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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1007 Am Est Wed Dec 6 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Rest of today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon and evening, then becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft. Showers likely through the day. A chance of showers through the night.

AMZ200 1007 Am Est Wed Dec 6 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure centered near the ozarks will build eastward with gusty northwest winds today. Improving weather is expected Thursday and Friday as the high moves across the carolinas. Winds and rain chances should increase dramatically Sunday with the arrival of the next front.

FXUS62 KILM 061507 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1007 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather and breezy northwesterly winds are expected today.
High pressure will bring lighter winds and a warming trend Thursday through Saturday. Winds and rain chances should increase dramatically Sunday with the arrival of the next front.
Cooler and drier weather will arrive once again early next week.

UPDATE
No significant changes as of 10 AM EST. A tweak to cloud cover was necessary due to subsidence over eastern NC keeping coverage to an isolated area. Increased gusts slightly over eastern NC and lower dew points a degree or two as a combination of dry air advection and mixing brings lower RH this afternoon.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Deepening low pressure east of the Outer Banks should race away from the coast today. A cold front easily discernible by a wind discontinuity should move off the coast around sunrise this morning, turning surface winds northwesterly. Wind gusts to 25-30 mph are expected to develop as 4500-6000 feet of vertical mixing taps into stronger flow aloft.

An impressive shortwave will move across the eastern Carolinas, exiting the coast early this afternoon. 500 mb temps should bottom out around -25C with tropopause heights briefly plunging to near 600 mb along the centerline of the trough. Despite dewpoints in the 30s, steep lapse rates beneath this cold air should trigger the development of scattered cumulus or altocumulus, most numerous across southeastern North Carolina late this morning through early this afternoon. It's possible a few sprinkles could reach the ground near and north of Wilmington, but no PoPs are included in the forecast. Forecast highs follow tightly clustered models all generally in the mid 50s.

Winds should quickly die away at sunset as the surface decouples from the stronger winds aloft. Temperatures will fall quickly through the 40s, then into the 30s before midnight.
Forecast lows are around 30 inland, and slightly warmer along the coast. Traditional cold spots (pocosins and peatland swamps)
should fall into the 20s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure and upper ridging will maintain dry, quiet weather for the end of the week. Highs Thursday in the low to mid 50s with clear skies as center of high pressure moves overhead. Low temps Thursday night around 35, though ideal radiational cooling conditions may drop traditional cold spots to below freezing. High pressure and upper ridge axis shifts offshore on Friday allowing for weak WAA to begin, kicking off a warming trend heading into next weekend. High temps Friday slightly above normal in the low 60s, with increasing clouds later in the day as weak upper impulses move across from the southwest. Low temps Friday night in the low to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WAA continues Saturday with high temps around 70F. Shallow isentropic lift will lead to some clouds, with mid level dry air hindering anything more than that. More interesting weather is in store for Sunday, as a strong 500mb trough lifts across the Carolinas late in the day and a cold front at the surface approaches. Ahead of these features, an impressive LLJ is forecasted to move over the East Coast with 40 kts at 3000ft and 50 kts and 5000ft Sunday afternoon. Still thinking abundant cloud cover will aid in a very shallow mix layer, though even that can easily mix down 30 kt (35 mph) winds during the day Sunday, but will have to keep an eye on potential for deeper mixing of stronger winds. Increased rain chances early Sunday through the day ahead of the front, with only slight thunder chances as instability still appears to be pretty limited.

Cold front forecasted to move across Sunday night, bringing an end to strong winds and rain. High pressure behind the front will bring back dry weather for the start of next week along with slightly below normal temperatures.

AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions should continue over the next 24 hours. The main aviation weather concern will be the development of gusty northwest winds between 14-16z. Surface wind gusts of 25 knots are expected to last through the afternoon hours, but should die away quickly at sunset. Cumulus/altocumulus clouds between 5000-12000 feet AGL may develop at times through mid afternoon, but with no impacts expected.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR ceilings should develop Saturday and Sunday due to an approaching cold front.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Low pressure just off the Outer Banks is intensifying as it zips northeastward and away from the coast. A cold front behind this low is moving southeastward and should be offshore by daybreak. Behind this front northwesterly winds should increase to 15-25 knots and hold there through this evening.

The latest model blends suggest wind speeds are increasingly the quickest across South Carolina where the Small Craft Advisory is already in effect. Due to a slower anticipated onset of stronger offshore winds across the North Carolina coastal waters, I've delayed the beginning of the Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM there. Wind speeds should gradually diminish overnight and the end of the advisory is left unchanged at midnight.

Seas currently 2-3 feet should quickly increase to 4 feet beyond 10 miles from shore this morning. Dominant wave periods will remain short, around 4 seconds, in the stiff offshore winds.

Thursday through Sunday...High pressure overhead Thursday will move offshore Friday, maintaining benign marine conditions for the end of the week. Winds generally 10 kts or less Thursday through Friday, shifting from northwesterly to southwesterly, with seas around 1-2 ft, combination of wind chop and a weakening ENE swell. Southerly winds and seas begin to slowly increase on Saturday ahead of the next system, before increasing quickly Saturday night into Sunday as a strong LLJ moves over the area. Hazardous marine conditions likely Sunday, with current forecast of S winds 20-25 kts gusts 30-35 kts and seas 6-8 ft Sunday afternoon and evening. Cold front expected to move across the local waters Sunday night, with elevated winds and seas slowly improving.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ250-252.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ254-256.

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Dunn Sound
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Wed -- 12:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:09 AM EST     3.99 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:42 AM EST     1.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:23 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:17 PM EST     4.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:11 PM EST     0.83 feet Low Tide
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Dunn Sound, Little River Inlet, South Carolina, Tide feet

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