Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Richland Hills, TX

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Sunday Night/

Visible satellite imagery shows some fairly substantial breaks in the cloud cover across North Texas this afternoon. With temperatures climbing into the mid 70s and dewpoints in the mid 60s, the atmosphere is steadily recovering in the wake of morning convection. This is supported by RAP objective analysis which has an axis of 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE slowly spreading back to the north and west. At the surface, our slow moving frontal boundary is draped across our far northwest counties from Abilene to Graham and into south-central Oklahoma. Moisture convergence along this boundary is locally maximized across Young County and this is the area where we'll watch for vigorous convective development later this afternoon. Initial thunderstorm development should be intense with all modes of severe weather possible including very large hail and a few tornadoes, but quick upscale growth into linear segments along the front is expected into the late evening hours.
Low level winds will likely remain backed into intermittent waves of lower pressure along the frontal boundary through the late evening. This may periodically enhance the tornado threat into tonight, although there's really no preferred area for this to occur other than broadly across our northwest counties. Low level winds have backed substantially over the last hour, so we'll continue to monitor this through the afternoon as initial storms would be discrete and most likely to produce a tornado. During the overnight hours, the line of thunderstorms will be slow to move eastward, allowing for training thunderstorms across our northwest counties. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches is likely in this area with isolated totals approaching 6 inches. The current Flood Watch will remain unchanged for this forecast.

The complex of storms will approach the I-35 corridor by morning, but will quickly be in a weakening state as the main upper trough pulls off to the northeast. Most areas will pick up some rainfall through mid morning on Sunday, but areas to the south and east of the Metroplex will see lesser totals. This whole area of rain will quickly move east through the morning with clearing occurring through the afternoon hours. All precipitation should end across our far eastern counties by evening with mostly clear and drier conditions expected Sunday night.

Dunn

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Monday through Saturday/

A lull in the activity is expected Monday into Tuesday as our frontal boundary remains draped across Southeast Texas. We'll see generally mostly sunny skies with near normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday, but moisture will quickly start to return Tuesday afternoon as southerly winds become re-established. Several fast moving disturbances will spread through the Southern Plains Tuesday through Friday and we'll continue to see a period of active weather including the threat for severe storms.
Thunderstorms should develop along a dryline Tuesday afternoon to our west and near the retreating warm front across our Central TX counties. Activity will become more widespread Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. We'll have high PoPs on Wednesday, but if an organized complex of storms does move through Tuesday night, then these will likely be too high. A stronger disturbance is expected to move through on Thursday with additional chances for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. This activity should move east of the area on Friday. The active pattern looks to continue beyond next weekend.

Dunn

AVIATION
/NEW/ /18Z TAFs/

VFR prevails across the region in the wake of earlier showers and storms although there are some scattered light showers throughout North and Central TX. The atmosphere is undergoing some recovery this afternoon and additional thunderstorms are expected to develop later in the day, mainly to the west and northwest of the major airports. We'll have a VCTS in from 23-02Z given some potential for storms to develop very near the major airports, but better storm chances are expected during the late overnight hours.
We'll have prevailing TSRA from 10-13Z with west winds expected behind the line of convection. Thunderstorms should be in a weakening state by early Sunday morning. VFR will prevail by late morning through the rest of Sunday afternoon.

Dunn

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Limited spotter activation may be requested this evening across North Texas. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 64 77 55 80 / 90 90 60 0 0 Waco 83 65 80 52 82 / 40 60 70 5 5 Paris 79 66 75 50 78 / 60 30 80 10 0 Denton 76 60 74 48 79 / 100 100 60 0 0 McKinney 77 64 75 51 78 / 90 80 70 0 0 Dallas 79 65 77 55 81 / 90 80 70 0 0 Terrell 80 66 76 52 79 / 50 40 60 5 5 Corsicana 83 68 79 55 82 / 20 20 60 10 10 Temple 84 65 80 53 85 / 30 60 70 5 10 Mineral Wells 77 57 76 48 82 / 90 100 10 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>093-100>102.