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FXUS64 KJAN 112113 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 313 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

New DISCUSSION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 246 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Latest afternoon obs show the core of a 1025mb surface high pressure system is centered directly over the forecast area today. As such, clear skies and deep mixing have yielded temps in the mid to upper 50s and dew points mixing as low as 15-20 degrees. This is resulting in RH values in the 20-30% range, but fuel and soil moisture levels are thankfully improved to limit fire weather concerns in most locations following recent heavy rain in the region. Min temps this morning were widespread mid to upper 20s, and with high pressure still the main influence tonight, temps overnight should range again from mid 20s to lower 30s. A few more high clouds may be in the region tomorrow, but the daytime should be comparable to today's seasonably warm and dry conditions. /NF/

Tuesday Night Through The Weekend:

The influence of a departing upper trough and the remnant surface high will continue to dominate the forecast through mid week.
Temperatures will generally be near or just below climate normals with frosty mornings likely particularly in the typically cooler spots. Afternoons will be pleasant with highs generally in the lower 60s F for most.

With upper ridging within the northern stream branch of the jet over the eastern half of the country and into eastern Canada, a shortwave over the west coast will attempt to move south underneath, becoming largely cutoff from deep layer steering flow through mid week. It will drift southeastward into the Southern Plains before jet stream changes aloft into the weekend results in the steering flow becoming more northwesterly. This will cause the trapped shortwave, at this point likely a closed upper low, to be pushed more rapidly southeastward and into the Gulf of Mexico. As glancing influence from a potent, but distantly north, upper trough affects the cyclone, some meager degree of aid in increased upper divergence in addition to the primary lift generated by the closed low itself will combine with increasingly tightened temperature gradients/frontogenesis as aided by the warm gulf of Mexico to result in surface cyclogenesis.

Locally, we will remain in the cool sector of the cyclone and could see substantial rainfall in an increased deformation band and/or near and north of any coastally enhanced warm/stationary frontal zones. This is most likely across areas south of I-20 and in fact could be mostly confined to areas near and south of the highway 84 corridor. Depending on the exact evolution of the system, some corridor could face some risk of flash flooding. This event is still just under a week out and involves a complex interaction of multiple upper features as well as weak steering currents. For that reason, forecast confidence is too low to introduce any formal hazards into the forecast at this time. The risk will be monitored through additional forecast cycles as we get closer to next weekend. In any case, the risk for severe weather looks quite low over the next 7 days.

With increasing clouds and moisture heading into later this week, overnight lows Thur/Fri likely only fall into the 40s F as opposed to the 30s F we will see earlier this week. By Sunday night, however, we likely begin to cool off again as the Gulf system moves off and cold northerlies come in its wake. Lows will likely dip back into the 30s F. /86/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

There is a slight chance for some patchy shallow fog to develop around 12Z Tuesday, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through the period. Winds will be light and at times variable with high pressure over the region. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 31 62 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 28 61 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 30 63 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 30 62 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 31 62 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 31 60 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 31 61 35 61 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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