Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Arabi, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:02PM Monday December 9, 2019 8:09 PM CST (02:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:28PMMoonset 4:06AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 316 Pm Cst Mon Dec 9 2019
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the night. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming north 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog early in the morning. Chance of showers early in the morning, then showers likely in the late morning and early afternoon. Showers late in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet with occasional waves to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers until early morning, then showers likely after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the day.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 316 Pm Cst Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis..A cold front will sweep through the coastal waters Tuesday night. A low pressure system will then develop over the central gulf of mexico Wednesday night into Thursday. This low pressure system will pass over the eastern gulf waters Thursday night into Friday. High pressure will then build in on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arabi, LA
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location: 30.03, -90.03     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 092340 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 540 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 401 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019/

SHORT TERM.

A broad positively tilted trough axis and associated frontal boundary will continue to approach the area tonight into tomorrow. Increasing positive vorticity advection will result in higher omega values and lift tonight. A northwest to southeast gradient in this lift will be present through the night, and have the highest POP values across the northwest portion of the forecast area. Rain chances should also increase through the night as the frontal boundary moves into the northwestern zones by daybreak tomorrow. In advance of the front, onshore flow and dewpoints near the water temperature along the Mississippi coast and northshore of Lake Pontchartrain may allow for some patchy fog develop late tonight and early tomorrow. Not expecting much in the way of dense fog due to the increasing omega overspreading the region and off and on isolated to scattered rain showers breaking up the fog. Temperatures will be warmer than average with lows in the upper 50s and lower to middle 60s.

The best chances for rain will take place tomorrow into tomorrow night as the front pushes through and a vigorous vorticity maxima embedded within the broader longwave trough axis aloft slides across the Gulf South. Weak mid-level cyclogenesis may even occur along the frontal boundary as it moves through late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Have categorical POP values of 80 to 100 percent in the forecast across the northern zones during the day tomorrow. These values will push into the central and southern portions of the forecast area tomorrow night as the mid-level low develops. There will be a limited risk of some elevated thunderstorms developing tomorrow night into early Wednesday, but the highest thunderstorm chances should remain over the coastal waters. The low risk of thunderstorm development is due to the vast majority of the rain being post-frontal and isentropically induced. There will be limited CAPE above 850mb that could support thunderstorm activity, and have no mention over land based zones tomorrow through Wednesday morning.

Conditions should gradually improve Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as some drier air advects in from the west. Cold air advection will also continue and expect to see temperatures averaging 10 to 15 degrees colder than normal Wednesday into Wednesday night. It should also be quite breezy for areas south of the tidal lakes due to this continued cold air advection into the region. Full expect to see winds of 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts from Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

LONG TERM.

The frontal boundary will stall over the coastal waters and northern Gulf Wednesday night and remain in place into Thursday. Weak upper level ridging Thursday morning will quickly give way to a vigorous vorticity maxima ejecting out of Texas. A surface low will begin to form along the stalled boundary in a region of enhanced baroclincity across the northwest Gulf by Thursday afternoon. Warm frontal processes will overtake the area in advance this deepening low pressure system Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The warm front should push close to the coast Thursday night, and this will place the coastal waters in the warm sector. Areas north of the front should remain cooler and much more stable. Expect to see scattered showers across most of the land based zones, but scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the coastal waters. Lower Plaquemines Parish will have the highest risk of thunderstorm activity Thursday night. Temperatures will have a quite a spread with lows in the lower to middle 40s north of the warm front and the upper 50s and lower to middle 60s south of the front.

A northern stream longwave trough axis and cold front merging with the southern stream low and vorticity maxima will sweep across the area on Friday. Increased dry air advection and upper level subsidence in the wake of this trough will lead to decreasing rain chances and clearing skies throughout the afternoon and evening hours on Friday. Cold air advection will be somewhat limited with this trough axis as the airmass advecting in will be more Pacific based in nature. As a result, a return to more normal temperatures is expected for Saturday and Sunday. The deep pool of drier air in place will also result in mostly clear skies and dry weather on both Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION.

UPDATED 2340Z.

For this evening and early tonight, expect mostly MVFR conditions to prevail with lower CIGs ranging from around 015 to 030 with a steady lowering in cloud bases leading to IFR conditions near or before midnight tonight. Widespread dense fog will likely develop across marine and near coastal sites later this evening, with inland fog developing later and lasting through tomorrow morning. All site TAF locations have the potential to see patchy areas of fog through daybreak, where reductions in VIS and very low cloud bases are expected.

Additionally, radar continues to show spotty shower activity generally west of I-59. In any one shower, temporary reductions in VIS and lower CIGs may lead to lower flight categories at times. Showers become more isolated after midnight, but then quickly increase in coverage to the northwest by daybreak, with a cold front and associated rain along the boundary sweeping across the area. Timing for now looks to be around 7-9AM for MCB to BTR, late morning/early afternoon for HUM/MSY/ASD and mid afternoon across the MS coast. Expect a wind shift and associated rain at these times with generally prevailing MVFR, but periods of lower flight categories likely. KLG

MARINE.

The main concerns through the weekend will be a frontal boundary pushing through the waters tomorrow night and a low pressure system passing through the waters Thursday night. Strong offshore winds are expected to develop tomorrow night behind the front and remain in place through Wednesday night. Winds of 20 to 30 knots will result in small craft advisory flags being issued from Tuesday night through Thursday morning. Waves of 3 to 6 feet in the lakes and sounds and 6 to 10 feet in the open Gulf waters can also be expected during this period. The low pressure system should pass through the waters Thursday night into Friday morning. Winds will remain elevated to the north and west of the low where the pressure gradient is expected to be greatest, and expect to see continued small craft advisory conditions across the sounds and open Gulf waters through Friday morning. High pressure will settle in for Friday night and Saturday with west-northwest winds of around 10 knots forecast.

DECISION SUPPORT.

DSS code: Green. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Forecast Support for the City of New Orleans and Crane Fest 2019. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or excessive rain. Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 58 64 40 55 / 70 90 100 20 BTR 59 64 41 55 / 60 90 100 30 ASD 63 71 41 56 / 30 80 100 40 MSY 66 71 46 55 / 30 80 100 40 GPT 64 69 43 55 / 20 70 90 50 PQL 64 72 42 57 / 20 60 80 50

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CARL1 9 mi52 min 51°F
FREL1 21 mi52 min S 5.1 G 8.9 73°F 1013.2 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 22 mi58 min S 6 G 7 69°F 65°F1015 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA1 mi77 minS 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F68°F84%1013.7 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA12 mi77 minS 69.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F69°F87%1014.4 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA14 mi75 minS 65.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F70°F96%1014.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNEW

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN8NE6E7E5CalmCalmN3N4NE3N4N5NE7NE7NE5N5N5N7N8N5NE4N4SE4CalmSE4
2 days agoNE8N12NE9NE9N10N9N8N10N7N10N7N9N8NE11NE9NE9N7N7N8N7N9N12N13NE12

Tide / Current Tables for New Canal USCG station, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:53 AM CST     0.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:06 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:06 PM CST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:27 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:00 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.80.80.70.60.40.30.20.10-0-0.1-0-00.10.10.20.30.40.50.60.80.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.