Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Calabash, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:40PM Saturday January 25, 2020 2:26 PM EST (19:26 UTC) Moonrise 7:56AMMoonset 6:26PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1113 Am Est Sat Jan 25 2020
This afternoon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, then 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot, then 2 ft.
AMZ200 1113 Am Est Sat Jan 25 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will continue to build in from the west through this weekend, allowing for improving marine conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Calabash, NC
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location: 33.86, -78.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 251720 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1240 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. Dry high pressure will continue to build into the area through the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures will turn cooler tonight as cold air filters in. Generally fair and dry this upcoming week, with exception of shower chances Monday and again mid week, as several disturbances track overhead. Temperatures will run close to normal for late January this upcoming week.

UPDATE. Offshore winds up to 15 kts have allowed seas to drop below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. SCA was expired for AMZ254-256 and cancelled for AMZ250-252.

Aside from minor adjustments, forecast remains on track for a dry afternoon with temps in the 50s to lower 60s with sunshine and downslope flow offsetting a bit of CAA through today. Temps will be a little cooler well inland especially in a few cloudy spots mainly west of I-95.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Rain will slide farther offshore with the front over the next few hours, allowing for a dry daytime period today alongside decreasing clouds and high temps in the upr 50s/lwr 60s.

Continued dry into tonight and Sun as sfc high pressure builds in from the west. Expect light west winds under a partly/mostly sunny sky and temps maxing out in the mid/upr 50s Sun. Low temps tonight in the mid/upr 30s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. The short term and the long term forecast will be very active as several mid and upper-level disturbances cross the southeast United States. The first shortwave will move from the Upper Plains to the Carolinas on Monday and a 150-knot jet streak will be coincident with this wave on Monday. The precipitable water will increase to 0.75" to 1.00" which is around the 75% moving average for the last half of January, but the QPF from the system will be low with less than 0.10" forecasted. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble both show the QPF chances of greater than 0.10" are between 30% and 50% over northeast South Carolina and less in southeast North Carolina.

Low Temperatures: Sunday Night: Upper 30s inland and lower 40s at the beaches. Monday Night: Middle 30s inland and the upper 30s at the beaches.

High Temperatures: Monday: 54°F to 58°F.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The extended forecast will continue with an active sub- tropical jet stream with a weak disturbance passing across the Carolina Wednesday into Thursday. The deterministic GFS and ECMWF are both still inconsistent with each other and even their ensembles. The models depict possible showers Wednesday into Thursday but with low confidence in timing stayed with lower PoP chances. The models continue to develop a deep cutoff low near the Big Bend area of Texas by Thursday night. At this point, the ECMWF solutions and the GFS solutions diverge through the remainder of the forecast period. Both develop an upper-level low that moves across south Texas, and a surface low developing over the eastern gulf. The ECMWF develops a single surface low, similar to a Miller Type A configuration while the GFS has modified Miller Type B pattern with an inland low and a coastal low forming off Cape Hatteras. As one can deduce, the model confidence on the weekend storm is low. Even with these systems and confidence, the temperatures are expected to be near normal for this time of the year.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Blanket of stratus reached far enough east before transitioning to strato cu field. These clouds produced some brief MVFR-IFR ceilings at FLO. This ceiling will lift to VFR with full VFR expected this TAF cycle all other terminals. WSW winds today 6-10 kt, a few gusts to 18 kt in afternoon. No VSBY restrictions anticipated.

Extended Outlook . VFR Sunday, some restrictions are possible Monday and Wed as a couple of weak disturbances impact area with potential for ISO to SCT rain showers, with brief MVFR cigs or VSBYs possible.

MARINE. Seas will slowly subside through the day as high pressure builds in with a subsiding offshore flow over the waters, 10-15 kt winds this aftn and tonight becoming just ~10 kt for Sun, with seas then down to 2-4 ft as the easterly swell diminishes.

Sunday Night through Wednesday: High pressure will build over waters with a lee-side trough in the western Carolinas. This pattern will veer the winds overtime from the southwest to northwest. Wind speeds will be less than 15 knots and seas through this period are expected at 3 to 4 feet Sunday Night and slowly drop to 2 to 3 feet Monday into Tuesday and 1 to 2 feet on Wednesday. Even with mainly offshore flow, the Wave Watch 3 produces a 10-second easterly swell of 2 to 3 foot Monday and slowly diminish this easterly swell to 1 to 2 feet by Wednesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . RGZ NEAR TERM . MAS SHORT TERM . RH LONG TERM . RH AVIATION . 08 MARINE . MAS/RH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 5 mi78 min S 14 G 21 53°F 53°F1014.2 hPa
41119 5 mi96 min 53°F3 ft
SSBN7 5 mi34 min 2 ft
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 23 mi56 min 59°F
41108 31 mi56 min 54°F4 ft
WLON7 41 mi56 min 51°F1012.5 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi56 min SW 11 G 13 53°F1012 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 48 mi101 min W 11 59°F 1014 hPa41°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi78 min SW 12 G 18 54°F 53°F1013.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 49 mi46 min 53°F4 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC9 mi33 minWSW 1210.00 miFair62°F41°F46%1013 hPa
Myrtle Beach International Airport, SC22 mi30 minW 1310.00 miFair61°F39°F46%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCRE

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE6SE8
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SE7SE9SE7SE9S8S3S8S8W6W6W5NW5W5CalmCalmW6W6W12
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1 day agoN6N7N5NE6NE5NE6NE5NE5NE5NE6NE7NE7NE7NE7NE8NE8NE7NE5NE7E10E10E10E9
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2 days agoN12
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--N7N6N6N8NE10N9NE11NE10NE12NE10N9N7NE5N5N8N6N7N8N7NE10NE9NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Dunn Sound, Little River Inlet, South Carolina
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Dunn Sound
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:10 AM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:14 AM EST     5.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:48 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:26 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:22 PM EST     4.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.1-0.3-012.33.54.554.94.33.32.10.90.1-00.51.62.73.64.14.13.62.7

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach Airport, South Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.