Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Paradise Valley, AZ

DISCUSSION
Objective 500 mb streamline analysis shows quasi-zonal flow over the Desert Southwest, a clipper system moving through the Dakotas and a secondary trough axis behind the clipper system starting to dig into northern Nevada and Utah. The aforementioned clipper system and secondary trough have allowed heights aloft to relax a little bit which will lead to temperatures a couple degrees cooler today than what we saw yesterday. This afternoon temperatures are forecasted to top out in the low-to-mid 70s across the lower deserts and in the mid 60s across the higher terrain areas.

Heading into this afternoon and evening the secondary trough will continue to dig into the Four Corners Region sending a dry cold front through our region. This will lead to breezy to locally windy conditions across the area this evening through tomorrow morning, with the strongest winds expected in southeastern California and along the Lower Colorado River Valley. The strongest winds will occur during the overnight hours and thus will make it difficult for them to mix down to the desert floor and thus only wind gusts of 25- 35 mph are expected across the lower elevations. Wind gusts up around 40-45 mph will be possible (60-90%) for the higher elevations/ridgetops of southeastern California (e.g., the Chocolate Mountains). In addition to the breezy and windy conditions the cold front will also usher in cooler and much drier air (PWATS near 0.1"). This will allow for a brief cool down on Tuesday with afternoon high temperatures forecasted to be near/slightly above normal (mid 60s across the lower deserts and 50s for the higher terrain areas). Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning of the week thanks to the combination of clear skies and the post-frontal cooler and much drier air. Wednesday morning low temperatures are forecasted to drop into the 30s and low 40s with the typical cooler more rural areas possibly seeing temperatures dip into the upper 20s. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Wednesday morning for the Lower Colorado River Valley, portions of northwest Pinal County, particularly the Casa Grande and Arizona City areas, and the Globe/Miami and San Carlos areas.
The NBM now gives a 60-100% chance of these areas at least reaching the freezing mark. The Arizona City and San Carlos communities have a chance of seeing a hard freeze as they are currently forecasted to see temperatures in the 26-28 degree range. For folks in the communities with a Freeze Watch, make sure to practice the 4 P's; protect people, pets, pipes, and plants from the cold, Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Ridging will quickly build back in over western CONUS on Wednesday resulting in temperatures going back above normal. This ridge won't be as strong thanks to a couple troughs moving into the Pacific Northwest by the end of the workweek and next weekend. Although these troughs won't relax the heights aloft enough to see our temperatures cool to near normal, it will keep temperatures only around 3-6 degrees above normal rather than around the 10 degrees above normal that we saw last week. Dry conditions persist through next weekend.

AVIATION
Updated at 0530Z.
South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns are anticipated throughout the forecast period. Winds will continue to follow diurnal patterns with a west shift expected by tomorrow afternoon. Speeds are expected to remain aob 10 kts. High clouds will clear through tonight.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: KIPL will continue light VRB winds, during which low-medium confidence in visibility dropping aoa 3SM between 12Z-16Z with potential (50%) for mist. KBLH will continue VRB winds before seeing speeds aob 18kts by 19Z with gusts aoa 25kts. Both terminals high clouds will clear by morning with northerly winds by 19Z-21Z.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry conditions will continue through at least the next week.
Above normal temperatures continue today, with a slight cool down to near normal tomorrow before rebounding back to above for latter half of the workweek. This evening through tomorrow morning breezy to locally windy conditions will develop across the western districts and the higher terrain areas in the eastern districts. The highest wind gusts (25-35 mph for the lower elevations and 40-45 mph along the ridgetops) are expected overnight Monday in southeastern California and along the Lower Colorado River Valley. Some residual breezy conditions can be expected region wide Tuesday afternoon. Light winds with some occasional afternoon gusts into the teens can be expected on Wednesday. MinRHs will be in the teens across SE CA and SW AZ and in the 20s across south- central AZ today. Much drier air moves in tomorrow with minRHS dropping to 5-10% across the region.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for AZZ530-553-560-562.

CA...Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for CAZ569.