Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Callahan, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:27PM Friday December 13, 2019 7:34 AM EST (12:34 UTC) Moonrise 7:00PMMoonset 8:31AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Expires:201912131530;;274906 Fzus52 Kjax 130721 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 221 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-131530- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 221 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Today..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south this afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers.
Saturday night..West northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..North northwest winds around 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters smooth.
Sunday night and Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 221 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis.. Warm front will lift north of the waters today followed by a low pressure system crossing the waters tonight, then a cold frontal passage early Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall and embedded strong Thunderstorms possible through early Saturday morning. Weak high pressure will build into the region Sunday and Monday. The next cold frontal passage is expected late on Tuesday.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 12, 2019 at 1200 utc... 64 nautical miles east northeast of flagler beach. 64 nautical miles east northeast of saint augustine beach. 71 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 99 nautical miles east of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Callahan, FL
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location: 30.56, -81.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 131019 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 519 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

AVIATION. [Through 12Z Saturday]

Widespread LIFR/IFR conds ongoing at all TAF sites as Warm Front lifts north and provides rainfall, drizzle and fog. Improving trends at the NE FL TAF sites in the 12-15z time frame as rainfall becomes more spotty and likely can inlcude VCSH. IFR conds will continue at SSI through the day as the warm front stalls near the site. MVFR CIGS are expected at NE FL TAF sites through the afternoon and latest model trends are showing most storms holding off until tonight in the 06-12z time frame and will show some timing for these in the next TAF package as lower stratus lingers in the warm sector through the night-time hours.

PREV DISCUSSION [347 AM EST].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Today . Warm front currently lifting northward through NE FL early this morning will be the focus of rainfall with isolated embedded storms possible as it moves into SE GA later this morning, then current shortwave energy over the NE GOMEX will track from the SW across this feature and push some fashion of broken squall line from west to east across SE GA/NE FL during the afternoon hours. Trying to nail down any specific area with strong/severe threat this afternoon will be tough and depends on how far warm front makes it northward and allows for warm sector destabilization. Max temps will range widely from the lower/middle 60s across SE GA closer to frontal boundary to lower/middle 70s across NE FL in the warm sector. Overall 12 hour rainfall chances today easily close to 80-100% for all areas, but areas in the warm sector across NE FL may see longer periods without rainfall as warm front lifts into SE GA. Locally heavy rainfall today appears more on track for SE GA as warm front focuses on this area as shortwave energy aloft pushes into the region.

Tonight . Digging mid/upper level trough into the SE US will acquire a negative tilt as significant piece of energy digs into the base of the trof later tonight. This will allow for a developing low pressure center on the frontal boundary over the FL panhandle that will track E-NE across south GA through the overnight hours and is rather intense for mid-December and higher res models such as the Downscaled NAM to 2.5 km is showing a significant squall line tracking across SE GA and into NE FL from the 06z-12z time frame (overnight hours) and is likely some of reason why SPC has introduced a Slight Risk of Severe Storms for much of the region as the warm sector from most of SE GA and into NE FL will allow for surface based storms and potential strong to severe wind gusts as this feature pushes through along with the risk for isolated tornadoes. The GFS/ECMWF are not quite as robust as the NAM with this feature on the latest model runs and will need to be monitored for better agreement. Overall expect locally heavy rainfall to accompany this squall line as well and still expect rainfall totals of 1-3 inches across SE GA and 0.50 to 1.50 inches across NE FL. Temps will generally remain steady in the 50s across SE GA and 60s across NE FL for most of the night ahead of the squall line with a slight decrease to around 50 degrees for SE GA behind the squall line towards morning.

SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday].

Some rain showers may linger Saturday morning as a cold front exits the region. Dry conditions prevail as high pressure settles over the region for the weekend. Temperatures begin to warm as developing southerly flow starts advecting warmer air to the area late Sunday. Over the weekend, highs will generally range from the upper 60s across southeast Georgia to the low 70s across northeast Florida.

LONG TERM [Monday Through Thursday].

The warming trend continues for the beginning of the week with high pressure overhead. Temperatures rise well above climo with highs peaking in the mid to upper 70s with the potential for our southern counties to reach 80. On Tuesday, the next round of rain moves through ahead of a cold front. Behind the cold front, a colder, drier air mass moves into the area. Temperatures drop below climo til the end of the work week. Overnight lows on Wednesday and Thursday will range from the 30s inland to the 40s along the coast.

MARINE.

Warm front lifting through the waters this morning will shift winds from the current East 10-20 knots to South 10-15 knots by the afternoon hours. Lingering seas of 5-7 ft this morning will keep Small Craft Advisory headlines until 10am for the nearshore waters, while the offshore waters will continue headlines into Saturday as South to Southwest winds increase to 20 knots tonight ahead of approaching frontal boundary, then west 20-25 knots on Saturday behind the frontal passage along with seas 6-9 ft. Weak high pressure building into the region this weekend will allow for headlines to be dropped as winds fall to 10-15 knots and seas 3-5 ft by Sunday. Winds and seas slowly increase early next week ahead of next frontal passage to 15-20 knots and 4-6 ft by the Tuesday time frame.

Rip Currents/Surf: Lingering high surf of 5-7 ft and high risk of rip currents today that will slowly fade to Moderate on Saturday as the flow becomes offshore.

HYDROLOGY.

With the onshore pressure gradient relaxing this morning, the high tide cycle along the Atlc Coast should peak very close to Action stage or slightly below with values of 1.0 to 1.5 ft MHHW (above ground level) at the coast and 0.5-1.0 ft MHHW (above ground level) in the St Johns River Basin and these values will likely not need the issuance of a Coastal Flood Statement at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 61 50 65 42 67 / 100 100 10 0 0 SSI 67 57 67 46 66 / 100 90 20 0 0 JAX 73 58 71 46 70 / 100 90 20 0 0 SGJ 76 61 72 48 69 / 80 80 30 0 0 GNV 73 59 71 46 71 / 70 90 30 0 0 OCF 76 61 73 46 72 / 50 100 30 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Duval- Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA . High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Camden- Coastal Glynn.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NFDF1 13 mi65 min NNE 4.1 G 7 61°F 1017.8 hPa
DMSF1 15 mi65 min 64°F
BLIF1 16 mi65 min ESE 5.1 G 6 67°F 1017.8 hPa67°F
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 17 mi65 min Calm G 5.1 66°F 61°F1017.9 hPa
LTJF1 20 mi65 min 68°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 20 mi65 min E 8.9 G 15 67°F 63°F1016.8 hPa
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 26 mi35 min 62°F6 ft
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 55 mi35 min S 12 G 14 69°F 65°F1015.9 hPa (-2.1)

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville International Airport, FL5 mi99 minNNE 62.00 miRain Fog/Mist63°F60°F90%1016.5 hPa
Fernandina Beach Municipal Airport, FL15 mi40 minE 82.50 miRain Fog/Mist63°F0°F%1016.6 hPa
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL20 mi42 minESE 86.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist68°F66°F96%1016.2 hPa
Mayport Naval Station - Adm David L. McDonald Field, FL20 mi43 minE 14 G 203.00 miRain Fog/Mist67°F66°F97%1016.3 hPa
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL23 mi42 minNNE 34.00 miFog/Mist65°F63°F93%1016 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJAX

Wind History from JAX (wind in knots)
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N13NE4NE6NE5N3N4N3N5N6NE6Calm
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2 days agoS3S5S9SW8S10S14S11S12SW10SW7SW4SW4S4SW4S5SW6SW4SW5W7SW5CalmNW9NW13NW9

Tide / Current Tables for Boggy Creek, 2 mi. above entrance, Florida
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Boggy Creek
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Fri -- 12:32 AM EST     3.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:38 AM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:31 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:57 PM EST     3.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:20 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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332.61.91.10.3-0.2-0.20.31.22.12.93.43.63.42.921.20.40.10.20.71.52.2

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current
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St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:58 AM EST     -2.06 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:45 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:42 AM EST     2.61 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:29 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:56 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:32 PM EST     -2.27 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:49 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:09 PM EST     1.65 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:01 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.7-2.1-1.8-1.3-0.70.31.42.42.621.1-0.1-1.4-2.2-2.2-1.9-1.4-0.80.21.11.61.40.80

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.