Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Furnace Creek, CA

DISCUSSION

Early this morning, the initial band of elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms is pushing northward across southern Inyo, Central Clark, and northern Mohave Counties, with the next band following on its heels, expected to reach the Las Vegas Valley by sunrise. Rainfall amounts thus far have been paltry at best, generally sprinkles to a couple hundredths of an inch, with this trend expected to continue through this afternoon. Downdraft CAPE generally ranges from around 1200-1500 J/kg, increasing to around 1800 J/kg toward the southern Great Basin, with the persistently dry subcloud layer acting to evaporate rain before it can reach the surface, in spite of mid-level moisture yielding precipitable water values ranging from around 175 to 225 percent of normal.
Later this morning, high-resolution CAM guidance is in fairly good agreement that coverage of storms will increase, with continued threat of downburst winds and lightning strikes, particularly along and just north of I-15 as convection gradually drifts northeastward through the afternoon. By early this evening, most convective activity is expected to be northeast of the area, with drier conditions to follow tonight onward. Temperatures today cool several degrees from yesterday's highs thanks to the push of mid- level moisture, but will remain slightly above normal for most of the area. With the drying expected on Thursday, temperatures will receive a slight bump, but it will be short-lived.

Late this week into the weekend, an anomalously potent trough for this time of year will translate out of the Pacific Northwest, deepening over the Great Basin. This trough will bring a return of gusty southerly to southwesterly winds to the region, scouring out any remaining moisture from this midweek system. Winds increase markedly on Friday, especially across the western Mojave Desert, Inyo County, and the higher terrain, with these winds gradually becoming more widespread through Saturday, which looks to be the windiest day. Gusts to 25 to 45 mph will be common, with local enhancements expected in areas favored for terrain-driven downslope winds. Impacts are expected to be hazardous driving conditions due to crosswinds and localized blowing dust, dangerous boating conditions on area lakes, as well as a return of critical fire weather conditions. Given the substantial drying expected with these winds, afternoon RHs will drop to around 5 to 15 percent for most locations, with concerns for not only new wind- driven wildfires, but realization of new fire-starts due to lightning strikes with the current system moving through the area.
Additional details can be found in the Fire Weather Discussion below.

Breezy conditions will linger into Sunday, which looks to be the coolest day of the forecast as the aforementioned trough moves over the area. Highs Sunday will be as much as 10 to 15 degrees below normal for late June, before a gradual warming trend begins Monday as ridging attempts to build westward into the region.
Despite this warming trend, temperatures through midweek next week look to remain below normal, with lighter winds and dry conditions expected to continue.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid
For the 12Z Forecast Package
Low confidence wind forecast through at least mid afternoon as scattered showers and isolated storms develop in and around the valley. Winds are likely to be erratic and greatly influenced by the nearby convection with gusts up to 25 knots possible. However, precipitation should be fairly light and cloud bases around 10kft.
Best rain chances appear to be between 14z and 18z. Chance of vicinity lightning around 25%. Activity should wane by mid/late afternoon, allowing southerly breezes to return and improving sky conditions.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California
For the 12Z Forecast Package
Scattered showers and isolated storms continue across the Mojave Desert this morning, becoming focused in southeastern NV and northwestern AZ in the afternoon. Expect erratic and potentially gusty winds near the more robust activity. Otherwise, breezes should favor a southerly to westerly direction this afternoon. Cloud bases around 10kft.
Convection may linger in our far northeastern areas into the evening hours, but should cease elsewhere by mid/late afternoon with improving sky conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

This morning, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for portions of San Bernardino County, including the Mojave Preserve. Showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms will continue moving north- northeastward across that area through this morning, with associated lightning strikes and gusty downburst winds with little rainfall expected to yield increased concern for new fire starts.
This threat will lessen as convection moves out of that area through this afternoon. Of more substantial concern are fairly widespread critical fire weather conditions expected to develop Friday afternoon and persist through Saturday evening as remaining moisture is quickly scoured out by increasing southerly to southwesterly winds. 20ft winds will gust upwards of 30 to 45 mph at times, with the strongest gusts in favored areas across the higher terrain. These winds combined with min RHs around 5 to 15 percent and poor nocturnal recovery will lead to high fire danger, with concern for the development of new wind-driven wildfires, some of which may be initiated by lightning strikes associated with today's convective activity. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for most of the area Friday morning through Saturday evening, with slowly improving conditions expected Sunday onward as temperatures drop below normal and winds decrease heading into next week.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.