Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Callahan, FL

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Main Highlights Through Tonight:

- Isolated T-storm possible late today inland areas.

- Areas of dense fog possible.

Above normal temperatures (near record highs) today under the affects of a large ridge of high pressure located due east of the area. Mean low level flow through about 5 kft is southeast about 5-10 kt. PWATs are generally in the 1 to 1.2 inch range with the higher values over inland northeast FL area. Sct to broken cumulus over the area with light winds inland and breezier easterly winds developing along the coast as the east coast sea breeze is underway now. Not a whole lot of change to the forecast low chance (20-30 percent) of showers and isolated t-storms toward the I-75 corridor late this afternoon and evening. The isolated to scattered convection expected to maybe not develop until after 4 pm, and then dissipate 8-10 pm and gone by midnight. Latest analysis showed MLCAPE of about 1150 J/kg over Marion county but we will need to wait for enough low level convergence to overcome some subsidence around 700 mb for some convection.

Meanwhile, mild overnight lows again with chances of stratus and fog again, developing first along the coast from Duval county northward, but especially Nassau, Camden, and Glynn counties by midnight. Can't rule out the need for a dense fog advisory but confidence is low on timing and extent of any advisory at this time.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Main Highlights Fri-Sat:

- Nightly fog and stretches of sea fog lasting through the morning - Warming Trend, approaching records each day

Southeasterly flow will promote highs inland reaching near record breaking values Friday and Saturday, while the coast remains cooler due to the onshore surface breeze. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s inland, and in the 70s on the Atlantic coast.

The onshore steering flow will aid an increase of moisture across the area, as well as an Atlantic sea breeze developing in the afternoons due to the sharp temperature difference between inland and marine locations. Rain chances will be at about 20-30% area-wide Friday afternoon, with a low chance of thunder. Saturday, shower chances will be more confined to north central Florida, again with a low chance of thunder.

Mild low temperatures and a light onshore breeze overnight will allow for nightly sea fog development to push onshore and move inland.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Main Weather Highlights Sun-Thur:

- Near record high temperatures for inland areas - Nightly Fog Potential Continues - Increasing chance for thunderstorms late next week

Above average temperatures continue through Wednesday, with inland locations seeing near record high temps in the mid to upper 80s.
Winds will generally be more southerly during this period, with afternoon southeasterly winds allowing a sea breeze to push inland.
Isolated thunder chances return on Sunday almost areawide in the afternoon and evening. Medium range guidance is honing in on the next upper trough and attendant cold front reaching the region Thursday bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms.

The potential for nightly bouts of radiative fog continues during this period with little change in the boundary layer moisture.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Except for a brief MVFR cig around 18z, VFR is favored through the afternoon and early evening. The concern with the forecast after 00z is the formation and potential inland movement stratus and sea fog.
Initial development of fog and/or stratus forecast to be at SSI and CRG from about 23z-04z, then JAX and VQQ from 04z to 06z, then at SGJ and GNV from 05z to 08z. Highest probability of IFR and LIFR exists for terminals in the coastal counties, trending down to around 50% probability at GNV. Cigs and vsby should improve between 13z-15z Friday with VFR cigs likely thereafter. Sfc winds east-southeast about 7-12 kt. Lighter southeast winds or occasional calm overnight, with southeast winds of 5-10 kt after 14z Friday.

MARINE

Dense sea fog at times will lead to difficult navigation conditions across the coastal waters through the rest of the week, especially during overnight periods. There will be periods over the next few days where fog lifts to stratus, but prevailing visibilities will generally be low, especially within about 20 to 30nm from the coast.
Sea fog is likely to continue through the weekend as warm, moist air is pushed across the water by southeast and south winds. Otherwise, surface high pressure will remain fairly stationary, near Bermuda, through early next week.

Rip Currents: Breezy easterly winds near 10 kt, and swells of about 10 seconds from about 070-080 degrees creating moderate to high risk of rip currents. Surf to about 3-4 ft anticipated. A similar trend is likely to continue through Friday as well. An elevated rip current risk will continue through the weekend and into early next week at area beaches as persistent southeasterly winds prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

...LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS NORTH OF ST
AUGUSTINE

...HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT INLAND LOCATIONS...

Isolated to widely scattered mainly late afternoon and early evening showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible at inland locations through the weekend. Otherwise, easterly surface and transport winds will become breezy this afternoon and again on Friday afternoon at coastal locations as the Atlantic sea breeze moves inland, with lowering mixing heights yielding marginally low daytime dispersion values for locations north of St. Augustine. Light southeast to southerly transport winds elsewhere will result in generally fair dispersion values this afternoon. Southeasterly surface and transport winds will become breezy on Friday afternoon across northeast and north central Florida, resulting in good daytime dispersion values at inland locations. Lighter southerly transport winds across interior southeast Georgia will create generally fair daytime dispersion values.

Southeast to southerly surface and transport winds will prevail this weekend, with increasing mixing heights creating good daytime dispersion values at inland locations on Saturday afternoon, followed by potentially high values at inland locations on Sunday afternoon. Generally poor dispersion values are forecast this weekend at coastal locations as the sea breeze pushes inland each afternoon.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of locally dense fog are expected across much of our region each night through the upcoming weekend and into next week. Widespread dense sea fog could impact coastal locations and the Interstate 95 corridor, especially for areas north of St. Augustine each night and morning. Fog may combine with smoke from existing or new wildfires to create localized superfog during the predawn and early morning hours each day, which will be extremely hazardous to vehicular traffic.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

March 5: KGNV: 87/1997

March 6: KGNV: 87/2023 KAMG: 86/1961

March 7: KGNV: 88/2023 KAMG: 86/1956

March 8: KJAX: 88/1945 KGNV: 88/1921 KAMG: 86/1974 KCRG: 86/1998

March 9: KJAX: 88/2024 KGNV: 89/1907 KAMG: 88/1974

March 10: KGNV: 90/1974 KAMG: 88/1974 KCRG: 86/2019

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 7: KGNV: 66/1935

March 8: KGNV: 65/1973

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 86 61 85 / 10 20 10 10 SSI 61 72 60 74 / 10 10 10 10 JAX 61 83 61 83 / 10 20 0 10 SGJ 62 80 62 79 / 10 20 10 20 GNV 62 87 62 87 / 20 30 10 20 OCF 63 87 63 87 / 30 30 10 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.