Thursday, April2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Arabi, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:21PM Thursday April 2, 2020 12:57 AM CDT (05:57 UTC) Moonrise 12:30PMMoonset 1:57AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 1006 Pm Cdt Wed Apr 1 2020
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..East winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1006 Pm Cdt Wed Apr 1 2020
Synopsis..High pressure will remain over the waters through Thursday, then slide east Friday. Weak frontal boundary settles into the coastal waters Saturday then lifts north Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arabi, LA
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location: 30.03, -90.03     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 012328 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 628 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

AVIATION. VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the forecast period. Clouds will begin to move in from the west just after 18z but impacts, if any, should be limited to western terminals like KBTR. -BL

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020/

SHORT TERM . Tonight and tomorrow will see continued dry weather as a deep layer ridge axis resides over the area. There should be some increase in high level cloud cover during the day tomorrow as a weak vorticity maxima approaches from the west, but a deep layer of dry air will persist in the low and mid-levels of the atmosphere. Temperatures will be near average with lows ranging from the upper 40s to the upper 50s and highs in the middle to upper 70s.

The vorticity max will slide through the region tomorrow night,and there should be just enough moisture build down across the parishes along the Atchafalaya Basin to produce a few light rain showers. Another weak upper level disturbance should move into southwest Louisiana by Friday, and a pool of sufficient moisture will persist for the parishes along the Atchafalaya to keep a risk of a few showers in place. The remainder of the forecast area should remain dry with some high to mid-level cloud cover through Friday evening as a wedge of drier air remains in place below 700mb. Temperatures will warm slightly with highs rising into the upper 70s and lower 80s by Friday afternoon.

LONG TERM . The vort max over Southwest Louisiana and eastern Texas will push through the Gulf South Saturday into Saturday night. A pool of much deeper moisture will advect into the area, and precipitable water values will rise from around 1.10 inches to 1.70 inches from Friday night through Saturday afternoon. Instability will remain limited through Saturday afternoon due to weak mid-level lapse rates, and only have scattered light rain showers in the forecast. Temperatures will remain near average on Saturday. By Saturday night, model soundings indicate that a steepening of lapse rates could occur over the coastal waters and immediate Louisiana coast, and have included a mention of scattered thunderstorms in the forecast for these areas.

All of the model guidance indicates that the region will see a weak shortwave ridge axis slide through on Sunday. Even with this weak ridging in place, there will still be some lingering low level moisture and some weak instability in place on Sunday. As a result, some isolated to widely scattered showers could develop during the day, and have included a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Temperatures should be a bit warmer due to the weak ridging aloft and slightly warmer 925mb temperatures, and this will allow highs to climb into the lower 80s in most locations.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF indicate that the ridge will continue to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Before this ridge becomes truly dominant over the forecast area, another fast moving shortwave perturbation will slide through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Model sounding indicate that favorable environment will be in place to support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. CAPE values should be around 1500 J/KG, and there will be ample moisture to work with as precipitable water values linger near 1.7 inches. These parameters are sufficient to support convective development with the greatest amount of coverage occurring during peak heating in the afternoon hours. Overall, a very Summer like day is expected with dewpoints in the 70s and highs in the middle 80s.

The ridge will deepen and expand across the forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday, and an increased capping inversion should develop in response. Where the cap is weakest across the northern third of the CWA on Tuesday, some isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop. However, by Wednesday the cap should be strong enough that only dry conditions are expected across the area. Temperatures will continue to warm with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the 70s forecast.

AVIATION . VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday. 22/TD

MARINE . High pressure over the waters tonight will keep winds light and variable and seas fairly calm. The high will shift to the east tomorrow, and a prevailing southeast wind of 10 to 15 knots is expected to take hold. These conditions should then persist through the weekend and into early next week. Seas will generally range from 1 to 3 feet in the lakes and sounds to 2 to 4 feet in the open Gulf waters through early next week.

DECISION SUPPORT .

DSS code: Blue. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Forecast support for COVID-19 outdoor test sites. River Flood Warnings

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 50 75 55 78 / 0 10 10 10 BTR 50 77 58 81 / 0 10 20 10 ASD 49 78 55 80 / 0 0 10 10 MSY 57 78 63 80 / 0 0 10 10 GPT 54 74 56 77 / 0 0 10 10 PQL 47 77 51 79 / 0 0 10 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 4 mi58 min SSW 5.1 G 6 63°F 75°F1016 hPa (+0.0)
CARL1 9 mi58 min 60°F
FREL1 21 mi58 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 58°F 1015.5 hPa (+0.0)
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 22 mi58 min 63°F 75°F1016.9 hPa (+0.0)
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 27 mi64 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 61°F 76°F1017 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 43 mi64 min WNW 1 G 1.9 64°F 71°F1016.9 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA12 mi65 minSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds59°F51°F75%1017.1 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA14 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miFair54°F53°F97%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNEW

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------W6W6W6W7SW6SW5
1 day ago----------------------------------NW19
G27
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----
2 days ago--------------------E8NE11E9E14
G19
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G16
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Tide / Current Tables for New Canal USCG station, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:56 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:00 AM CDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:30 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:33 PM CDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.90.70.60.40.20-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.10.10.20.40.60.70.911.11.11.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.