Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Worth, TX

Version 3.4
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12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:55PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 7:47 AM CDT (12:47 UTC) Moonrise 6:41PMMoonset 6:08AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Worth, TX
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location: 32.77, -97.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 071040 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 540 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SHORT TERM. /NEW/

Update: No significant changes were made for the morning update, other than to remove the mention of measurable precipitation for today. Radar echoes continue to diminish as the stronger corridor of winds aloft shifts toward the Ark-La-Tex. A few sprinkles will be possible, but measurable precipitation is not anticipated. Otherwise, patchy to areas of fog will persist this morning. Widespread dense fog is not anticipated, though visibility may fall down to near 1 mile across the Brazos Valley and across portions of East Texas.

Highs are still expected to be above normal with temperatures in the 80s for most locales. For more details, please see the previous public forecast discussion below.

Bain

Previous Discussion:

/Today and Tonight/

Low chances for sprinkles or very light rain along with warm conditions are the main weather headlines for the next 24 to 30 hours. Despite lingering cloudiness, high temperatures will still range between 5 and 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Low level moisture continues to flow northward this morning as southerly winds continue to envelop the area. A deeper pocket of surface moisture---demarcated by the 70 degree isodrosotherm---has lifted toward the I-20 corridor. With slightly "cooler" and less humid conditions near and north of I-20 . the gradual increase in moisture will continue to support the development of some patchy fog. I'll advertise patchy fog near I-20 and points northward toward the Red River as this relatively more moist airmass continues its slow trek north during the pre-dawn hours. There will be a risk for patchy to areas of fog across East Texas/Brazos Valley as well. Widespread dense fog is not expected across the forecast area, though visibility could fall to 1 mile in spots.

Light rain showers or sprinkles will be possible this morning as a mid-level conveyor of slightly stronger winds (around 50 knots) overspreads the area. Our 00Z RAOB did indicate a dry pocket of air within the 700-850mb layer and this will likely preclude much in the way of measurable rainfall today. I've painted a stripe of slight chance PoPs along the I-20 corridor with a mention of sprinkles elsewhere. Thunder chances appear low at this time.

For this afternoon, low clouds should scatter, though with troughing still across Baja California, I expect a steady influx of mid/upper level Pacific moisture. While low level flow will veer with the approach and passage of the dryline, I expect that sunshine will be quite filtered as North and Central Texas remains beneath a cirrus canopy. Though downslope warming will contribute to temperatures being 5 to 15 degrees above normal, I'll shave a degree or two off of previously forecast high temperatures given the anticipated cloud cover. Highs will still remain in the low to mid 80s. If cloud cover really thins, highs in the upper 80s are quite possible. While the dryline will mix eastward toward the I-35 corridor, near surface flow is very veered---thereby limiting low level convergence. Aloft, there may actually be a bit of shortwave ridging which would imply synoptic scale subsidence. Cloud cover may limit diabatic heating and likely not be a huge factor in the erosion of the cap. As such, I've removed the mention of storms from the forecast for today and most hi-res guidance appears to concur.

Tonight appears as if it'll be quite mild as winds aloft remain elevated. With the boundary layer likely not fully decoupling, it's probable that overnight lows will remain in the 60s. Some spots across the Brazos Valley may only see lows fall to near 70 degrees. The fog threat appears low given the elevated winds aloft, but we'll refine this portion of the forecast through the day.

Bain

LONG TERM. /Issued 319 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020/

/Wednesday through Monday/

The main weather feature for the long term portion of this forecast is a powerful upper low currently spinning along the Central California Coast. This low pressure system will keep a constant fetch of mid and upper level moisture from the Pacific over the Lone Star State through the end of the week. Numerous shortwaves will also rotate through the base of the upper low, resulting in multiple opportunities for rain and thunderstorms. The overall severe weather threat appears low at this time, but a few strong storms will be possible across Central Texas on Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week, compliments of veered southwesterly surface winds ahead of a cold front. There will also be the most sun on Wednesday due to brief ridging aloft and a strong capping inversion. There is a low chance that the cap could break Wednesday afternoon mainly across Central Texas, resulting in a chance for storms. There may be enough instability to support some strong storms, but veered surface flow will limit shear and the overall severe weather threat. Highs will range from the mid 80s to around 90s, but these summer like conditions will be brief due to the arrival of a strong cold front Wednesday night and Thursday.

We will maintain low storm chances Wednesday night across our Central Texas counties, but again, a strong cap and limited forcing may hinder storm development. Lows Wednesday night will range from the mid 50s near the Red River to the upper 60s across the southern counties.

The cold front will move quickly south through the forecast area Thursday, resulting in a 15 to 20 degree cooldown from Wednesdays highs. Rain and thunderstorm chances will also increase Thursday as the upper low moves into the Desert Southwest, enhancing lift over the shallow, cool airmass. The highest precipitation chances will likely be across Central Texas where the best lift and moisture will reside. Rain chances will decrease Thursday night with subtle ridging aloft, but the pattern does look favorable for at least some patchy drizzle and fog.

Friday and Friday night will be remain cool with extensive clouds and very slow return flow. Rain chances (and some thunderstorms) will also increase from west to east as the upper low tracks east across Arizona and New Mexico. The extended models still differ a bit on the speed of the system, but are close enough to keep chance to likely PoPs on Saturday when large scale lift is maximized. Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east Saturday night/Sunday morning once the upper low finally lifts northeast of the region and a cold front moves in. Sunday night should be rain free and cool with lows in the 40s and lower 50s. Some post frontal showers and elevated thunderstorms will be possible across North Texas Monday as shortwave energy embedded in northwest flow aloft translates across the region.

79

AVIATION. /NEW/ /12 UTC TAF Cycle/

Concerns---Ceiling/visibility trends thru 15 UTC Thereafter. VFR.

Low clouds (LIFR/IFR/MVFR) continue for locations near and east of I-35. Western D10 TAFs (FTW/AFW) will likely start the TAF cycle with VFR cigs, though MVFR vsby around 4-5 sm may linger through mid-morning Elsewhere. cigs will range between MVFR and LIFR. I expect that these conditions will persist no later than 1500 UTC at the eastern most TAFs and an improvement sooner than what is advertised is quite possible. VFR vsby is just about a guarantee by 16 UTC as filtered sunshine overspread the area. VFR will continue through the rest of the forecast period. Occasional cigs around FL150 are forecast through the day with southwesterly breezes around 10 to 12 knots. No crosswind issues are anticipated.

Bain

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 67 91 60 67 / 10 5 10 10 30 Waco 86 68 89 65 72 / 10 5 10 10 50 Paris 81 66 86 58 67 / 10 10 10 10 20 Denton 85 64 90 58 66 / 10 5 10 10 20 McKinney 85 65 89 59 67 / 10 5 5 10 20 Dallas 86 68 91 61 68 / 10 5 5 10 20 Terrell 85 68 89 62 69 / 10 5 10 20 30 Corsicana 84 70 88 65 71 / 10 5 10 20 40 Temple 86 69 89 65 73 / 10 5 10 20 50 Mineral Wells 86 64 89 58 65 / 10 5 10 5 30

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

24/79


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX5 mi54 minS 65.00 miFog/Mist66°F66°F100%1013.1 hPa
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX6 mi1.9 hrsSSE 56.00 miFog/Mist67°F64°F93%1012 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, TX13 mi54 minSSE 45.00 miFog/Mist68°F64°F90%1013.3 hPa
Fort Worth Spinks Airport, TX14 mi61 minS 55.00 miFog/Mist66°F66°F100%1014.6 hPa
Grand Prairie, Grand Prairie Municipal Airport, TX14 mi57 minS 64.00 miFog/Mist68°F68°F100%1014.2 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX15 mi54 minS 97.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F66°F93%1012.7 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX17 mi54 minS 104.00 miFog/Mist67°F66°F100%1012.6 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX23 mi54 minS 87.00 miFair69°F66°F90%1013.1 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX24 mi54 minS 85.00 miFog/Mist70°F66°F87%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFTW

Wind History from FTW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE9S9SE4SE9S7S12SE12S12S9S8S6S7CalmNW3SE5E43--SE4SE5S6S6S6
1 day agoN5NE4NE4E3SE6E5SE3CalmE6E6SE9SE7SE8SE5SE5SE6SE8SE8SE5SE6SE7SE6S4SE6
2 days agoNW7N7N8N8NW3NW10NW9N5E5N8N10NW6N5N6CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmNW4NW5N4N4NE5

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GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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