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FXUS62 KRAH 110003 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 700 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will move across the region tonight. After the front passes the state, high pressure will build across the Southeast for much of the upcoming week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 715 PM Sunday...

The tornado threat has ended. Still expecting strong and potentially sporadic damaging wind gusts along and behind the cold front as it crosses the area between 00 to 09z.

Previous discussion:

Breezy winds will surface behind the front for a few hours, with NW gusts of 30 to 45 mph possible. Weakest winds are expected near the Triad this evening, with the strongest winds near the southern Coastal Plain expected around midnight.

Very cold and dry air will advect across the region from the NW behind the front. The near freezing temperatures will arrive across the Triad area at the end of the precipitation, and will create the possibility of a rain/snow mix for a few hours near the area late tonight. No snowfall accumulations are expected with surface temps remaining in the mid-30s. Precipitation will exit east out of central NC just after sunrise, with overnight lows ranging form the mid-30s NW to the low 40s SE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 255 PM Sunday...

By Monday morning, low pressure will be over eastern Massachusetts with today's cold front extending to the south. While there could be some lingering showers over coastal North Carolina, all rain should have moved east of the forecast area. Cloud cover will rapidly decrease east of Raleigh through the morning, with clear skies expected in the afternoon and continuing into the overnight hours.
The wind will gust between 15-30 mph in the morning, but drop to 10- 25 mph in the afternoon with a light wind continuing overnight.
After above normal temperatures today, Monday will have below normal temperatures, with highs ranging from the mid 40s to the low 50s.
Lighter winds and clear skies will also bring below normal temperatures for Monday night, with lows from 22-32.

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LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 255 PM Sunday...

High pressure will be over central North Carolina Tuesday morning, and the high will be reinforced from the Great Lakes through the middle of the week. There should be some high clouds Wednesday, but Tuesday and Thursday will be mostly clear. By the weekend, there is much lower confidence in the forecast. The 12Z run of the ECMWF has maintained a dry forecast through the weekend, and the 12Z run of the GFS has dried out compared to previous runs, now not bringing precipitation into central North Carolina until Sunday. Meanwhile the 12Z GEFS has been fairly consistent with its previous run, bringing precipitation into the area as early as Friday night and keeping rain in the forecast through the entire weekend. Considering the 12Z GEFS is a wet outlier, have gone with a dry forecast Friday night, only kept slight chance pops across the south on Saturday, then added chance pops to the forecast for Saturday night and Sunday.

Temperatures will yo-yo through the extended forecast, with the warmest highs a few degrees above climatology over the weekend and the coolest highs on Thursday only reaching the 40s. Thursday night looks like the coldest night with widespread lows in the 20s, and lows will be at or below freezing every night except Saturday night.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 700 PM Sunday...

A strong cold front will cross the area between 00 to 06z Monday.
LIFR to MVFR flight restrictions, lowest across the western TAF sites, will persist as intermittent showers and rain moves through the area. Rain could briefly mix with wet snow at KINT and KGSO before tapering off.

Strong post-frontal NWLY wind gusts of 25 to 40 kt are expected in a 2-3 hour period behind the cold front. Subsequent cold dry air advection will lead to clearing and a return to VFR conditions from west to east between 08 to 13z. Breezy NW wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt will diminish during the late afternoon.

Outlook: High pressure will favor VFR conditions through early to mid week.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Bannermans Branch
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Sun -- 12:52 AM EST     1.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:44 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:26 PM EST     1.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:07 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:28 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
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Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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