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FXUS64 KFWD 300631 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1231 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Night/

Key Message: A rather conditional set-up for a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of all hazard modes is expected late Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon across portions of eastern Central Texas and the Brazos Valley. Further north into portions of North Texas, the environment will support a few stronger storm cells capable of producing marginally severe hail through Thursday evening. Main time frame of concern is 11AM-6PM Thursday.

Low clouds will continue to surge northward through the overnight as strong southerly low-level flow continues to transport rich Gulf moisture over the region ahead of a rapidly-progressing mid- level vorticity maxima currently positioned over southwest Arizona. Visibilities will start to reduce across North and Central Texas after 2-3 AM as mist/drizzle develops beneath the 5-6 kft deep cloud deck. Scattered warm-advection driven rain showers, and possibly a few elevated thunderstorms, are also expected to develop later tonight into Thursday morning primarily east of the I-35 corridor.

Synoptic-scale forcing for ascent will increase during the day over the region as the aforementioned trough axis slides over the Texas Panhandle and a 45-50 kt low-level jet shifts over the 1.3"-1.6" PWAT airmass located generally along/east of the I-35 corridor. This will lead to an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage primarily along/east of the I-35 corridor late Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. Impressive wind fields noted by ~50-60 kts effective bulk shear and ~200-300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH would support supercellular storm structures capable of producing all modes of severe weather if there is sufficient available surface-based instability. Widespread cloud cover and morning precipitation may inhibit destabilization and model soundings continue to suggest rather unimpressive low-level lapse rates (nearly moist-adiabatic) across the region. This would suggest that thunderstorms may struggle to become surface-based. If moisture return increases and stronger heating occurs during the day, the potential for a couple surface-based severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind gusts will increase Thursday afternoon generally south of the Highway 84 corridor in our Brazos Valley counties. Although the best potential for surface-based convection looks to remain just south of our CWA further into Southeast Texas where greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates look to reside. Further north into portions of North Texas, there will be sufficient deep-layer wind shear and elevated instability for a few stronger cells to produce up to 1" hail through Thursday evening.

Precipitation will begin to exit to our east and cloud cover will begin diminishing after 6-7PM Thursday evening as the ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave shifts out of our forecast area and drier air pushes in from the west with the arrival of a cold front. A cooler airmass will begin to filter over North and Central Texas Thursday night with overnight lows in the 40s across much of the area, dropping into the upper 30s northwest of the DFW Metroplex.

Langfeld

LONG TERM
/Issued 204 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ /Friday Through Early Next Week/

By Friday morning, North and Central Texas will be situated between a pair of shortwave troughs embedded in the prevailing southwesterly flow aloft. The modified/post-frontal airmass behind the leading shortwave, which will be moving across the Ohio Valley, will not have much time to recover ahead of the next shortwave. This should allow this secondary disturbance to lift into the Central Plains generally unnoticed on Friday. The first day of December is shaping up to be the coolest day of the extended period in many areas with highs topping out in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

On Saturday, another shortwave trough will pass over the Rockies and quickly advance across the Central and Southern Plains.
Weekend rain chances will likely remain closely tied to the stalled remnants of Friday's cold front which guidance has shown may be clinging to the coast or settled just offshore. With the shortwave trough passing well to our north and a lack of boundary layer moisture, North and Central Texas looks to remain rain-free through the weekend. As surface winds veer to the west-southwest, downslope warming will result in afternoon temperatures climbing quickly into the 60s and lower 70s both Saturday and Sunday.

By Sunday night or Monday morning, another weak cold front should sag southeastward through the region scouring out the lingering vestiges of boundary layer moisture. Mid-level ridging over the Rockies and Intermountain West will keep mild and dry northwesterly flow in place across the Southern Plains through at least the middle of next week. Temperatures are expected to hover near the climatological mean with highs in the 60s and lows in the mid 30s/40s.

12

AVIATION
/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/

VFR cigs at 3500-4500 ft will prevail for the next couple of hours before the arrival of MVFR cigs after ~07Z-08Z and IFR cigs after ~11Z-12Z. Vsby reductions are also likely as widespread mist/drizzle develops beneath this cloud deck generally after 08Z tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across portions of North and Central TX later tonight into Thursday, primarily east of the I-35 corridor. More widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. The best window for thunderstorm impacts at the D10 terminals continues to fall in that 15Z-21Z Thursday time frame, possibly an hour or two earlier at KACT. There is also a 40% chance that cigs drop to LIFR status during this time frame and may need an inclusion in a future TAF update. Precipitation will move east of the TAF sites after 21Z-22Z with cigs starting to improve generally after 01Z-02Z Friday.

Langfeld


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 45 60 43 69 / 80 10 0 0 0 Waco 68 48 62 43 69 / 80 5 0 0 5 Paris 59 46 58 38 64 / 100 80 0 0 5 Denton 62 40 59 38 68 / 80 10 0 0 0 McKinney 62 43 58 39 66 / 90 30 0 0 0 Dallas 64 45 60 43 68 / 80 20 0 0 0 Terrell 63 46 58 40 65 / 90 40 0 0 5 Corsicana 66 51 62 44 68 / 90 30 0 5 10 Temple 71 47 65 43 72 / 70 5 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 67 40 61 41 72 / 60 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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