Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Calabash, NC

UPDATE
No major changes were made to the public/marine forecasts with the latest update. Earlier showers/storms across SE NC and NE SC have dissipated but watching more hefty showers/storms to the north across east-central NC along a weak frontal boundary which could brush far northern portions of the CWA over the next several hours, especially closer to the NC Sandhills. However, the risk for any severe weather or flash flooding appears very low due to decreasing instability.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A warm humid air mass will remain in place through the forecast period and could be acted upon by small scale boundaries like the sea breeze and outflow boundaries. Additionally, models indicate that weak shortwave troughs may affect the area this afternoon and evening and again Monday. All in all, expect mainly diurnally driven showers and storms of isolated to scattered coverage. Lows tonight will fall to the lower to middle 70s with highs Monday in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The mid-level pattern continues to show anticyclonic flow around the high-pressure ridge, bringing in deep tropical moisture with precipitation of around 2 inches throughout the period. To the north, the shortwave trough over Kentucky on Monday will have weakened over the Ohio River Valley as the Bermuda High ridge holds over the area. At the surface, a stationary front over Northeast North Carolina will shift northward into the Mid- Atlantic by the end of Tuesday night.
Instabilities are expected to be around 1000-1500 J/kg along the coast and just offshore during the night. On Tuesday afternoon, the CAPE values will reach 2000-2500 J/Kg. Therefore, there is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms each night along the immediate coast, and during the day on Tuesday showers and thunderstorms are likely expected again.

Mid-70s temperatures are expected each night, with highs of around 90 on Monday. Heat indices are expected to range between 100 and 103 degrees.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
At 500 mb, the high-pressure ridge continues from Bermuda to the Florida Peninsula. On Wednesday, a trough over the upper plains will deepen and move to the east coast late Thursday into Friday. High pressure will be established at the surface but will give way to a frontal boundary crossing the area on Friday and moving south of the forecast area on Tuesday. Less coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected Wednesday into Sunday.

High pressure builds over the area, so temperatures will reach the mid-90s on Wednesday and Thursday. As the front passes across the region, the highs will dip into the lower 90s and rebound to the mid- 90s again by Sunday. With high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and dew points in the 73 to 75- degree range, heat indices will range from 101 to 105.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
There is high confidence for VFR conditions to continue at the coastal airports KILM, KCRE, and KMYR through at least 16z today. Inland there is a low chance of MVFR to IFR stratus ceilings developing at KFLO around 10z this morning and a moderate potential at KLBT. If low clouds form they should mix out from below between 13-14z.

The next item of concern is daytime thunderstorm development.
Much like yesterday there is a disconnect between very wet synoptic models and much drier high-res models. For KLBT I'll use a TEMPO group to indicate a moderate potential for thunderstorm impacts between 19-23z. Elsewhere I'll use PROB30 groups to indicate a somewhat lower potential for weather impacts during the afternoon and evening hours. In general the lowest potential for impacts today will be at KFLO and the highest potential at KLBT followed by KILM.

Extended Outlook...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will bring brief MVFR/IFR visibility each day through Thursday. There is also a low potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings affecting inland airports early each morning, mainly 06z-12z.

MARINE
Through Monday...S to SW winds of 10 to 15 KT are expected through the period with seas of 2 to 4 FT.

Monday night through Saturday, the Bermuda high-pressure axis will remain south of the coastal waters. This pressure pattern will provide for southwest winds of 15 knots, with a slight increase to around 20 knots Friday as a cold front approaches the waters. Seas are expected to remain in the 3 to 4-foot range, with 4 to 5 feet possible late Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the waters daily, with more widespread coverage Monday night and Tuesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.