Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Princeton, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A strong cold front will sweep south through North and Central Texas today, replacing the current unseasonably warm airmass with a much colder, very windy, and much drier post-frontal airmass.
The large scale pattern remains straightforward, with a vigorous trough ejecting through the Central Plains and strong pressure rises spreading south behind the front. This setup will support a rapid increase in north winds immediately behind the boundary, along with a sharp drop in temperatures and a corridor of critical fire weather conditions near and west of I-35. While most of the forecast area will remain dry, there will also be a narrow window for a few showers or storms to develop across our far eastern counties before the front overtakes the warm, unstable air and pushes the convective threat east of the area. In other words, Sunday will begin feeling more like a breezy spring day, but it will not end that way.

Cold Front/Temperatures...
The front and strongest post-frontal winds should reach Graham and Sherman areas between 10 AM and noon, then progress into the DFW Metroplex and nearby portions of North Texas between noon and 2 PM. Farther south and east toward Terrell and Waco, the most likely arrival window is between 2 PM and 4 PM, with the far southern and southeastern parts of the forecast area seeing the strongest winds arrive between 4 PM and 6 PM. This progression will disrupt the usual diurnal temperature trend, so many locations will likely observe their high temperatures during the late morning or early afternoon before readings fall steadily through the rest of the day. Areas across North Texas will see the most pronounced drop, while Central Texas may hold onto warmth a bit longer before the colder air arrives late in the afternoon and evening.

Winds...
Non-thunderstorm winds will be the dominant impact for most of the area. Behind the front, a rapid increase in north winds is expected with sustained speeds generally between 25 to 35 mph and peak gusts of 40 to 50 mph. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the entire forecast area through 1 AM Monday, and this still looks well justified given the expected strength and duration of the post-frontal wind field. Ensemble guidance continues to support widespread advisory level winds, though a few spots across the northwestern half of the area may briefly overperform if post- frontal mixing taps into stronger momentum just above the surface.
While gusts above 50 mph are not expected to be widespread, they cannot be ruled out entirely in a few locations during the first few hours behind the boundary when pressure rises and cold advection will be strongest. These winds will create difficult travel for high-profile vehicles, especially on east-west roads and for northbound traffic. Additionally, these winds will blow around unsecured outdoor furniture, decorations, and trash cans.
Anything lightweight left outdoors today should be secured before the front arrives.

Fire Weather...
In the wake of the front, very strong non-thunderstorm winds will combine with relative humidity dropping into the 15 to 25 percent range. Despite recent rainfall, fuels remain receptive enough to support rapid fire spread, so any ignition in this environment could become difficult to control quickly. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for areas along and west of the I-35 corridor through 9 PM. Farther east, higher humidity and low storm chances should temper the fire weather threat somewhat, but the wind shift and drying trend will still be noticeable as the front pushes through. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged regionwide today.

A low-end but non-zero severe threat will also exist across our far eastern counties this afternoon where a narrow ribbon of better moisture may overlap the frontal lift for a short period of time. Most of the forecast area should remain dry, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out near the eastern fringe of the CWA before convection is undercut by the front and shifts into East Texas. Damaging winds would be the primary concern with any storm that develops, though overall storm coverage should remain limited. By Sunday night, the convective threat will have ended, but the post-frontal impacts will continue as strong north winds persist and temperatures continue to fall. Lows by daybreak Monday will drop into the upper 20s and 30s, and with sustained winds still around 10 to 20 mph and higher gusts, wind chills in the teens and 20s appear likely. The abruptness of the change from Sunday morning to Monday morning will be one of the more notable aspects of this forecast.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

By Monday morning, North and Central Texas will be on the back side of the late weekend system though the impacts will continue to linger through the afternoon. Although winds should be lower than Sunday afternoon, it will remain breezy with north winds around 10 to 20 mph and occasional gusts to near 25 mph through much of the day. Continued cold advection will lead to a cold start with afternoon highs only reaching the 40s and 50s despite abundant sunshine. Wind chills in the teens and 20s early Monday will gradually improve through the day, but Monday will still feel much more like winter than mid March. Any lingering fire weather concern should be lower than Sunday, though dry air and breezy north winds may still support localized elevated fire weather conditions.

Monday night into Tuesday morning will likely be the coldest temperatures of the extended forecast as winds gradually ease and high pressures settles over the region. After that, the broader pattern becomes much quieter as the upper trough pulls away and ridging begins to build over the Southern Plains. Southerly return flow should return by Tuesday allowing temperatures to quickly rebound into the 70s and 80s by midweek with widespread highs in the 90s moving in just in time for the weekend. If the current forecast verifies a few daily temperature records may be in danger. Dry weather is expected to prevail through the end of the period with no meaningful precipitation signal at this time.

Even though the long term turns quieter quickly, fire weather concerns may not disappear entirely. The combination of warming temperatures, dry fuels, and periodic breezy southerly flow later in the week may allow elevated fire weather conditions to reemerge in parts of the area, especially west of I-35 where deeper mixing tends to dry the boundary layer more efficiently. For now, the main message is that the most impactful weather ends in stages rather than all at once: the strongest winds diminish Sunday night, but the cold and breezy conditions will still be with us through Monday before a quieter and much warmer pattern returns later in the week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

MVFR ceilings around 1.5-2 kft will continue at all TAF sites through mid morning before lifting and scattering from west to east by 14-15Z. South winds remain strong early this morning, and while the more frequent 30+ kt gusts associated with the strengthening low-level jet have eased some over the last hour, sustained winds near 15-20 kt will persist until boundary layer mixing increases again and gust frequency picks back up by late morning. Winds will veer to the south-southwest and then west ahead of the approaching cold front, with a brief period of minor crosswind impacts between 17-19Z. The front should move through the Metroplex around 19Z and Waco near 20Z, bringing an abrupt shift to strong north-northwest winds with sustained speeds around 30 kt and gusts near 40 kt through the afternoon and evening.
Winds will ease some overnight, but gusty north winds will continue through the end of the TAF period.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 34 52 35 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 86 38 52 33 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 75 30 47 28 / 20 0 0 0 Denton 76 28 51 31 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 78 32 51 31 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 82 36 53 35 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 80 33 51 30 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 83 36 54 33 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 88 36 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 78 30 53 31 / 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>121-123-129>134-141>146.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091-092-100>103-115>119-129>134-141>145-156>160-174.

Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Monday for TXZ122-135-147-148-156>162-174-175.