Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Apex, NC
March 28, 2024 6:56 PM EDT (22:56 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:05 AM Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 10:04 PM Moonset 7:36 AM |
Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
  (hide/show)  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KRAH 281946 AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 345 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
An elongated area of low pressure will move slowly northeast and away from the NC coast through tonight. The low will rapidly strengthen well off the coast on Friday, while high pressure moves across the Southeast. A weak cold front will drop into WV and VA late Sunday and then lift north late Monday. A stronger cold front will approach the region on Tuesday and move across the area on Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 345 PM Thursday...
An elongated area of surface low pressure and boundary stretch just off the coast of the Carolinas this afternoon. Central NC is sandwiched between this feature and another cold front that has just passed through the Triad, where dew points have already dropped into the 20s and 30s (compared to upper-40s to lower-50s in the east).
This front will slowly push east across central NC through this evening, accompanied by a slight wind shift from northerly to more northwesterly. With the low deepening but moving east and away from the region, and much drier air filtering in, precipitation has largely ended across central NC, other than some patchy very light rain and drizzle over the Coastal Plain which will completely end over the next few hours. Rainfall totals since yesterday ranged from around a half inch to an inch across the far western Piedmont to 1 to 2 inches in most other places. Isolated spots received as much as 2 to 3 inches along a stripe from Orange and Durham counties down to Moore and Richmond counties, according to observations and radar estimates. The Flood Watch has been cancelled, and the only remaining flooding concerns are a few gauges on the Neuse and Tar rivers which are forecast to reach minor flood stage over the next few days.
The western Piedmont is already mostly sunny, which is helping temperatures there spike into the lower-to-mid-60s. Elsewhere under mostly cloudy to overcast skies they are still in the lower-to-mid- 50s. As the potent mid/upper trough swings through this afternoon and early evening, skies will clear from west to east. Some high-res guidance is showing a few light showers/sprinkles this evening over the far NE associated with this trough, but skeptical of this given how dry it will be aloft. Winds gusting up to 15-25 mph will diminish some this evening, but a decent pressure gradient between the deepening low off the coast and high pressure building in from the Deep South will help some light NW winds linger into the overnight hours. This will prevent ideal radiational cooling despite clear skies, but the CAA will still help lows drop into the mid-30s to 40 (slightly below normal).
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 PM Thursday...
Friday and Friday night: In the wake of the exiting upper level trough, heights aloft will steadily increase across the region as a broad upper level ridge over the Central US builds eastward. At the surface, a strong pressure gradient will exist between a deepening area of low pressure tracking north off the New England coast and high pressure building east into the Deep South will yield breezy conditions. Expect frequent W-NWLY gusts of 20-30 mph, with occasional gusts as high as 30 to 35 mph, highest across northern portions of the piedmont and coastal plain counties. The brisk NW flow will also result in favorable downslope drying/mixing out of dewpoints and low-level warming. Afternoon RH values are expected to fall 25 to 35%, potentially as low as 20-25% across the NW Piedmont.
Fuels will likely be wet enough to avoid elevated fire weather conditions.
Underneath a scattered to occasionally broken diurnal cu field, highs ranging from mid 60s NE to lower 70s south.
Lows Friday night 40-45.
Saturday through Sunday night: The upper air pattern over the CONUS will undergo modest amplification over the weekend with substantial height rises noted over the SE US as the upper ridge continues to build east. Low-level SWLY flow around the surface high that will settle over the western Atlantic will yield a strong warmup through the weekend. After highs in the mid to upper 70s, Sunday highs will average 12 to 15 degrees above normal as temperatures top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Mostly dry and sunny conditions will prevail with intervals of mid and high clouds streaming across the area through much of the weekend. One possible exception could be late Sunday and into Sunday night as a frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic states could sag far enough south to support some isolated showers across the far northern counties.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 230 PM Thursday...
A subtropical ridge in place Mon from the GOM up through the Ohio Valley will shift east and off the coast by Tue morning as the positively tilted trough axis sags east. There remains some uncertainty with how this upper level pattern will evolve heading into Tues/Wed timeframe as it interacts with a northern stream trough digging central Canada into the Ohio Valley. From an ensemble approach, PWAT increases ahead of these features to around 1.25" within the deep stream of southwesterly flow through the troposphere, which is around 175% of normal for early April.
Some light rain may be possible as the mid/upper level ridge breaks down and weak disturbances ripple through the flow Mon afternoon into early Tues, but the better chance comes late Tues into early Wed. The stronger WAA and FGEN forcing along the 850mb front will be well displaced north of central NC and our area well within the warm sector. Scattered showers/storms may be possible on Tues within the warm sector, where temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low/mid 80s, with the best chances across the western Piedmont where weakening CIN and instability may be present during the afternoon.
Then a strong cold front moves through sometime between Tues night into Wed afternoon. There is still some uncertainty on timing of the fropa, which would have implication on the showers/storms and potential severe weather implication on Wed. Unfortunately, this timing uncertain is far too great to say much with any degree of confidence. Breezy to windy conditions will be possible on Thurs behind the stout cold front and tight pressure gradient in its wake as high pressure builds into the TN Valley. Temperatures will return to near normal to slightly below normal heading into late next week.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 215 PM Thursday...
24 hour TAF period: The rain has ended in the west (including INT and GSO) and largely ended at RDU and FAY, though there may be patchy very light rain or drizzle for a few more hours. Rain is still ongoing over the Coastal Plain (including RWI), but no visibility restrictions are expected given how light it is. The main aviation concern will be the MVFR to IFR ceilings that will slowly exit from west to east through the rest of this afternoon, with the exception of the NW Piedmont (including INT and GSO) which is already VFR. RDU and FAY should stay largely MVFR until later this afternoon when the low clouds finally exit, but periods of VFR before that can't be ruled out. RWI should stay MVFR to IFR until the light rain ends around 23z. Northerly winds may gust up to 15-20 kts at times for the rest of the afternoon. Skies will clear out and VFR conditions will prevail from 00z through the end of the TAF period.
The other aviation concern will be the threat of low-level wind shear, as NW winds strengthen to 35-40 kts at 2 kft this evening and overnight but diminish at the surface. The greatest threat is at the eastern terminals (RDU/FAY/RWI). This potential will end after daybreak tomorrow, as surface winds become westerly and increase again, gusting up to 15-25 kts.
Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through Monday. Gusty winds of 20-30 kts are expected from the SW on Sat. The next chance of showers/storms and sub-VFR conditions will come with a cold frontal passage on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 345 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
An elongated area of low pressure will move slowly northeast and away from the NC coast through tonight. The low will rapidly strengthen well off the coast on Friday, while high pressure moves across the Southeast. A weak cold front will drop into WV and VA late Sunday and then lift north late Monday. A stronger cold front will approach the region on Tuesday and move across the area on Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 345 PM Thursday...
An elongated area of surface low pressure and boundary stretch just off the coast of the Carolinas this afternoon. Central NC is sandwiched between this feature and another cold front that has just passed through the Triad, where dew points have already dropped into the 20s and 30s (compared to upper-40s to lower-50s in the east).
This front will slowly push east across central NC through this evening, accompanied by a slight wind shift from northerly to more northwesterly. With the low deepening but moving east and away from the region, and much drier air filtering in, precipitation has largely ended across central NC, other than some patchy very light rain and drizzle over the Coastal Plain which will completely end over the next few hours. Rainfall totals since yesterday ranged from around a half inch to an inch across the far western Piedmont to 1 to 2 inches in most other places. Isolated spots received as much as 2 to 3 inches along a stripe from Orange and Durham counties down to Moore and Richmond counties, according to observations and radar estimates. The Flood Watch has been cancelled, and the only remaining flooding concerns are a few gauges on the Neuse and Tar rivers which are forecast to reach minor flood stage over the next few days.
The western Piedmont is already mostly sunny, which is helping temperatures there spike into the lower-to-mid-60s. Elsewhere under mostly cloudy to overcast skies they are still in the lower-to-mid- 50s. As the potent mid/upper trough swings through this afternoon and early evening, skies will clear from west to east. Some high-res guidance is showing a few light showers/sprinkles this evening over the far NE associated with this trough, but skeptical of this given how dry it will be aloft. Winds gusting up to 15-25 mph will diminish some this evening, but a decent pressure gradient between the deepening low off the coast and high pressure building in from the Deep South will help some light NW winds linger into the overnight hours. This will prevent ideal radiational cooling despite clear skies, but the CAA will still help lows drop into the mid-30s to 40 (slightly below normal).
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 PM Thursday...
Friday and Friday night: In the wake of the exiting upper level trough, heights aloft will steadily increase across the region as a broad upper level ridge over the Central US builds eastward. At the surface, a strong pressure gradient will exist between a deepening area of low pressure tracking north off the New England coast and high pressure building east into the Deep South will yield breezy conditions. Expect frequent W-NWLY gusts of 20-30 mph, with occasional gusts as high as 30 to 35 mph, highest across northern portions of the piedmont and coastal plain counties. The brisk NW flow will also result in favorable downslope drying/mixing out of dewpoints and low-level warming. Afternoon RH values are expected to fall 25 to 35%, potentially as low as 20-25% across the NW Piedmont.
Fuels will likely be wet enough to avoid elevated fire weather conditions.
Underneath a scattered to occasionally broken diurnal cu field, highs ranging from mid 60s NE to lower 70s south.
Lows Friday night 40-45.
Saturday through Sunday night: The upper air pattern over the CONUS will undergo modest amplification over the weekend with substantial height rises noted over the SE US as the upper ridge continues to build east. Low-level SWLY flow around the surface high that will settle over the western Atlantic will yield a strong warmup through the weekend. After highs in the mid to upper 70s, Sunday highs will average 12 to 15 degrees above normal as temperatures top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Mostly dry and sunny conditions will prevail with intervals of mid and high clouds streaming across the area through much of the weekend. One possible exception could be late Sunday and into Sunday night as a frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic states could sag far enough south to support some isolated showers across the far northern counties.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 230 PM Thursday...
A subtropical ridge in place Mon from the GOM up through the Ohio Valley will shift east and off the coast by Tue morning as the positively tilted trough axis sags east. There remains some uncertainty with how this upper level pattern will evolve heading into Tues/Wed timeframe as it interacts with a northern stream trough digging central Canada into the Ohio Valley. From an ensemble approach, PWAT increases ahead of these features to around 1.25" within the deep stream of southwesterly flow through the troposphere, which is around 175% of normal for early April.
Some light rain may be possible as the mid/upper level ridge breaks down and weak disturbances ripple through the flow Mon afternoon into early Tues, but the better chance comes late Tues into early Wed. The stronger WAA and FGEN forcing along the 850mb front will be well displaced north of central NC and our area well within the warm sector. Scattered showers/storms may be possible on Tues within the warm sector, where temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low/mid 80s, with the best chances across the western Piedmont where weakening CIN and instability may be present during the afternoon.
Then a strong cold front moves through sometime between Tues night into Wed afternoon. There is still some uncertainty on timing of the fropa, which would have implication on the showers/storms and potential severe weather implication on Wed. Unfortunately, this timing uncertain is far too great to say much with any degree of confidence. Breezy to windy conditions will be possible on Thurs behind the stout cold front and tight pressure gradient in its wake as high pressure builds into the TN Valley. Temperatures will return to near normal to slightly below normal heading into late next week.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 215 PM Thursday...
24 hour TAF period: The rain has ended in the west (including INT and GSO) and largely ended at RDU and FAY, though there may be patchy very light rain or drizzle for a few more hours. Rain is still ongoing over the Coastal Plain (including RWI), but no visibility restrictions are expected given how light it is. The main aviation concern will be the MVFR to IFR ceilings that will slowly exit from west to east through the rest of this afternoon, with the exception of the NW Piedmont (including INT and GSO) which is already VFR. RDU and FAY should stay largely MVFR until later this afternoon when the low clouds finally exit, but periods of VFR before that can't be ruled out. RWI should stay MVFR to IFR until the light rain ends around 23z. Northerly winds may gust up to 15-20 kts at times for the rest of the afternoon. Skies will clear out and VFR conditions will prevail from 00z through the end of the TAF period.
The other aviation concern will be the threat of low-level wind shear, as NW winds strengthen to 35-40 kts at 2 kft this evening and overnight but diminish at the surface. The greatest threat is at the eastern terminals (RDU/FAY/RWI). This potential will end after daybreak tomorrow, as surface winds become westerly and increase again, gusting up to 15-25 kts.
Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through Monday. Gusty winds of 20-30 kts are expected from the SW on Sat. The next chance of showers/storms and sub-VFR conditions will come with a cold frontal passage on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KRDU RALEIGHDURHAM INTL,NC | 10 sm | 65 min | NE 09 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 59°F | 48°F | 67% | 29.90 | |
KTTA RALEIGH EXEC JETPORT AT SANFORDLEE COUNTY,NC | 17 sm | 26 min | E 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 57°F | 45°F | 63% | 29.91 |
Tide / Current for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (hide/show)  Help
Bannermans Branch
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:42 AM EDT 0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:55 AM EDT 1.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:34 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 01:20 PM EDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:08 PM EDT 1.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:29 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:56 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:42 AM EDT 0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:55 AM EDT 1.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:34 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 01:20 PM EDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:08 PM EDT 1.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:29 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:56 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet
12 am |
0.2 |
1 am |
0.1 |
2 am |
0.3 |
3 am |
0.7 |
4 am |
1.2 |
5 am |
1.4 |
6 am |
1.4 |
7 am |
1.4 |
8 am |
1.2 |
9 am |
1 |
10 am |
0.7 |
11 am |
0.5 |
12 pm |
0.3 |
1 pm |
0.1 |
2 pm |
0.2 |
3 pm |
0.5 |
4 pm |
0.9 |
5 pm |
1.2 |
6 pm |
1.3 |
7 pm |
1.2 |
8 pm |
1.1 |
9 pm |
0.9 |
10 pm |
0.6 |
11 pm |
0.4 |
Raleigh/Durham, NC,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE