Thursday, October17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Arabi, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 6:29PM Thursday October 17, 2019 12:54 PM CDT (17:54 UTC) Moonrise 8:13PMMoonset 9:23AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 1051 Am Cdt Thu Oct 17 2019
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas subsiding to less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Friday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds after midnight. Chance of showers.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1051 Am Cdt Thu Oct 17 2019
Synopsis..A potential strong area of low pressure is expected to impact the waters on Friday and Saturday. High pressure will briefly build in behind this low on Sunday before another cold front sweeps through on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arabi, LA
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location: 30.03, -90.03     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 171722
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1222 pm cdt Thu oct 17 2019

Update
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion.

Aviation
Vfr conditions prevail at all area airports. No major visibility
changes are expected. At hum, some showers are likely through the
early morning hours Friday. Some gusty winds and wind shifts are
likely at some area airports overnight through the morning hours
Friday. Msw

Prev discussion issued 420 am cdt Thu oct 17 2019
synopsis...

surface analysis showed the old cold front from central florida to
west gulf to an inverted trough low over bay of campeche. In
addition, an expansive 1020mb high was located from northeast
texas to mid mississippi valley.

Upper air analysis showed a high over cuba, a weakness over
southwest gulf of mexico, and deep low over texas big bend. In
addition, a negatively tilted main trough from lake michigan to
northeast conus. Circulation around the high and main trough has
created a confluent flow from forecast area to north florida.

Discussion...

cold air advection will be strong enough to keep high temps about
5 to 7 degrees below norms today. Surface high will slowly slide
east over ohio valley. In the gulf, a broad area of low pressure
is forecast to move northeast to the northern and northeast gulf
Friday into Saturday. Euro and GFS are in better agreement with
the low over the north central gulf by Friday morning... Euro
brings the low closer to mississippi delta than gfs. Warm waters
in the low to mid 80s and relatively light winds will give a short
window for some development today. The upper level low over texas
is expected over the south louisiana and louisiana coastal waters
by Friday morning. This is a cold core system and southwest winds
ahead of this low will cause some interaction but lifting
northeast possibly Friday into Saturday. Northeast wind flow and
astronomical high tide will yield elevated tide levels late
tonight through Saturday. The close proximity will yield gusty
winds and periods over heavy rainfall across land areas near the
coast Friday and Saturday.

The system will continue to lift northeast and dry condition will
occur across the area Saturday through Sunday. A vigorous wave
will track east across the rockies late Saturday and mississippi
valley Sunday night. This feature will drive a strong cold front
through the forecast area Monday with possibly strong storms
Monday day period. High pressure will build in the area next
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Aviation...

vfr conditions will persist at all of the terminals through the
evening hours. After midnight, low stratus should begin to develop
over a few of the terminals south of lake pontchartrain. Ceilings
of 2000 to 3000 feet could be in place by 06z at khum, kmsy, and
knew. These ceilings should continue to push further inland by
12z, and expect to see all of the terminals except for kmcb in
MVFR conditions at that time. Pg
marine...

a developing area of low pressure will produce a tighter pressure
gradient over the coastal waters today into tonight as it
approaches from the southwest. East-northeast winds of 15 to 20
knots will persist over nearly all of the waters during this
period, and seas of 3 to 5 feet can also be expected. As the low
pushes through the coastal waters tomorrow into tomorrow night,
small craft advisory conditions are expected to develop. Northeast
and north winds of 20 to 30 knots and seas of 6 to 9 feet are
expected to develop over the open gulf waters and sounds. The
tidal lakes will see winds of 15 to 20 knots and waves of 2 to 3
feet. The low will pull away from the waters on Saturday. Winds
will turn westerly and gradually decrease to 10 to 15 knots by the
late afternoon hours. Seas will also gradually improve as the
winds decrease, but seas of 5 to 7 feet are still expected to due
added swell over the eastern waters into Saturday evening. High
pressure is expected to briefly settle over waters on Sunday, and
winds and seas should decrease to 5 to 10 knots and 1 to 3 feet.

However, another low pressure system and associated cold front
will impact the waters on Monday and Tuesday. Onshore flow of 15
to 20 knots is expected on Monday, and winds will shift to an
offshore flow by Tuesday at 20 to 25 knots in the wake of the
passing cold front. Seas of 5 to 7 feet are also expected by
Tuesday. Pg
decision support...

dss code: blue.

Deployed: forecaster deployed to support city of new orleans for
building collapse.

Activation: none.

Activities: forecast support to city of new orleans for building
collapse. Monitoring possible tropical development in gulf.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 70 51 72 55 0 10 20 20
btr 70 56 73 57 0 10 20 20
asd 73 56 74 60 10 10 40 40
msy 73 65 76 66 10 10 50 40
gpt 72 57 72 61 10 10 50 50
pql 73 55 72 60 10 10 50 50

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... Tropical storm warning for laz068>070.

Coastal flood advisory until 9 am cdt Saturday for laz040-050-
058-060>064-067>070-072.

Gm... Tropical storm warning for gmz532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-
570-572-575-577.

Ms... Coastal flood advisory until 9 am cdt Saturday for msz080>082.

Gm... Tropical storm warning for gmz534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-
572-575-577.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 4 mi55 min ENE 9.9 G 11 64°F 76°F1016.2 hPa (-0.4)
CARL1 9 mi55 min 75°F
FREL1 21 mi55 min NE 8.9 G 12 65°F 1016 hPa (-0.7)
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 22 mi55 min NE 12 G 15 66°F 77°F1016.8 hPa (-0.6)
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 27 mi55 min NE 4.1 G 7 67°F 76°F1016.7 hPa (-0.6)
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 43 mi61 min NE 5.1 G 8 64°F 73°F1017.2 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA1 mi62 minE 1010.00 miFair65°F52°F63%1016.3 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA12 mi62 minE 810.00 miOvercast68°F52°F57%1017.1 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA14 mi60 minENE 1110.00 miOvercast69°F57°F68%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNEW

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N7NW10N9N15N13N13N17N17N18N17N17NE13NE15NE14NE15E14E16NE15NE17E15E13E12E10
1 day agoS10SW8SW7SW12SW13S5SW7SW7W9NE6NW9Calm----SW6S4SW6SW4W8W12NW20
G28
NE11NE4Calm
2 days agoNE10N12N12N13NE13NE13NE12E11E9E8E9E10E7E5SE5SE4SE5SE4SE3SE3S9S7SW11SW12

Tide / Current Tables for New Canal USCG station, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:00 AM CDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:22 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:46 PM CDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:26 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:12 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.911.11.21.31.31.31.21.110.90.70.60.50.30.30.20.20.20.30.40.50.60.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.