Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 3:06 PM   Moonset 3:40 AM

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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1259 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Rest of tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Sat - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers.Mon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Mon night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.Tue - NE winds 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Tue night - S winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 1259 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - A cold front will drop into the area Friday and stall for the weekend. High pressure will build into the area next week.

FXUS62 KILM 190529 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 129 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Rain chances will increase on Friday as a cold front moves across the area. The front stalls in the area for the weekend, maintaining elevated rain chances. High pressure next week leads to drying conditions once more, with a gradual warming trend.

UPDATE
Observations outside of the area tonight are showing some ground fog around with a cloud shield to our north associated with the incoming cold front. Minor changes made to temps/cloud cover overnight. Updated 06Z aviation discussion below.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
The above normal temperatures will continue tonight. A back door cold front will sink about half way across the area overnight. As this boundary weakens it will lift back to the north very slightly stalling in the Cape Fear region. Later Friday another cold front will approach from the west while some paltry vorticity maxima approach. Forecast soundings show rapid moistening through a deep layer as ample instability develops. SPC highlighting the area for Marginal Risk. Given the instability and healthy veering with height could see the need for a higher outlook level in future forecasts or at least some small tornado probs. Overall storm coverage may be low however given the weakness of the mid level lift.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Some of the low-level vorticity maxima (such that it is) will continue to move through the area Friday evening, which will keep up some of the rain chances. Should have less instability from the loss of daytime heating, but it still lingers around regardless, and there are still 30-40kts of bulk shear to play with. It's possible to capture a strong storm inland, particularly with damaging winds hitting the surface (confidence is still pretty meager). Rain chances taper off during the overnight hours as the surface front pushes offshore. Lows in the lower 60s.

Saturday, the front stalls offshore, while weak low pressure along the front may bring a shower or thunderstorm inland. Warm and nearly muggy, with highs in the lower 80s. Northwesterly flow brings in slightly cooler air...lows Saturday night in the mid- to-upper 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Sunday, the front pushes further offshore, but a strong surface low forms along the Georgia-South Carolina coast and pushes northeastward. This brings a much better shot at showers and a couple of thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night, particularly closer to the coast. Clouds and rain, combined with the cooler low-level flow out of the ENE, will bring mild highs in the mid-to-upper 60s.
Lows Sunday night in the lower 50s.

Old frontal boundary and associated surface low pressure finally pushes out of the area for good Monday afternoon. Cooler air left in the wake, with highs Monday in the mid 60s, and lows Monday night in the mid-to-upper 40s inland, near 50 at the coast. A few coastal showers may remain Monday morning, but should push offshore by the afternoon. Cloud ceilings lift and gradually clear out.

High pressure Tuesday brings clear skies and moderating temperatures.
Highs in the low-to-mid 70s, lows in the lower 50s.

Another frontal system looks to move through the area Wednesday and Thursday, but for now, it looks like a pretty dry front, with the majority of the forcing well to the north. Forecast guidance looks strangely consistent on this idea so far out, but I would maintain a healthy skepticism. Temperatures continue to warm up to the lower 80s Wednesday, with a modest cooldown after the frontal passage by Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Primarily VFR expected through the 06Z TAF period. Cirrus is passing over the area currently, primarily NE SC, with a IFR cloud deck located to our NE with the incoming cold front.
Winds will be light and variable with a bit of an easterly component as the front stalls through our area around daybreak.
This front will lift back north with winds becoming more southerly by the afternoon along scattered showers/storms.

Extended Outlook... Restrictions possible through the period due to daily shower chances from a stalled front. High pressure building in late Mon into Tues should return dominant VFR.

MARINE
Through Friday...Backdoor cold front veers the winds tonight over mainly northwestern zones. This front will then lift back to the north Friday allowing SW flow to return area-wide albeit gradually.
The small wind chop will accompany a minor high pressure-induced SE swell.

Friday Night through Tuesday...SSW winds at 5-10kts Friday night become more variable Saturday and Saturday night, due to a stalled front over the waters. Pressure gradient increases Sunday as the front slowly moves further offshore. Northeasterly winds kick up to 15kts, with gusts up to 20kts. Seas at 2-3ft increase to northeasterly wind waves at 3-4ft. By Monday and most of Tuesday, winds vary slightly between NE and NNE, and a few gusts may try to reach up to 25kts, and a few waves may get up to 4-5ft out 20nm from shore. Not Small Craft Advisory thresholds yet, but wouldn't be surprised if the forecast trends in that direction over the next few days. Winds decrease Tuesday and gradually veer more easterly.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Sunset Beach Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

Hog Inlet Pier
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Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:22 AM EDT     4.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:41 AM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:57 PM EDT     4.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:58 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
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