UPDATE
No big changes with the latest update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
An unusual late July cold front is expected to move south through the area later today and tonight as an upper trough moves offshore allowing surface high pressure to build from the north. Expect some showers and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder prior to the frontal passage, with the best chance of rain near the coast, especially in SC where the best moisture convergence will hang on the longest. Temps should stay below normal with highs today generally in the mid 80s and lows tonight mostly in the mid to upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Some atypically low dewpoints in place on Sunday brought in on NE winds caused by both high pressure building post-FROPA and strengthening low off MidAtlantic Coast. Expect full sunshine and seasonable temperatures but also a cooler "feel" on account of the low dewpoints/RH values. As winds turn more southerly on Monday the dewpoints will creep up but nowhere near the values experienced for most of July. Given the weakness of the return flow the shortwaves traversing the area Monday will be hard-pressed to generate much in the way of precipitation.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Surface and low level return flow strengthen just a bit on Tuesday while the weak mid level trough overhead becomes slightly more vort- laden in nature. There won't be any thermal advection to speak of but as dewpoints rise the humidity will increase and nighttime lows will have a higher ceiling. Shower and storm coverage will be on the rise and there will only be a minor diurnal trend as at least shallow convection should linger overnight due to continued PVA aloft. Wednesday and Thursday will feature a large and amplifying ridge over the Western U.S. while the eastern trough weakens. This could cause a hard-to-time reversion of convection back to a diurnal cycle as we lose most of our PVA. Offsetting this is a continued moist advection into the Southeast leading to more instability and lowered LCL heights. The end result will be a late period string of seasonable temperatures and a pretty normal distribution of thunderstorms that will favor the afternoon and evening hours as normal for the time of year.

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
12Z TAFS: Medium confidence through about 18Z and high confidence thereafter. A cold front remains north of the area but should make some progress southward into SE NC and NE SC later today and especially tonight bringing drier air with it. Prior to the frontal passage though there will be a risk for low clouds, fog and showers early this morning. Low clouds should slowly lift and dissipate after sunrise with VFR conditions likely by early afternoon. Mainly IFR ceilings will improve to MVFR after daybreak from north to south. Decent radiational cooling conditions and the wet ground from recent rainfall could lead to some fog inland late tonight.

Extended Outlook...VFR likely Sunday into Monday with a chance for restrictions starting inland Monday afternoon due to showers and possible storms. Better chance for restrictions from showers/storms/low clouds starting Tuesday.

MARINE
Through Tonight...A rather unusual late July cold frontal passage is expected later today and tonight. This will bring shifting winds to the north which will increase into the afternoon, although likely staying below Small Craft Advisory levels (25 kt). Significant wave heights should stay at or below 4 ft, a mix of northeasterly wind waves and southeasterly swells which will make it a bit rough.

Sunday through Wednesday night... Sunday brings NE winds behind cold frontal passage but veering may start as soon as Sunday night as the post-frontal high weakens. The NE wind waves though small will still be clashing a bit with SE swell for the occasional steep wave face.
A return of more typical southerly winds is slated for Monday though just barely as speeds should be capped at 10 knots by such a weak gradient as the west atlantic high doesn't seem to want to push into the area much. This may hold true for the entire period bringing quiet midweek marine conditions.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.