SHORT TERM
Today through Monday.

The Las Vegas measured PWAT from the 00Z sounding was already down to 0.64" at the time of launch (4pm PDT 7/26). Dry air continued to push into the region through the remainder of the day yesterday, which scoured out any cloud cover or chances of precipitation.
Expect dry conditions through the weekend with temperatures within a few degrees of seasonal averages thanks to troughing across the region that has squashed the upper-level monsoonal high pressure and dropped heights over the area.

Las Vegas has observed 37 consecutive days of temperatures over 105 degrees as of yesterday. The previous record was 25 days in 2017.
Will we break this streak on Sunday? Latest NBM probabilities show a 60% chance of Las Vegas reaching 105 or higher on Sunday and an 85% chance on Monday. If Las Vegas reaches or exceeds 105 on Sunday and Monday, there will not be another opportunity to break this streak through the remainder of the forecast period.

Smoke from the Borel Fire in Kern County and the Trout Fire in Tulane County has ushered across southeastern California into southern Nevada this morning, resulting in reduced visibility and a strong smoke smell. This should dissipate through the morning, but is likely to return this afternoon with gusty southwesterly winds.


LONG TERM
Tuesday through Saturday.

Period begins with a weakening/filling trough across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies Tuesday. This will start to cause the southwest flow over the southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert to start weakening.

For Wednesday-Saturday, ridge which had been suppressed over the southern High Plains will start to expand westward. This will cause temperatures to heat back up above normal, with the lower deserts/Colorado River Valley locations back in the 110-115 degree range and Death Valley NP back above 120 degrees.

Under the expanding ridge, moisture will begin to creep back west with NBM guidance introducing 10%-30% chance PoPs in northwest Arizona. Also, potentially a few hi-based storms west of the Colorado River over eastern San Bernardino County and southeast Nevada Thursday-Saturday.


AVIATION
For Harry Reid...Southwest winds will prevail today and tonight with gusts around 25 knots in the afternoon and early evening. Smoke from wildfires in southern California will likely keep surface visibility 5-6 SM until 15-16Z then smoke will clear out and visibility will improve.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Widespread southwest or west winds will prevail across most of the region today and tonight with gusts 20-25 knots during the afternoon and early evening at most TAF sites. Smoke from fires in southern California will restrict surface visibility to 5-6SM across the area between KDAG and KLAS until 15-16Z then smoke will become more diffuse late this morning through the afternoon.


FIRE WEATHER
Very dry conditions will result in afternoon relative humidity values in the single digits areawide through Wednesday, with the exception of far eastern Mohave County and areas above 7000 feet with overnight recoveries between 15 and 25 percent.
Breezy southwest winds today will result in elevated fire concerns across southeastern Lincoln County and eastern Clark County and critical concerns in northern Mohave County. Expect sustained winds around 20 mph and gusts to 35 mph. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Mohave County from 11am to 8pm MST.


SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.