Monday, October14, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Worth, TX

Version 3.4
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
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Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 6:58PM Monday October 14, 2019 8:02 PM CDT (01:02 UTC) Moonrise 6:49PMMoonset 7:06AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Worth, TX
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location: 32.77, -97.29     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
737 pm cdt Mon oct 14 2019

00z tafs
several aviation concerns over the next 30 hours...

MVFR and ifr ceilings area wide through the night
scattered TS after midnight across north texas
ceilings should lift toVFR around mid-morning
ts redeveloping tomorrow afternoon ahead of cold front
tomorrow evening night:
northerly wind shift behind cold front
additional MVFR ceilings behind the front possible overnight
discussion: a warm front is currently observed across across
north central texas south of the metroplex. This boundary is
expected to slowly drift northward through the night as a surface low
deepens across the tx ok panhandles. Widespread MVFR ifr ceilings
are observed north of the boundary and are expected to continue
through the night. The MVFR deck is currently moving into the
eastern portions of the metroplex and should continue moving
northwest over the next few hours overtaking all metroplex taf
terminals by 02-04z. Until then, expect all airfields to bounce
betweenVFR-MVFR with periods of ifr as scattered rain showers
move through. All airfields are expected to lower to ifr by
02-05z, however this may be delayed by an hour or two.

Strong low level southerly flow overtop of the warm front will
allow widespread rain showers to continue and intensify through
the night, developing isolated to scattered TS generally after
midnight. This will mostly impact the eastern portions of the d10
airspace and the eastern arrival gates. The precip and TS should
become more scattered after daybreak as heating helps to disperse
the low level cloud shield and veering low level winds advect
slightly drier air into the lowest levels.

The breaks in cloud cover will help to destabilize the environment
tomorrow afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front associated
with the aformentioned low in the tx ok panhandles. This front is
currently expected to move through north texas around 00-03z. Ts
development is possible ahead of the boundary after ~20z across
north texas and ~23z across central texas. Confidence of convection
developing tomorrow is high, however, the locations and timing is
still low attm. Expect a sharp northerly wind shift with the cold
front and periods of MVFR ceilings for a few hours behind frontal


Long term issued 241 pm cdt Mon oct 14 2019
Wednesday onward
synopsis: the second half of the week and the first half of the
weekend will feature relatively quiet weather, and a steady
warming trend. Another storm system looks to develop over the
rockies late in the weekend, bringing another cold front as well
as rain storm chances to north central texas by Sunday and next

The extended portion of the forecast will pick up in the wake of
Tuesday night's cold front passage. Wednesday will feature below
normal temperatures with highs ranging from the upper 60s (south)
to near 70 (north). Temperatures will likely be a little cooler in
the south as there may be some lingering showers, and certainly
some lingering cloud cover there for the first half of the day. By
Wednesday night, calm winds, clear skies, and dewpoints in the
low 40s should allow for excellent radiational cooling. Lows will
fall into the 40s across virtually all of our forecast area.

A steady warming trend will commence Thursday and into the weekend
as ridging aloft builds over the central conus. A weak shortwave
trough will slide south of the ridge through the rio grande
valley, but any ascent associated with this trough will likely
remain to our south. This will keep rain chances across the hill
country and into the lower rio grande, and away from our forecast

The next storm system will begin to develop late this weekend over
the rocky mountains. While the models vary on the details, the
deterministic ecmwf, gfs, and their ensembles, are in good
agreement of deep anomalous troughing over the western CONUS on
Saturday and into Sunday. As the trough axis digs into the rocky
mountains late Saturday, differential cyclonic vorticity advection
and strong upper-level divergence near the exit region of a 100+
knot jet streak at 250 hpa will result in lee cyclogenesis. As
this low deepens, strong warm air advection will allow
temperatures to rise well above normal for Sunday. A surface cold
front is likely to push through late Sunday or Monday as the
surface low lifts northeast into the great lakes region.

Precipitation appears likely ahead of this cold front, but at 6-7
days out, it's a little early to get too far out into the weeds
with regards to severe weather or heavy rain potential. The bottom
line right now is that with us now deep into autumn, the weather
pattern looks to remain active for the foreseeable future.


Short term issued 220 pm cdt Mon oct 14 2019
this afternoon through Tuesday
we continue to monitor a surface warm front near the colorado
valley and far southwest CWA as it is expected to lift northward
late today and this evening across the area. This process will be
supported by increasing mid level energy arriving from the
southern stream of the westerlies from mexico, as it carries mid-
upper level moisture from a previous weak tropical low that was
near the baja peninsula of northwest mexico this time yesterday.

Meanwhile, increasing southerly flow to between 20-30 knots will
draw rich gulf moisture northward this evening with scattered to
numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms expected by mid
evening. This activity will continue through midnight; or into
the early pre-dawn hours Tuesday along and either side of the
i-20 30 corridors as this will be where ascent will be maximized.

In addition, better theta-e advection will be focused across this
area while lesser rain chances tonight are expected across central
texas -- more displaced from the surface warm front and better
mid level forcing.

Neither flooding or severe weather are expected, but lightning
strikes and the resulting cracks of thunder may be enough to wake
you up. Despite increasing south- southeast surface winds later
today into this evening, plentiful cloudiness will keep highs in
check with many areas remaining in the mid- upper 70s. Some
locations west of us 281 could reach the low 80s where a thinner
cloud layer and earlier warm front passage will exist and occur

During the pre-dawn hours subsidence behind the departing
subtropical branch mid level impulse should help most areas
remain dry though there may be some lingering showers across the
northeast counties. Strong mixing and southerly winds 10-15 mph by
late morning and beyond Tuesday should set up a very warm and
breezy mid october day for the area. Areas along and west of i-35
will see highs from the mid 80s to around 90 degrees along and west
of us 281 as we experience veering low level flow just in advance
of an approaching strong surface cold front. The cold front looks
to enter the red river valley by late afternoon, as it's
supported by a more vigorous mid level impulse diving southeast
from the northern stream of the westerlies across far west texas
and new mexico Tuesday afternoon. This is further west than
previous forecast model runs and cams noted in previous days.

Still, there will be enough juxtaposition of forcing from this
impulse and convergence just in advance of the cold front for the
development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms in advance of
the cold front; especially east of i-35, where the veered low
level wind fields will focus the better low level theta-e

The very warm temperatures in the 80s will combine with rich gulf
moisture transporting northward for instability values reaching
1500-2000 j kg in advance and along the cold front. Finally, i
believe the marginal risk east of i-35 and north of i-20 looks
well-warranted with northwesterly deep layer shear values between
35-45 knots and effective wind bulk wind differences on the order
of 50 knots plus. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised with the
slightly slower cold front arrival if there isn't an expansion of
this area southwestward with a possible slight risk introduced
across the ark-la-tex back into southeast oklahoma and possibly
our far northeast counties if these parameters continue to hold up
the next 24-30 hours.


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 69 87 54 70 49 50 60 40 5 5
waco 70 89 57 70 49 30 60 60 10 5
paris 64 80 49 65 44 70 80 50 0 5
denton 68 88 52 70 46 50 60 30 0 5
mckinney 68 86 51 69 46 60 70 40 0 5
dallas 70 87 55 70 49 50 60 50 5 5
terrell 68 86 54 70 47 70 70 60 5 5
corsicana 69 85 55 68 48 50 60 60 10 5
temple 70 88 57 69 50 20 60 60 20 5
mineral wells 67 89 50 71 44 30 50 30 0 5

Fwd watches warnings advisories

06 30

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX5 mi70 minSSE 99.00 miLight Rain71°F68°F90%1012.2 hPa
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX6 mi71 minSE 810.00 miOvercast74°F68°F82%1011.4 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, TX13 mi70 minSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F66°F84%1012.7 hPa
Fort Worth Spinks Airport, TX14 mi73 minSSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F66°F83%1013.9 hPa
Grand Prairie, Grand Prairie Municipal Airport, TX14 mi73 minSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F66°F88%1013.9 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX15 mi70 minS 99.00 miLight Rain73°F68°F84%1012 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX17 mi70 minSE 87.00 miLight Rain69°F66°F90%1012.3 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX23 mi70 minSE 810.00 miOvercast68°F64°F87%1012.8 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX24 mi70 minSE 108.00 miLight Rain70°F64°F84%1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFTW

Wind History from FTW (wind in knots)
1 day agoSE5SE7S4CalmCalmE5SE4S5S5SE6S5S5S8S9SW10S9
2 days agoN9N7N9N9N9N7N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE3NE74--CalmSE3E6SE5E4SE6

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GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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