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FXUS64 KFWD 080110 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 710 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Friday Night/

The stratocumulus deck we had across portions of North and Central Texas has gradually dissipated with the loss of surface heating, leading to mostly clear skies except for a few cirrus clouds still lingering around. This stream of cirrus is slightly more prevalent across our southern zones, but either way, pleasant weather will take us through this evening.

As we move into the overnight hours, cloud cover will increase area-wide once again thanks to a surge of low-level moisture supported by a 30 to 40 kt low-level jet. Overnight lows will be much warmer as a result of increasing cloud cover and southerly winds, ranging in the mid to upper 50s. A developing stratus deck will overtake much of North and Central Texas by early Friday morning and will last into Friday afternoon before clearing out as a dryline pushes into the region and subsidence increases. This coupled with south-westerly winds at the surface will lead to afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s across the region, leading to quite a warm December afternoon. For reference, the record high at DFW on December 8th is 80F and this occurred in 1977. The current forecast is just shy of this at 78F, so this will be worth keeping an eye on.

Elevated fire weather conditions will make a short return along and west of Highway 281 due to relative humidity values falling below 25%, gusty south-westerly winds, and dry conditions. That being said, a few light showers cannot be ruled out across our far eastern counties on Friday.

Reeves

LONG TERM
/Issued 323 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023/ /Friday Night Onward/

A cold front will push through North Texas Friday night and through Central and East Texas Saturday, dropping temperatures to more seasonable values and bringing a chance of rain to eastern portions of the region. The front and attendant upper trough will not encounter any appreciable moisture until the associated forcing for ascent reaches East Texas, keeping the majority of the region rain-free. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be limited to areas east of I-45 / Hwy 75, where a few strong storms may occur during the day Saturday. An isolated severe storm cannot be completely ruled out before activity exits to our east, particularly late morning and early afternoon as the main trough axis swings through and the atmosphere destabilizes near the departing front. The better strong/severe weather set-up will be farther east across the over Mississippi Valley.

A cold Saturday night can be expected as clouds vacate and post- frontal north winds begin to abate. Temperatures should fall to or below freezing across the northwest quadrant of the CWA with the rest of the region bottoming in the mid and upper 30s. A cool Sunday will then follow as the surface ridge eases in from the northwest, with afternoon highs being 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

Return flow will begin Sunday night as the ridge shifts to our east, which will start a slow warming trend for the first part of the workweek. Temperatures will return to near-normal values for both Monday and Tuesday, with lows in the 30s and highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The surface ridge will stall over the southeast states before retrograding to the Ohio valley, causing surface winds to back from the south-southwest to the southeast during the midweek period. The resulting low level flow will bring and uptick in Gulf moisture as the next upper low deepens over the southern Rockies. The low will slow or possibly stall, limiting any rain chances in the extended forecast to the western half of the region for mid to late next week.

30

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR cigs by ~08z Friday morning.

VFR conditions prevail across all TAF sites this evening with some lingering cirrus across portions of Central Texas. Ceilings will drop to around 020 to 040 by around 08z Friday, with a low chance (30%) of IFR ceilings spreading out across the region as a stratus deck develops early Friday morning. Conditions will start to improve as we move into Friday afternoon.

South-westerly winds around 15 to 20 kts, gusting upwards of 25 to 30 kts will continue on Friday afternoon before diminishing after sunset.

Reeves


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 59 78 50 63 35 / 0 0 5 5 5 Waco 61 78 57 67 37 / 0 0 0 10 5 Paris 55 71 52 64 34 / 5 10 30 20 10 Denton 57 76 43 60 30 / 0 0 0 5 5 McKinney 58 75 48 62 33 / 0 0 5 10 5 Dallas 60 77 50 64 37 / 0 0 5 5 5 Terrell 58 75 55 64 35 / 0 5 10 10 5 Corsicana 61 77 60 68 38 / 0 5 5 20 10 Temple 60 78 56 69 36 / 0 0 0 10 5 Mineral Wells 55 80 43 62 31 / 0 0 0 5 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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