Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fort Washington, CA

KEY MESSAGES

1. A warming trend will continue this week with afternoon temperatures approaching 20 to 25 degrees above average today through Saturday.

2. Daily and monthly record high maximum temperatures will continue to be challenged this week.

3. Practice cold water safety, as waterways will be running cold and fast over the next several days.

DISCUSSION
The strong high pressure ridge will continue to bring record- breaking temperatures to the region through Saturday. Yesterday we saw record daily highs across the Valley, as well as record monthly highs at Fresno, Bakersfield and Merced. Chances for highs of 95 degrees or higher today and Saturday are 20-40%, while Friday is slightly higher at 30 to 50%. Thankfully the ridge will begin to weaken by Saturday afternoon, and zonal flow is expected to become the dominate pattern by Sunday. This will lead to a significant cooling of temperatures, though they will still be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year, and thus still a Minor Heat Risk for the Valley and Mojave Desert.

Looking to the long term forecast, above normal temperatures are likely to persist as the zonal flow leads back into ridging by Tuesday next week, though this ridge is expected to be less intense than the ridge aloft today. Probabilities for 90 degrees increases for the Valley on Monday and Tuesday with that second ridge, and then again on Friday and Saturday next week as a another ridge may build in again. The CPC is also indicating above normal temperatures for days 6-10 and days 8-14, as well as below normal precipitation in line with a continued stable pattern.


AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER
Warming air temperatures and steady dew point temperatures will lead to a decrease in minimum relative humidities, especially for the Mojave Desert, high Sierra, and Coastal Range. This will coincide with a sharp decrease in 100- and 1000-hr dead fuel moistures and an increase in ERC in these areas. Rapid curing of fine fuels will bring about some risk for isolated grass fires. However, live fuel moisture remains below critical thresholds and significant wild fire potential remains at little or no risk.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.



CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.