Sunday, January19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Worth, TX

Version 3.4
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12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 5:50PM Sunday January 19, 2020 9:24 AM CST (15:24 UTC) Moonrise 2:38AMMoonset 1:37PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Worth, TX
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location: 32.77, -97.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 191111 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 511 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

SHORT TERM. /NEW/ /Through Monday/

Sunday is off to a cold start with an arctic airmass settling into the Southern Plains. Most areas will begin the day within a few degrees of freezing with wind chill values in the 20s. With dry air in place, temperatures will warm rather quickly throughout the day given ample insolation, and highs are expected to reach the low to mid 50s. The only cloud cover will consist of some passing cirrus clouds later this afternoon and evening associated with a subtle progressive shortwave. This cloud cover is not expected to have a noticeable effect on temperatures today or tonight.

With light winds, low dewpoints, and mostly clear skies, temperatures should cool rapidly again tonight with most of the CWA falling to near or below freezing. On Monday, a surface ridge axis will nudge its way into northeastern Texas. This will keep surface flow northerly in North Texas, while parts of Central Texas see winds veer to the southeast. The result should be a gradient of highs near 60 across our southwest to near 50 across our northeast. No rain is expected through Monday with the area remaining devoid of moisture.

-Stalley

LONG TERM. /Issued 225 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020/ /Monday through Next Weekend/

After a rain/storm-free start to the work week, precipitation chances will steadily increase around mid-week (Wednesday and Thursday). There will be a low risk for a rain/snow mix, mainly across Northeast Texas, but at this juncture, significant accumulations of snow or ice are NOT expected. Precipitation chances diminish Friday with what should be a rain/storm-free final weekend of January.

North and Central Texas should be void of any precipitation to start the work week as surface high pressure dominates the synoptic scale weather picture. Modest CAA will continue across most of the area as northerly to northeasterly breezes persist. This will lead to afternoon temperatures a few degrees below normal values on Monday. The exception may be across parts of the northern Big Country and western North Texas where north winds will be a tad lighter. Monday night appears as if it will still remain cold with many sites near or just below the "freezing" mark. Some patchy frost will be possible, especially for the sheltered regions of North and Central Texas. Tuesday remains a bit of a tricky forecast as model guidance offers varying solutions. What transpires Tuesday will be very important for Wednesday's precipitation chances. What I am confident in is that the daylight hours on Tuesday will remain precipitation-free. The latest NAM and to some degree the Canadian advertise that a shallow, cold airmass will slip southward through the Ozarks and ease into North Texas from the northeast. While the GFS does indicate cold FROPA, it's not nearly to the degree of the NAM/Canadian. I'll hedge toward the colder solutions given that these shallow, cold airmasses tend to sneak a bit farther to the south than indicated in coarser guidance.

I've nudged temperatures down by a few degrees for parts of the CWA, with the coldest conditions across Northeast Texas, where temperatures may hold steady in the mid 40s. Elsewhere, the mercury should rise into the low 50s. With a shallow layer of cold air expected to be in place, we'll likely have enough ascent along this surface for clouds and precipitation (perhaps as early as Tuesday evening across the Hill Country) as southerly flow level flow ramps up ahead of the next upper trough. Model guidance continues to trend upward with regard to these rain chances late Tuesday into Wednesday and given that the isentropic ascent now appears to be stronger than previously thought over the cooler surface airmass, higher PoPs seem warranted. If the cold airmass does not advance as far south as currently thought, then current PoPs may be overdone. Regardless, the airmass will be a little moisture deficient, and I expect that any precipitation amounts will remain light, despite 50 and 60 PoPs late Tuesday into Wednesday.

While we will be underneath the influence of a WAA regime aloft, there appears to be a chance for some wintry precipitation on Wednesday morning, mainly across Northeast Texas. Forecast soundings suggest that enough evaporative cooling may occur near and northeast of a Sulphur Springs to Bonham line to allow for a few snow flakes or sleet pellets to mix in with light rain. At this time, I expect that amounts will be light and this should mitigate any significant impacts due to winter weather. We'll refine this forecast as we get closer. Any winter precipitation should transition to just a cold rain by the afternoon hours. Wednesday will be quite cool with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal and it'll certainly feel dreary with mostly cloudy skies.

Increased WAA should take place as our next upper trough evolves and translates to the east across North and Central Texas. In addition, a more bonafide front (though possibly Pacific in nature) will slide to the east through the day on Thursday. With the warm conveyor strengthening, we'll likely see our most widespread rain chances on Thursday with current PoPs ranging between 60 and 70 percent. The increase in moisture coupled with the cooler air aloft should mean that some instability sufficient for storms will develop. I'll continue to carry a mention of isolated thunderstorms for most locales Thursday afternoon. Rainfall amounts should be heftier during this time period mostly thanks to deeper convection. Severe weather does not appear likely as instability will still remain on the low side.

Rain/isolated storms should exit East Texas Friday morning with slowly clearing skies ensuing shortly thereafter. Friday's temperatures are tricky as the magnitude of CAA is a little unknown. If surface winds attain a bit more of a westerly component, it's quite possible that downsloping will support temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. This is uncertain and as a result, I'll lean heavily on blended guidance which is a touch cooler with temperatures largely in the low to mid 50s and low 60s. Next weekend looks mostly rain/storm free, though we'll need to watch for any return flow across Central Texas which could result in some low rain/storm chances. For now, I'll hedge toward a rain/storm-free forecast with near to above normal afternoon high temperatures for most areas.

Bain

AVIATION. /NEW/ /12z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail into Monday. The only cloud cover will consist of some passing cirrus later today associated with a fast-moving upper disturbance. Winds will oscillate between northwest and northeast through the period while generally remaining less than 10 kts.

-Stalley

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 52 32 55 35 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 55 29 57 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 51 28 50 30 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 52 27 55 32 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 52 28 52 32 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 53 33 55 35 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 52 29 55 31 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 54 33 55 35 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 54 30 57 35 53 / 0 0 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 52 30 56 35 51 / 0 0 0 0 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

26/24


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX5 mi2.5 hrsNNW 410.00 miFair32°F24°F73%1034.4 hPa
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX6 mi92 minNNW 510.00 miFair36°F26°F67%1033.1 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, TX13 mi91 minNW 310.00 miFair33°F26°F75%1034.8 hPa
Fort Worth Spinks Airport, TX14 mi92 minN 510.00 miFair32°F26°F80%1035.2 hPa
Grand Prairie, Grand Prairie Municipal Airport, TX14 mi94 minNNW 410.00 miClear36°F24°F65%1035.6 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX15 mi91 minNNW 410.00 miFair32°F23°F69%1035.7 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX17 mi91 minN 510.00 miFair33°F26°F75%1034.3 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX23 mi91 minN 610.00 miFair34°F24°F67%1034.5 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX24 mi91 minN 510.00 miFair34°F26°F73%1035.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFTW

Wind History from FTW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13
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--N13N8N9N7N7N6N9--N6N8--N7NW4NW4
1 day ago--S6W7NW4W3W3SE4S7--W3S6SW4SW3S5S9S15
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SW8SW7S7W9W10W8NW9
2 days agoN14N13N12N12N11N13N13NE11N9NE9E12E10E10E8--E9E10E11E7E5E5E3E5E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.