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FXUS62 KRAH 082028 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 328 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue to move offshore of the southeastern United States before a strong cold front moves across the state Sunday and Sunday night.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 145 PM Friday...

Weak high pressure is sitting along the South Carolina coast, with the center of the high having moved offshore. Low pressure is currently over the Northern Plains and will continue to move east over the next 24-30 hours near Lake Superior into Canada. A cold front extends south-southwest from the low all the way into Texas, and this front will continue to move east during the next day. High clouds will continue to stream across the region overnight, with a break in clouds likely Saturday morning before mid level clouds begin to stream in from the west Saturday afternoon. However, the forecast remains dry through Saturday afternoon. Lows will be a bit higher overnight with the cloud cover, ranging from the upper 30s to the mid 40s. Similarly, highs on Saturday will also be warmer with southwesterly flow and some partial sunshine, ranging from the mid 60s to the mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 155 PM Friday...

An upper level trough will strengthen as it moves across the Deep South and into the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday into Monday. At the surface, a low pressure system over Ontario extends a cold front down across the Great Lakes, TN/OH Valleys. At the tail end of this cold front another low pressure develops over the Gulf states, which is expected to move NE along the Appalachian Mountains Sunday before lifting over the Northeast on Monday as that cold front moves across the region late Sunday night early Monday. Expect showers to begin in the Triad as early Saturday night and continue to spread to the Coastal Plain by morning. All shower activity is expected to exit the area by early Monday morning

Widespread showers and storms are anticipated through the entire day Sunday with a chance of isolated severe storms possible through the day. After looking at latest model guidance there is weak instability but shear values are consistently strong (upwards to 40kts across the area). The best chance for severe weather would be along and east of the US1 corridor, but the entire FA should be alert for damaging wind gusts, flooding, and a isolated tornado as we under a Marginal Threat for severe weather. Wind gusts are expected to be 20 to 25 mph in the morning before picking up to 25 to 30 mph as the front moves across the region late Sunday night. Be sure that any outside holiday decor is extra secure.

Flooding is another concern for Sunday as WPC highlights much of the Mid-Atlantic region. With the lack of instability, the there should be enough forcing from the mid level trough to generate heavier showers and storms, thus higher rainfall rates. With rainfall totals for the storm ranging from around 1 inch in the Sandhills to nearing 2 inches in the Northern Piedmont, flash flooding could be possible especially in low lying and urban areas with poor drainage.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 325 PM Friday...

Dry weather and mostly clear skies will prevail through the extended period under the influence of surface high pressure and W/NW flow aloft.

A continued strong pressure gradient between the deepening surface low departing New England and high pressure to our W/SW will result in strong NW winds Monday morning and early afternoon behind the cold frontal passage, gusting up to 20-30 mph. So much cooler temperatures are in store, with highs only in the upper-40s to lower- 50s. Winds will relax Monday night as the surface high strengthens and becomes centered over the Carolinas, allowing for decent radiational cooling conditions. Lows will be mostly mid-20s to 30, but some isolated lower-20s will be possible in the coldest outlying areas.

The surface high over the Carolinas on Tuesday will get absorbed by another cool high building SE from the Upper Midwest on Wednesday.
It will remain centered over the Southern Appalachians and Mid- Atlantic while weakening on Thursday and Friday. This will bring daytime temperatures slowly moderating from slightly below normal to near normal. Highs in the upper-40s to lower-50s on Tuesday will increase slightly to lower-to-mid-50s on Wednesday/Thursday and mid- to-upper-50s on Friday. Lows will be mid-20s to lower-30s each morning with continued good radiational cooling.

AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1200 PM Friday...

TAF period: VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A ceiling of high clouds is expected through the night, with some partial clearing possible Saturday morning. Some 3000 ft AGL stratocumulus will be possible at INT/GSO around sunrise, although a ceiling is not expected. Around that time, some marginal LLWS will be possible across the same area. Although confidence in the LLWS is not high, the potential remains high enough to keep it in the forecast.

Outlook: While dry VFR conditions are expected Saturday afternoon, showers will move in from west to east Saturday night, with MVFR ceilings expanding east more quickly than precipitation. Widespread IFR conditions are expected in moderate to heavy rain Sunday and Sunday night, with gusty winds and thunderstorms also possible.
While restrictions and rain should come to an end by Monday morning, gusts up to 25 kt could continue through the day. Dry VFR conditions with wind less than 10 kt are forecast Monday night through Wednesday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Bannermans Branch
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:07 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:58 AM EST     1.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:07 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:39 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

Castle Hayne
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Fri -- 02:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:53 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:44 AM EST     1.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:08 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:25 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:53 PM EST     1.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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