Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Arabi, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 7:35PM Thursday August 22, 2019 9:26 PM CDT (02:26 UTC) Moonrise 10:54PMMoonset 11:39AM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 342 Pm Cdt Thu Aug 22 2019
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the night.
Saturday..Northeast winds near 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening. Chance of showers through the night.
Sunday..Southwest winds near 5 knots becoming west late in the morning, then becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 342 Pm Cdt Thu Aug 22 2019
Synopsis..Weak extension of bermuda high pressure area across the northeast gulf of mexico will persist through the weekend. An unsettled pattern will provide periods of Thunderstorms over the coastal waters through Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arabi, LA
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location: 30.03, -90.03     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 222041
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
341 pm cdt Thu aug 22 2019

Short term
Radar coverage thusfar has been consirably less than at this time
the past few days due to lack of focusing mechanisms outside of
the typical lake sea breeze boundaries. Meanwhile, the satellite
imagery shows increasing bulk loading of tropical moisture in the
west-central gulf of mexico tapping into itcz south of the
yucatan. This will be steadily advancing northward and bring
precipitable values upward into the 2.3-2.5 inch range Friday
from the current sub-2.0 inch levels. Thes conditions linger
through the weekend with convective temperatures expected to
lower into the mid 80s so marine layer advection will likely be
enough to spark nocturnal showers in and near the coastal
locations that will efficiently penetrate inland with early onset
gulf breeze convergence. What typically happens in these regimes
is a short period of thunderstorms with lengthy duration anvil
and high based lighter rain. Rain rates at peak should be close to
2 inches per hour for about 30-45 minute duration each of the
next 2-3 days. Accumulations should average 1-2 inches closer to
the louisiana coast with spotty amounts near 4 inches Friday. The
marginal risk for excessive rainfall appears plausible, though
often if the heavy rain axis is established along or just off the
coast, this could hinder deeper moisture feed farther inland,
hence the marginal risk. Temperatures should be held to slightly
below normal during the daytime due to rain and extensive cloud
cover though a brief sprint to MAX temps in the late morning hours
before convection gets going in earnest.

Long term
Upper pattern transitions to some amplification of higher latitude
trough to place the region into a northwest flow regime for much
of next week. It appears some semblance of a front, or at least,
some continental influenced airmass to bring some mid level drying
to bring a return to near normal rain chances and a trend to
slightly above normal temperatures as surface high pressure builds
from the west and northwest by middle of next week. This pattern
also portend favorability of MCS activity rolling out of the
central plains into the lower mississippi valley. Combined with
compressional and sensible heating, could evolve into better pulse
severe threat later in the week. Meanwhile, in the gulf, the
models are hinting at a tropical wave to traverse the central gulf
heading into next week. This is both spatially and temporally
favorable teleconnection for some developments, but may be
hampered by what should be considerably westerly shear across the
north gulf to limit extent of any feature's developments until
reaching the westernmost gulf waters over the labor day weekend.

Plenty of time to watch model trends.

Aviation
GeneralVFR conditions at all terminals outside of limited
convection this evening. Overnight hours should remain essentially
vfr though marine layer advection may cause ceilings to bounce
MVFR-vfr around sct-bkn025 at times generally between 08-13z,
particularly at khum, kgpt and possibly khdc and kasd.

Marine
No significant issues with prevailing light onshore winds and low
seas outside of convection, which should blossom into better
coverage heading into Friday morning. The air mass will become
increasingly more conducive for tropical funnel and waterspout
formation in the near shore waters, near shore marshes and tidal
lakes bays Friday morning through at least Sunday.

Decision support
Dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: marginal risk excessive rainfall Friday Saturday.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 72 88 72 88 10 70 10 80
btr 75 87 74 89 20 90 30 80
asd 74 89 73 90 30 80 30 80
msy 77 88 77 89 40 90 50 80
gpt 75 87 75 88 50 70 40 70
pql 74 89 73 90 30 50 20 60

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

24 rr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 4 mi56 min SSW 5.1 G 7 80°F 88°F1014.5 hPa
CARL1 9 mi56 min 88°F
FREL1 21 mi56 min S 8 G 9.9 78°F 1014 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 22 mi56 min S 8.9 G 15 81°F 89°F1015.6 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 27 mi56 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 78°F 87°F1015.4 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 43 mi56 min S 7 G 11 85°F 85°F1015.6 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA1 mi33 minS 910.00 miLight Rain80°F75°F85%1014.4 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA12 mi33 minSE 710.00 miLight Rain80°F73°F82%1015.1 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA14 mi31 minSSE 76.00 miLight Rain80°F79°F97%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNEW

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE3SE3S3S4SE4SE4SE5SE4CalmCalmNE43NE6NE10NE11SE7E6E9SE9SW5S10S14S9
1 day agoS6SW5S7S7S4S5S5S6S5S5--SW7W6S6CalmCalmS3SE5SE5CalmCalmNE3SE5SE7
2 days agoS6S7S8SW7S6S4SW4SW6S6NE9E7N5NE6NE7NE7NE10N7N6SW7SW5SW5SW10SW9SW7

Tide / Current Tables for New Canal USCG station, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:31 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:51 AM CDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:38 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:33 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:21 PM CDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:53 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.80.80.80.90.9111110.90.90.80.70.60.60.50.50.50.50.50.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.