Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Casas Adobes, AZ

DISCUSSION
The succinct forecast for Southeast Arizona over the next week is; warm then hot. This is due to the influence of a mean upper-level ridge of high pressure in the Eastern Pacific and West Coast. In the near term, our warm temperatures into this weekend are the result of an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure positioned along the California and Baja coastline. A low-amplitude trough north of the Pacific Northwest will dive SSE along the eastern periphery of the mean upper ridge the next few days, temporarily flattening the ridge across the Desert Southwest. This dry trough won't be strong enough to lower afternoon high temperatures by anything more than a few degrees.
It will, however, result in some breezes to the east and northeast of Tucson Saturday and especially Sunday. The combination of these sustained 20-foot winds 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph and minimum RHs in the single digits to teens this weekend will result in some very brief near critical fire weather conditions both Saturday and Sunday, but are not expected to be widespread or long-lived enough to be impactful.

Otherwise, a secondary high center building off the California coast near 33N/130W Sunday is forecast to strengthen next week as the upper flow amplifies and moves east into the LA basin next Tuesday...then into SW Arizona next Friday. This high center is expected to be very strong for this time of year, resulting in the potential for moderate/major HeatRisk across Southeast Arizona the end of next week into next weekend. The 13/05Z NBM 4.3 probability for the Tucson International Airport (KTUS) to hit 100 degrees is 42% next Thursday then up to 80-85% next Friday and Saturday. Given the persistence in this solution over the past several days amongst the majority of ensemble members, confidence is strong this heat will eventually impact us next week and will eventually necessitate heat-related headlines.

Reiterating the previous forecast discussion...we are on track for afternoon temperatures 20 to 25 degrees above normal in spots by late next week. This will result in widespread daily and March monthly temperatures records. While this level of heat is more typical of June, we have many visitors, seasonal residents and outdoor events in our region this time of year which typically aren't exposed to are acclimated to such hot temperatures. The time to prepare for the heat is now with heat safety precautions kept top of mind as we head into this heat wave.

AVIATION
Valid through 14/12Z. SKC through 14/00Z this afternoon, then SCT-BKN cirrus clouds AOA 20k ft AGL spreading from west to east across Southeast Arizona. SFC winds SELY less than 10 kts thru 14/20Z, WLY/NWLY winds 10-14 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts through 14/03Z Friday evening, then relaxing to light and variable less than 10 kts overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
High pressure along the West Coast will result in warm afternoon temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal through this weekend. More significant heat (20 to 25+ degrees above normal) is expected the second half of next week as high pressure across the Desert Southwest is forecast to strengthen. West to northwest 20-foot winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts to 20 mph this afternoon. Winds will become slightly stronger this weekend with west to northwest 20-foot winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph across Graham, Greenlee and Cochise counties.
Minimum RHs 8-18 percent areawide Friday through the middle of next week, then lowering into the single digits late next week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.