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FXUS62 KRAH 010104 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 805 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Surface high pressure centered off the Carolina coast will shift further offshore through tonight, as a warm front develops near the Carolina coast. This front will move inland and stall over the Carolinas Friday through Friday night. Unsettled weather will persist through the weekend as a cold front approaches from the west, while multiple upper level disturbances move overhead. The cold front will move through Sunday night, bringing cooler and drier weather for Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 245 PM Thursday...

One last fairly quiet night weather-wise. While weak high pressure remains at the NC coast, the primary high has already shifted off the coast, and the surface analysis and satellite imagery reveal the developing inverted trough just off the Southeast coast. High thin clouds continue to streak across S NC and SC along and to the south of the STJ axis. As this upper jetlet over the Carolinas weakens and shifts E with a strengthening jet from the Plains into the Ohio Valley later tonight, in tandem with the arrival of a dampening mid level perturbation into the S Appalachians within flat SW steering flow, this high level moisture will continue to spread in, with a trend toward partly cloudy skies NE and mostly cloudy to overcast across our S and W. After midnight, models depict strengthening low level S cyclonic flow that continues through daybreak, and with this accelerating flow drawing greater Gulf and Atlantic moisture into the area (most evident at 975-850 mb) from the S and SW, moist upglide begins to ramp up through the 285-295K depth, although the strongest upglide is still to our S and SW through sunrise. We may see isolated patches of light rain esp over the W Piedmont late tonight, however this is likely to have low coverage and be too light to measure, thus have left pops under 15% through tonight.
With surface dewpoints, low level thicknesses, and sky cover all increasing overnight, we should have a swift drop near sunset with a leveling-off of temps overnight. Lows 29-39. -GIH

Other than minor tweaks to temp/dewpoint/sky cover, forecast is on track. The surface high centered over eastern NC will continue a slow eastward drift today, resulting in a largely light flow from the SW today, stronger NW and lighter SE. One passing batch of high thin clouds is currently exiting to our E, and additional mid and high clouds will start to spread in through this afternoon, however this should all be thin and sunshine should still be fairly abundant today. Low level thicknesses came in 35+ m warmer than yesterday morning, and with neutral to weakly warm air advection today, highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s are expected. -GIH

Earlier discussion from 632 AM: Current analysis shows mainly zonal flow aloft (along with plenty of cirrus in said flow) while at the surface high pressure remains centered over the SE states including NC. Given the flow aloft and eastward shift of the pattern, the aforementioned high pressure center will shift to our east today while remaining extended across the Carolinas. As for today's sensible wx, we'll see plenty of sunshine which may be filtered at times by high clouds moving across the region. NWP progs show gradual rising heights and rising low level thickness thanks to BL flow becoming more SWLY and increasing, thus resulting in WAA in that layer. H8 temps are expected to increase some 3-6C today, so look for high temps about 10F warmer today compared to yesterday...mid to upper 50s for highs.

For this evening and overnight... clear to pc cloudy skies will start off the evening hours, but then we'll see clouds quickly increasing from the SW later overnight as moist SW flow increases over the SE states well out ahead of a s/w trough lifting NE across the central Plains and mid Miss Valley. Temps will fall quickly after sunset then level off later overnight as the clouds move in.
Lows will range from 33 to 37, coolest across our NE zones where the clouds arrive later.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 153 PM Thursday...

Upper pattern: An elongated trough is expected to develop over the southern to central US on Friday. A strong jet embedded within the trough is then forecast to strengthen before lifting across the eastern seaboard through early next week.

Precipitation: Guidance continues to trend towards a low QPF event on Friday. The better upper forcing should remain well to our northwest, leaving us with primarily light intermittent stratiform rain via isentropic upglide. Generally a few hundreds to about a tenth of an inch of rain is expected area-wide.

High-res guidance is in pretty good agreement suggesting a relative lull in precipitation late Friday night into the early Saturday time period. However, there could be some scattered showers particularly across the NC/SC border through ~12Z Saturday morning. Otherwise, rain chances look to increase starting late Saturday morning through the evening period as the influence of the upper jet starts to spill into our area. POPs will increase from south to north as a wave of low pressure passes by to our south. Instability should largely remain to our south with mainly stratiform rain expected for our area. However, some higher rain rates could be possible near the NC/SC border Saturday afternoon if some meager instability can be realized.

Scattered showers again appear possible on Sunday as the jet continues to push across the eastern seaboard. However, similar to Friday, the better forcing should stay north of the area. Thus, low QPF is expected on Sunday. Rain chances will lessen from west to east late Sunday into early Monday morning as considerably drier air advects into central NC. Storm total QPF from Friday through early Monday morning ranges from about a half inch across the north to about an inch across the south.

Temperatures: A decently steep gradient in temperatures appears likely on Friday as residual CAD locks upper 40s to lower 50s for highs in the Triad area. Highs should be warmer with southeastward extent maximizing in the Coastal Plain in the mid 60s. Temps will then rise above normal in the upper 60s/lower 70s this weekend.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 200 PM Thursday...

The low pressure system responsible for weekend precipitation should be off New England by Monday morning. As a cold front moves through, a lingering shower will remain possible across North Carolina on Monday, but the chances are minimal. Another low pressure system will move from the Great Lakes to the mid-Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday, but it appears that any showers with this system should remain north of North Carolina. However, colder air will move in with a cold front behind the mid-week system, dropping temperatures a few degrees. Overall, the week will start with near normal temperatures, then go down through the week.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 805 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions are likely to hold areawide through at least 12z, as high pressure sitting over the region shifts slowly to the E and offshore. High clouds will continue to spread in from the SW through the rest of tonight. Lower clouds will begin to develop after 12z and fill in Friday. Spotty light rain is expected Friday.

Looking beyond 18z Fri, sub-VFR conditions are expected to dominate from Fri afternoon through at least Sun morning, esp at INT/GSO, with periods of light rain or drizzle. Low level wind shear is more likely late Sat night into early Sun. Cigs may lift toward VFR Sun afternoon with more showery precipitation expected. VFR conditions should return Sun evening/night and persist through Tue. -GIH

CLIMATE

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

December 2: KFAY: 64/1991

December 3: KRDU: 58/1982

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Bannermans Branch
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Thu -- 12:00 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:07 AM EST     1.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:14 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:48 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:27 PM EST     1.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:51 PM EST     Moonrise
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Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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