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FXUS64 KFWD 100016 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 616 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /This Evening through Monday Morning/

A quiet end to the weekend is in store as the region becomes well- entrenched within the post-frontal airmass. The cloud cover that has stayed atop our east and southeast counties this afternoon will continue to exit east as a shortwave moves across the Southern Plains.

The breezy winds that have plagued North and Central Texas have begun to somewhat lessen in speed, and will continue to do so over the rest of the evening. However, winds will remain elevated (around 10-20 mph) into Monday morning as the boundary layer is not fully able to decouple. The big push of cold air will encapsulate the region overnight, bringing much cooler temperatures to kick off Sunday. Expect low temperatures to bottom out in the mid 20s in the northwest to the upper 30s in the southeast. With the winds staying increased, wind chills will be decently below ambient temperatures. Minimum wind chill values will range from the upper teens in the northwest to the lower 30s in the southeast near daybreak.

Sunny skies through Sunday afternoon will allow temperatures to warm up, but continued northerly winds will keep conditions fairly modest. Highs will be able to peak into the 50s region-wide. Wind speeds will be much more tolerable Sunday afternoon as the post- frontal surface high pressure moves across the central and southern portions of the state, keeping the surface pressure gradient fairly diffuse. Northerly winds will back around to southerly flow by the evening hours as the surface high exits to our east.

Another round of chilly low temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s is expected Sunday night into Monday. Wind speeds around 5-10 mph will allow for wind chills a few degrees lower in the 20s.
Make sure to bundle up for the Monday morning commute!

Prater

LONG TERM
/Issued 210 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023/ /Sunday Night and Beyond/

Southerly surface winds will return to areas along/west of I-35 by Sunday night as surface high pressure shifts over the Southeast CONUS. East of I-35, winds will remain more light/variable until early Monday and with clear skies temperatures will likely drop into the upper 20s to low 30s late Sunday night across eastern North and Central Texas. A very dry airmass will remain anchored over the region Monday (keep that chapstick handy!) with sunny skies allowing for temperatures to rise into the low to mid 60s across much of North and Central Texas.

By Monday night into Tuesday, increasing southerly flow will begin to funnel greater quality low-level moisture over North and Central Texas ahead of the next storm system expected to dive southeast out of the Pacific Northwest and over the Desert Southwest by midweek. An associated deck of low clouds will likely lift northward over the region Monday night lingering through much of Tuesday and Tuesday night. By Wednesday, an east-northeasterly wind shift will occur as SE CONUS high pressure lifts northward ushering in a drier airmass and a brief break in low-level cloud cover. However, subtle cold advection and extensive high clouds streaming overhead in the southwest flow aloft will likely keep afternoon high temperatures in the 50s to low 60s on Wednesday (more seasonable for this time of year).

As the aforementioned upper-level low continues its trek east toward the Southern Plains, associated ascent could bring rain showers and a few thunderstorms to portions of western North and Central Texas by Wednesday. 20-40% rain chances will gradually shift eastward through the day Thursday with the greatest rain chances arriving Thursday night into Friday as the upper-level low tracks overhead and a cold front pushes through the region. There are still uncertainties in the track of this low that will ultimately determine the extent in both timing and placement of the best rain chances late in the week. Nonetheless, this frontal system looks to drop temperatures into the low to mid 50s region- wide toward the end of next week, a few degrees below-average for mid-December.

Langfeld

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

The gusty north-to-northwest winds that have been observed at the TAF sites this afternoon will continue to lessen in speed over the next several hours, eventually landing around 12 kts or less by late tonight. N-NW winds will persist through tomorrow afternoon, but D10 will have a window of more westerly winds around 22-00Z. With speeds expected to remain less than 10 kts, have opted to not include a line in the written TAF at this time for simplicity. Winds at the terminals will return to a more southerly direction around 00Z at D10/ACT and will persist through the end of the TAF period.

Prater


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 35 54 36 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 35 54 33 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 33 51 31 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 30 54 29 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 33 53 32 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 36 54 36 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 34 53 31 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 38 55 34 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 35 56 29 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 29 56 33 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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