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FXUS64 KFWD 091117 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 517 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update:

A cold front will move through all of North and Central Texas this morning, resulting in a much cooler day compared to yesterday. We have removed the mention of precip associated with the cold front in this forecast update and also tweaked the remaining forecast elements with the latest data. No major changes were made so the discussion below largely remains on track.

Bonnette

Previous Discussion: /This Weekend/

The workweek ended on a very warm note, but a strong cold front will move through this morning and bring much cooler air to the region this weekend. There is a weak surface trough, remnants of yesterday's dryline, currently stalled over North Texas. Cool and dry air with near calm winds reside north of the boundary while mild and humid air with breezy south winds reside south of the boundary. A few locations between the I-30/I-20 corridors may experience a few hours of fog, but widespread dense fog is not expected. Additionally, patchy fog may develop along the I-35 corridor in Central Texas along the western edge of a stratus deck across eastern Central Texas. The actual cold front lags behind the stalled surface trough and is difficult to analyze as the airmasses undergo a merger over the next several hours. Either way, the cold front will overtake the surface trough before sunrise and continue moving south this morning. Expect a drop in temp and dewpoint behind the cold front, with even a few hours of post-frontal stratus possible across North Texas. The front should move through most of our Central Texas counties near sunrise.

The chance for precipitation along the front has decreased as increasingly veered flow shunted deep moisture east. We have maintained a less than 20% chance of showers this morning across far Northeast Texas, but even those chances are fleeting as this discussion gets typed.

Cold advection during the pre-dawn hours will be noticeable, but it will become blatantly obvious between 8-10 AM when the boundary layer deepens. This will transport stronger winds aloft down to the surface, resulting in a cool and breezy day. Wind speeds should remain below our Wind Advisory criteria, but still strong enough to blow around inflatable yard decorations if they are not deflated. Cold advection will be offset by insolation so highs are projected to climb into the 60s for most. Temperatures should fall quickly this evening, resulting in a cold Sunday morning. A light freeze is expected for those northwest of the Metroplex and across the Big Country, with the remainder of the forecast area falling into the mid to upper 30s. The winds will still be gusty Sunday morning, with wind chills in the 20s early in the day. A high pressure center will emerge out of West Texas early Sunday and move into our forecast area late in the day. Sunday should be the coolest day with this system as highs remain in the low to mid 50s areawide under clear to mostly clear skies.

Bonnette

LONG TERM
/Issued 310 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023/ /Next Week/

Southerly surface winds will begin returning Sunday night, keeping North Central Texas and the Big Country above freezing. But for Central and East Texas, the advection will be negligible, and speeds will be light enough that temperatures Monday morning will be several degrees cooler than 24 hours previous. This means freezing temperatures for much of Central and East Texas, with some locations dipping into the 20s. For the entire region, this will be the last freeze of the week. The southerly winds and sunshine will add 5 to 10 degrees to Monday afternoon's temperatures, which will top 60F in nearly every locale.

By Tuesday, the flow aloft will gain a southerly component as the next system dives south through the Intermountain West. As it taps the subtropical jet, a plume of cirrus will progressively invade the sky. In the low-levels, Gulf moisture will steadily increase with low clouds spreading north underneath the cirrus canopy.
Initially, this will only reduce daytime temperatures across western portions of North Texas. But by Wednesday, the clouds will become more widespread, and the entire region will peak in the 50s. As the system approaches, rain showers may affect western portions of North Texas as early as Wednesday, the activity becoming more widespread on Thursday. While guidance continues to disagree on the evolution late in the week, the associated front should arrive on Friday with additional rain. A wetting rainfall is anticipated regionwide, but mid to late week event totals vary from less than 1/4 inch in East Texas to near an inch across the Big Country. After Friday's frontal passage, cooler but seasonal temperatures will settle in during the following weekend.

25

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

A cold front is currently moving through the D10 terminals and will move through ACT before 12Z. Patchy post-frontal stratus has developed across North Texas that will bring intermittent MVFR ceilings to the D10 terminals through ~14Z. IFR ceilings at ACT will improve to VFR between now and 13Z. After the stratus moves east, VFR/mostly clear skies will prevail for the remainder of the TAF period.

North flow is expected behind FROPA with increasing wind speeds through the day. Wind speeds should peak in the mid to late afternoon before slowly weakening tonight.

Bonnette

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 36 53 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 66 34 54 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 62 33 51 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 60 30 53 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 61 32 53 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 63 36 53 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 64 34 52 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 66 36 53 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 67 35 56 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 59 29 56 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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