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FXUS64 KFWD 090108 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 708 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Saturday Night/

A slightly cooler night is in store for much of North and Central Texas thanks to our next cold front that is expected to push through the region early tomorrow morning. Overnight lows will fall into the low 40s across our northwestern zones, contrasting against the low 60s that will be experienced across our southeast.
Southerly winds will continue through the night, before diminishing and becoming northerly as the frontal boundary clears through the area.

Opted to leave the mention of fog out of the forecast due to the front pushing through, though there could be a brief window where isolated patches develop. If that happens, it will be short-lived due to our winds taking on a northerly component.

Another stratus intrusion has a medium chance of moving into the region, though this one will be shifted off more to the east.
There is a low chance that this develops westward over portions of the Metroplex through the morning hours behind the front. There is also a low possibility for showers and thunderstorms right along our eastern border through tomorrow afternoon, but most of this precipitation will be well outside of our area. Much cooler conditions will put the warmth we had today into distant memory with afternoon highs on Saturday in the upper 50s to low 70s, followed by chilly overnight lows in the 20s and 30s across North and Central Texas.

Reeves

LONG TERM
/Issued 300 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023/ /Saturday Night Onward/

Strong cold air advection will persist into Saturday evening before winds eventually abate overnight into Sunday morning, as the axis of the post frontal surface ridge eases in from the northwest. It will definitely feel like winter by that time, as temperatures at daybreak will range from the upper 20s in the northwest to upper 30s southeast. Despite the dramatic cool-down, Sunday should actually end up being a nice day, particularly in the afternoon as temperatures climb into the 50s under sunny skies and light winds.

Light return flow will begin Sunday evening as the ridge axis heads for Southeast Texas. Even though winds will be out of the south, Sunday night should still be a good radiative cooling set- up with clear skies, light winds, and exceptionally dry air (dewpoints in the teens). Monday morning lows should be near or below freezing for a good portion of the region, the exception being the urban heat islands and far west counties.

A warm-up will take place during the first part of next week as warm advection strengthens and zonal flow develops aloft, with Monday and Tuesday temperatures being near to slightly above normal. Moisture will be on the increase by midweek as an upper low deepens over the Four Corners on Wednesday and begins to advance eastward on Thursday. An increase in mid level clouds will keep a lid on Wednesday temperatures with highs mainly in the mid and upper 50s.

Rain chances will begin on Thursday for areas west of I-35 as the upper low encroaches on the Texas Panhandle. Thunderstorms will be few and far between due to a lack of instability, so precipitation will be primarily in the form of scattered light to moderate rain showers. These showers will spread east across the rest of North and Central Texas on Friday as the low transitions into an open shortwave while crossing through the Southern Plains.
Rainfall totals will be unimpressive, due at least in part to the dry airmass initially in place. The primary result will be a chilly and damp end to next week.

Dry and seasonable weather will return by next weekend as the system heads for the Mississippi Valley and shortwave ridge enters in its wake.

30

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00z TAFs/

Concerns...Potential for MVFR cigs, NW winds after FROPA.

VFR conditions prevail across all TAF sites this evening, but conditions will worsen as we move into the early morning hours Saturday. A frontal boundary is expected to push through the D10 around 08-09z, causing a wind shift to the northwest with speeds around 5 to 8 knots.

Ahead of this boundary, there is a low chance for the development of fog but confidence in this happening is rather low at this time. Once the front passes through, another stratus intrusion is expected across eastern portions of the D10, which could lead to MVFR ceilings late tonight into Saturday morning. Wind speeds out of the northwest will increase to around 15 to 20 knots with gusts upwards of 30 knots by Saturday afternoon.

Reeves


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 50 64 36 55 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 54 67 38 55 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 51 63 34 51 31 / 20 10 0 0 0 Denton 43 62 30 55 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 47 63 32 54 30 / 0 5 0 0 0 Dallas 50 65 37 54 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 53 64 34 53 30 / 5 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 59 68 38 55 33 / 0 5 0 0 0 Temple 54 70 36 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 42 62 31 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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