LONG TERM
/Issued 322 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ /Sunday Onward/

After one more day with rain chances and cooler temperatures to finish out the weekend, a more typical summer-like pattern of hot and dry weather will prevail the rest of the week. Afternoon highs will transition from near/slightly below normal to as much 5 to 10 degrees above normal for locations across North Texas through the work week.

North and Central Texas will remain under some influence of an upper level trough for one more day as it gradually departs to the northeast and becomes an open wave. Southerly onshore flow will continue to advect and abundance of Gulf moisture into Central and East Texas; however, the main axis of 2"+ PWAT values will remain closer to the coast. Weak lift and ample moisture will support the chance of showers and storms (20-40%) once again, with lightning and brief heavy rainfall remaining the primary threats due to weak flow aloft. Although higher heights will be nudging in from the west Sunday, it will still be near or below normal for much of the area temperature wise, with highs generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Monday marks the true arrival of a more stagnant pattern, thanks to ridging aloft gradually becoming centered over the forecast area. Resultant subsidence will promote a warming trend, with highs in the mid 90s (Central TX) and upper 90s (North TX) Monday afternoon turning to highs in the upper 90s (Central TX) and widespread triple digits (North TX) by Thursday. Locations generally north of I-20 and west of U.S. 281 across the Big Country are the most likely to exceed 105 degrees, with a 30-50% chance both Thursday and Friday. Heat indices will be a few degrees higher each day, increasing the risk for heat-related illnesses, and also likely necessitating heat headlines in some fashion. While this isn't a record breaking heat wave by any means, the recent stretch of below normal temperatures will exacerbate the effects of the upcoming heat, especially for those expected to experience multiple 100+ degree days this week.
Remember to know your limits outdoors, take plenty of breaks, and stay hydrated.

Gordon

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

Low ceilings have been spotty early this morning, staying mainly across East and Southeast Texas. However, an area of stratus is currently expanding northward from Central Texas and will reach all of the Metroplex TAF sites by TAF issuance time. Ceilings may briefly fall below 1000 ft but overall should stay between 1000 and 2000 ft. A gradual improvement will occur through the morning with VFR expected this afternoon and evening.

A few showers and storms will develop through the day, primarily to the east and southeast of the TAF sites.

A south to southeast wind will prevail between 6 and 12 knots along with some higher daytime gusts.

79


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 74 93 77 98 / 10 0 5 0 0 Waco 88 72 91 75 96 / 20 0 20 0 0 Paris 86 71 91 75 94 / 40 5 20 0 0 Denton 92 72 95 76 99 / 10 5 5 0 0 McKinney 90 73 93 76 98 / 20 0 10 0 0 Dallas 90 74 94 77 98 / 20 0 10 0 0 Terrell 88 72 91 75 95 / 30 5 20 0 0 Corsicana 88 74 92 76 96 / 30 5 20 0 0 Temple 88 72 91 74 95 / 20 5 20 0 0 Mineral Wells 94 72 96 75 100 / 5 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.