Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Arabi, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:06PM Monday July 6, 2020 3:16 PM CDT (20:16 UTC) Moonrise 8:40PMMoonset 6:20AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 1055 Am Cdt Mon Jul 6 2020
Rest of today..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1055 Am Cdt Mon Jul 6 2020
Synopsis..A trough of low pressure will hold across the northern gulf region and remain in place through at least Tuesday. High pressure will build from the gulf northward towards the coast later in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arabi, LA
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location: 30.03, -90.03     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 061735 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1235 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 412 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020/

Starting off the discussion, yesterday's PW measured by our upper air sounding was 2 15". BOTH flights. Needless to say, it was a wet day. No pattern change today and model soundings actually show a slightly bump in PW's, so expecting a near repeat. In fact, the latest HRRR run shows storms developing south and west of I-10 corridor in the morning and progressing northeast during the afternoon. That's basically what happened yesterday. Looking at the radar qpf coverage before it was reset a few hours ago, a subjective 90% of the area saw measurable precip. Thus, will be sending out the forecast today with around 90% POPs.

Main concern for today is heavy rain and flash flooding. Scrolling through radar imagery from yesterday, some very impressively high numbers were seen. Instaneous rainfall rates of over 8" per hour occurred a few times. That's 1 inch of rain in 7-8 minutes. While it's quite rare for a rate that high could be maintained for very long, multiple places did see 4" over an entire hour yesterday. In addition, it's not too unlikely that a pattern like this can produce upwards of 5 to 6 inches over an hour. Location is everything though and where the training of these intense storms occur will determine if flash flooding develops.

The upper level pattern doesn't appear to change going into Tuesday. CWA continues to sit in a region of weakness between 2 ridges with ample moisture in place. Therefore, the same POPs and threats can be expected to continue.

The pattern will finally starting to gradually change Wednesday onward. The ridge centered near the 4 Corners region of the country will begin to deepen and expand eastward. This will increase subsidence and bring in drier air into the column. Rain chances will slowly decrease as this transition takes place with POPs possibly as low as 20 to 30 percent on Friday. Of course, lower POPs with increasing 500mb heights means high temps will likely begin to soar. Could be looking at heat advisories returning this weekend.

MEFFER

AVIATION.

UPDATED 1735Z.

Recent radar trends early this afternoon continues to show a disorganized mass of heavy rain and thunderstorms slowly advancing north to now above the I-10 corridor, with lingering anvil canopy light rain showers to the south across KBTR, KHUM, KMSY and KNEW. This activity should diminish some, but light drizzle may persist across these areas. Out ahead of the storms north to southern Mississippi (KMCB) will encounter some heavy rain showers/storms before 19Z, but again will transition to light rain thereafter.

Short-range models hint at the potential for more convection to develop later this evening, and have introduced this potential in area TAF sites, as we remain in such a moist environment. These should come to an end well before midnight, with another round by Tuesday morning along with the same threats persisting. KLG

MARINE.

A general weakness associated with a sfc trough near the coast and a sfc high over the SE gulf will keep winds mainly out of a westerly direction through much of the week. Some flux to an onshore flow may be produced temporarily through the week and Nocturnal sh/ts will continue each night through atleast mid week. Higher winds and seas will be found in and around sh/ts. Relatively drier conditions look to be on the horizon for Thu and Fri. The exception could be waters east of the Miss River. But sh/ts look to be back again by the weekend for most waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 73 86 74 88 / 50 90 20 70 BTR 73 85 75 89 / 40 90 10 60 ASD 73 88 73 89 / 40 80 10 60 MSY 76 88 76 89 / 30 90 10 60 GPT 75 87 76 88 / 50 80 20 50 PQL 73 89 74 90 / 50 80 20 60

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for LAZ034>037-039-040- 046>050-056>072.

GM . None. MS . Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MSZ068>071-077- 080>082.

GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 4 mi47 min SSW 5.1 G 8 78°F 85°F1014.1 hPa
CARL1 9 mi47 min 84°F
FREL1 21 mi47 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 76°F 1013.9 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 22 mi47 min WSW 11 G 13 79°F 86°F1015 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 27 mi47 min SW 5.1 G 8 77°F 79°F1015 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 43 mi47 min W 12 G 17 87°F 85°F1014.4 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA1 mi24 minWSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F73°F79%1014.4 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA12 mi24 minSW 310.00 miOvercast79°F75°F90%1015.3 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA14 mi82 minSSW 66.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist78°F78°F100%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNEW

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW20W10W11W9W10W12NW10SW7SW8W7W8W9W8SW8SW6SW4SW3SW4SW12SW12W14SW11SW10SW9
1 day agoNW9NW13N15N19N6N8NE8NE7N5E4SE4S3CalmW4CalmS4NE5NE6NE4N7N7N6SW7W13
2 days agoW15W13W11NW13NW12NW16NW13NW16NW13NW10NW11N11NW8NW11W8W11W12NW8NW5W5W7W7W7NW10

Tide / Current Tables for New Canal USCG station, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:57 AM CDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:04 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:20 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:22 PM CDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:04 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:39 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.10.10.30.50.70.91.11.31.51.51.51.51.31.20.90.70.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.