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FXUS64 KJAN 280632 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1232 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

New MESOSCALE UPDATE

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 1231 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Minor adjustments were made to the forecast tonight to account for greater than expected cloudcover and warmer than expected temperatures. With temperatures hovering about 5 degrees above the forecast, adjusted temps up to capture this./SAS/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

Tonight and Tuesday: Colder than normal and dry. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1028mb high centered over the Red River valley. Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a northern stream shortwave over the central Plains and a southern stream shortwave over the southern Plains. These two shortwaves will combine and involve the right rear quad of a 150kt jet streak as they move east across our region tonight. This will serve to increase mid and high level clouds that will be thick enough to affect temperatures. Visible satellite imagery already showed thin cirrus moving back over our southwest zones. The shortwaves will also support the surface high shifting east. The thickest cloud cover will be over the southern half of our CWA but across our north some less than optimal radiational cooling will occur and allow temperatures Tuesday morning to bottom out a degree or two cooler than they did this morning. Morning lows are expected to range from the upper 20s north to the mid 30s across our south. Tuesday the shortwaves will continue east of Mississippi but our winds aloft will remain northwesterly. The surface high will become centered over our CWA resulting in very light wind. Under full insolation temperatures will top out several degrees warmer than this afternoon but, remain cooler than normal in the 50s again. /22/

Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Dry weather will continue into the middle of the week. Perhaps the coldest night of the upcoming week will be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the surface ridge centers over the Deep South and and ridge axis extends westward into our area. With the likelihood of strong radiational cooling, a freeze is expected across most of the area with some locations potentially reaching the mid 20s, especially in the east/northeast. After a mild Wednesday, it won't be quite as cold Wednesday night as the surface high begins to retreat and southerly flow returns.

Thursday through next Monday: We'll transition to a more active pattern with the promise of much needed rain over the latter half of the week. On Thursday, a pronounced mid level shortwave trough will swing across the Southern Plains toward the Mid South, spurring surface cyclogenesis in the vicinity of the ArkLaTex and Ozarks Thursday afternoon. With increasing warm advection and moisture return, showers will begin to spread into our area through the day.
To our west, convection will likely develop during the afternoon given increasing mid level height falls and a potent jet streak.
Instability may be more marginal, particularly as this convection reaches our area later into the night. Nevertheless, we cannot rule out strong to severe storms, contingent on greater instability, and we'll continue to monitor this time frame.

In the wake of Thursday night's short wave, subtle mid/upper shortwave ridging will bring a break in rain chances by late in the day Friday. However, the loss of upper forcing will also cause the surface front to stall out across the region. And as additional upper waves transit the longwave trough this weekend into early next week, this will lead to additional waves of rainfall during that time frame. The highest rain chances/anticipated amounts will be further south and east in our area, which is more likely to be in the deeper moisture south of the front. Ultimately, 2-4" of rain may occur across the Pine Belt, with 1-2" amounts possible across the remainder of the area. Those rain amounts being spread out over multiple days should help minimize flooding potential, but it is too soon to rule out an isolated flooding threat as the system draws closer. The upper trough will finally begin to shift eastward by Monday, with some hope for dry weather returning late Monday into Tuesday. /DL/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

VFR conditions will prevail with some high clouds evident on satellite tonight. These should clear by daybreak. Winds will be light around 5 mph, from the NNW./SAS/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 58 31 62 41 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 58 27 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 58 31 62 41 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 59 30 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 58 32 62 43 / 0 0 0 10 Greenville 54 32 61 41 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 54 30 60 41 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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