Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Springfield, MO
November 29, 2023 10:53 PM CST (04:53 UTC)
Sunrise 7:04AM Sunset 4:58PM Moonrise 6:47PM Moonset 9:37AM
Area Discussion for - Springfield, MO
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FXUS63 KSGF 292330 AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 530 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
Key Messages:
1. Widespread rain moves in Thursday into early Friday. High probability of at least a half inch of rainfall (85-95% chance).
2. Near to slightly above normal temperatures over the next 7 days. Then, above normal temperatures likely (50-60% chance) for the Dec 6-12 period.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
High pressure to our southeast and upper level ridging are making for a warm, pleasant day today. Temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 50s across the region, nearing forecast highs for the day. An upper level trough digging down through the west coast will move west through the day and intensity into a concentrated, high- energy shortwave over the southern Plains by midday tomorrow.
Increasing upper level cloud cover has begun to filter into the region from the southwest ahead of this feature.
This cloud cover will allow for lows tonight to stay up in the low to mid 40s. Southwest winds through the day will shift to more southerly in the evening and overnight with gusts up to 25 mph in some locations through the early morning hours tomorrow. Some low level wind shear concerns for aviation are expected tonight.
Thursday's weather is the big story with this forecast. As the shortwave approaches the Ozarks from the southwest, it will become increasingly negatively tilted (dynamically intensifying) while Gulf moisture streams into the area. Precipitable water values are forecast to be much above average (~90th percentile) in excess of 1.00" across the region. The Weather Prediction Center has included the southern half of the forecast area in a marginal risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall (at least 5% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point). Flash flood guidance is right around 3" for most of the area.
Rain showers will begin in the southwest just before sunrise Thursday morning and become more widespread as they move northeast and spread throughout the area. Instability will be lacking, but the HRRR shows a 10-30% chance for lightning with this activity particularly in the south and west. Highs Thursday will be in the mid to low 50s.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
The rain will persist all day and into the night, beginning to end in the southwest just after midnight Friday morning. Lows Thursday night will be in the low to mid 40s. Precipitation will continue to move northeast with the majority clearing the region by the start of the work day. The HRRR LPMM is showing widespread rainfall accumulations for this event up to 1" with localized pockets of up to 2-2.5". NBM probabilistic rainfall amounts show a 40% (SW MO) to 75% (central MO) chance for >1.00" and a <15% chance for 2.00".
A cold front passes through the region from the northwest over the course of the day Friday resulting in a gradient of high temperatures with mid 40s in the northwest to mid 60s in the southeast. Dense cloud cover is expected.
Longwave troughing will persist through the weekend with pieces of energy passing by that have the potential to result in a rain shower Saturday night (20-30% PoPs). There is currently ensemble disagreement on this outcome.
Upper level ridging and northwest flow will build back into the region for the extended, keeping the area dry with near-normal temperatures.
AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
VFR through the next few hours before clouds start to move into the area. Low level wind shear is possible tonight for SGF and JLN. Ceilings will drop to MVFR by Thursday morning as rain begins to move in. Periods of IFR could occur in and around heavier rain showers. Expect rain to persist for most of Thursday.
Winds will be out of the southwest around 10 kts.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 530 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
Key Messages:
1. Widespread rain moves in Thursday into early Friday. High probability of at least a half inch of rainfall (85-95% chance).
2. Near to slightly above normal temperatures over the next 7 days. Then, above normal temperatures likely (50-60% chance) for the Dec 6-12 period.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
High pressure to our southeast and upper level ridging are making for a warm, pleasant day today. Temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 50s across the region, nearing forecast highs for the day. An upper level trough digging down through the west coast will move west through the day and intensity into a concentrated, high- energy shortwave over the southern Plains by midday tomorrow.
Increasing upper level cloud cover has begun to filter into the region from the southwest ahead of this feature.
This cloud cover will allow for lows tonight to stay up in the low to mid 40s. Southwest winds through the day will shift to more southerly in the evening and overnight with gusts up to 25 mph in some locations through the early morning hours tomorrow. Some low level wind shear concerns for aviation are expected tonight.
Thursday's weather is the big story with this forecast. As the shortwave approaches the Ozarks from the southwest, it will become increasingly negatively tilted (dynamically intensifying) while Gulf moisture streams into the area. Precipitable water values are forecast to be much above average (~90th percentile) in excess of 1.00" across the region. The Weather Prediction Center has included the southern half of the forecast area in a marginal risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall (at least 5% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point). Flash flood guidance is right around 3" for most of the area.
Rain showers will begin in the southwest just before sunrise Thursday morning and become more widespread as they move northeast and spread throughout the area. Instability will be lacking, but the HRRR shows a 10-30% chance for lightning with this activity particularly in the south and west. Highs Thursday will be in the mid to low 50s.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
The rain will persist all day and into the night, beginning to end in the southwest just after midnight Friday morning. Lows Thursday night will be in the low to mid 40s. Precipitation will continue to move northeast with the majority clearing the region by the start of the work day. The HRRR LPMM is showing widespread rainfall accumulations for this event up to 1" with localized pockets of up to 2-2.5". NBM probabilistic rainfall amounts show a 40% (SW MO) to 75% (central MO) chance for >1.00" and a <15% chance for 2.00".
A cold front passes through the region from the northwest over the course of the day Friday resulting in a gradient of high temperatures with mid 40s in the northwest to mid 60s in the southeast. Dense cloud cover is expected.
Longwave troughing will persist through the weekend with pieces of energy passing by that have the potential to result in a rain shower Saturday night (20-30% PoPs). There is currently ensemble disagreement on this outcome.
Upper level ridging and northwest flow will build back into the region for the extended, keeping the area dry with near-normal temperatures.
AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
VFR through the next few hours before clouds start to move into the area. Low level wind shear is possible tonight for SGF and JLN. Ceilings will drop to MVFR by Thursday morning as rain begins to move in. Periods of IFR could occur in and around heavier rain showers. Expect rain to persist for most of Thursday.
Winds will be out of the southwest around 10 kts.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSGF SPRINGFIELDBRANSON NATIONAL,MO | 6 sm | 61 min | S 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 48°F | 34°F | 57% | 29.96 |
Wind History from SGF
(wind in knots)
Springfield, MO,
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