conditons are anticipated for the first half of next week as this pattern remains in place. Temperatures are expected to be above climo averages for the date.

Past mid week the upper ridge may shift east as a system pushes into the plains. A few showers and storms may return to the area as the ridge exits, but as of now the forecast keeps the bulk of the convection removed to the north closer the upper disturbances pushing from the plains into the Mid MS Valley.

05

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Some lingering shower activity will be possible near the KARA terminal through about 17/09z. Otherwise, MVFR to IFR conditions from low clouds and possible patchy fog will be the main story during the night into early Friday morning.

Still some uncertainty to where the potential thunderstorm complex will develop on Friday afternoon. Therefore, just broad brushed each terminal with a PROB30 group between 1718z/1724z.

Rua

MARINE
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Once the existing headlines on the CWF expire later this morning, don't expect to see any more added back in through the period as prevailing high pressure maintains generally light winds on the coastal waters.

25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 82 65 87 66 / 20 30 20 0 LCH 84 70 87 70 / 40 40 20 0 LFT 87 72 88 72 / 50 60 30 0 BPT 85 69 89 70 / 40 30 10 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch through late tonight for LAZ027>033-044-045-141>143- 152-241>243.

TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516- 615-616.

GM...None.

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Calcasieu Pass
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:04 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:28 AM CDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:18 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:17 PM CDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:56 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:59 PM CDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Calcasieu Pass, Lighthouse wharf, Louisiana, Tide feet

Mermentau River entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:03 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:02 AM CDT     1.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:37 AM CDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:55 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:08 PM CDT     1.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mermentau River entrance, Louisiana, Tide feet

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