Springfield, MO Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Springfield, MO

June 15, 2024 12:44 PM CDT (17:44 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM
Moonrise 1:37 PM   Moonset 12:54 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Springfield, MO
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Area Discussion for - Springfield, MO
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FXUS63 KSGF 151040 AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 540 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Low-end thunderstorm chances today (15-30%).

- Heat and humidity will continue through much of next week.

- Daily chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms (15-30%)
thanks to the hot and humid air mass.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Current water vapor imagery depicts large-scale clockwise flow over the Plains states with an MCS in KS/Ne ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting out of CO/NM. The longwave ridge axis creating the clockwise flow is currently entering MO. At the surface, a weak boundary is progged just south of the MO/AR border with E'ly winds north of it across our region. Temperatures are on track to remain mild into this morning with lows only reaching into the lower 70s near the MO/AR and MO/KS border and in the middle to upper 60s toward central MO. Dewpoints are hovering in the upper 60s and lower 70s in some places, therefore, some light fog is not out of the question this morning. Some light fog has already been reported between Mountain Grove and West Plains in low spots along Highway 60/63.

Heat and humidity continue today:

With the ridge in place and 850 mb temperatures in the 20-22 C range, high temperatures today will remain hot in the lower 90s.
Heat Indices will reach into the middle to upper 90s as humidity remains high with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Continue to exercise caution when being outdoors for extended periods of time. Take frequent breaks, have methods of cooling available, and drink plenty of water.

Low-end thunderstorm chances today (15-30%):

The MCS in KS/NE is forecast to weaken as it moves eastward through the night. CAMs depict much of the remnant precipitation staying north of our area where the better shear is, however, there is a very low chance (<15%) that some isolated showers and thunderstorms could reach into our northern counties early this morning within the 6-10 AM timeframe. Confidence in this scenario is currently very low as shear and instability will be quite minimal and nocturnal inhibition will be well in place.
However, it is not out of the question if sufficient elevated lift reaches into our region given MUCAPE values at 1000-1500 J/kg.

As the shortwave approaches the area behind the decayed MCS, an associated surface mass response will begin lifting the boundary northward as a warm front, reorienting it to NNW-SSE generally along the MO/KS border. Along this boundary, dewpoints will be in the low 70s, supplying an axis of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE west of Hwy 65 as noted by RAP and HRRR soundings. This will be the focus for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon (15-30% chance). With upper-level support from the shortwave displaced to the north, convergence along the boundary will be the main source of lift for these storms. RAP and HRRR suggest a weakly capped environment (0-25 J/kg MLCIN), so if convergence is strong enough for updrafts to develop, the resulting thunderstorms will be rather isolated to scattered in nature.

Although the belt of faster winds associated with the mid- level shortwave will stay north of the area, 15-25 kts of deep layer shear will still be available within the region.
Additionally, although it isn't prime pulse thunderstorm season just yet, our Ozark Pulse Thunderstorm Index is moderate to high at 4-7 west of Hwy 65. The Ozarks Pulse Severe Thunderstorm Index is between 14-18 for the same region. These combined factors suggest that any storms that do form will be capable of producing sub-severe to marginally severe hazards including wind gusts of 30-60 mph and small hail. This is supported by mid- level lapse rates at 6.5-7 C/km (supportive of small hail) and inverted-V soundings with low-level lapse rates at 7.5-8 C/km (supportive of downbursts).

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Heat and humidity will continue through next week:

As the longwave ridge slowly progresses eastward, it is forecast to stall over the eastern CONUS and build substantially, creating a heat dome across the eastern US. ESATs are continuing to signal near record high geopotential heights off to our east. While the center of the upper-level high will not be over our region, the western fringes of it will still produce enough subsidence and subsequent adiabatic warming to keep temperatures high. Additionally, being on the western fringes of the upper- level high will allow SSW'ly mean flow, keeping a steady supply of warm and moist air. These factors combined will keep daily highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and nightly lows in the upper 60s to mid-70s.

The hottest days look to be Sunday and Monday with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower to mid-70s. In the extended range, the NBM is beginning to signal the "excessive heat" that was messaged in the past few AFDs by the WPC. Forecast highs Thursday and Friday are reaching into the mid-90s. During this period, Heat Indices will be in the middle to upper 90s, reaching near or above 100 F at times. Once again, with the prolonged nature of this heat and humidity, heat stress will be a constant hazard. This is backed up by constant lower to middle 80s Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures and a Moderate to Major (level 2 to 3 out of 4) Risk for heat-related impacts. Continue to exercise caution when being outdoors for extended periods of time. Take frequent breaks, have methods of cooling available, and drink plenty of water.

After the 7-day period, heat and humidity is still forecast as the ridge continues to have a hold over the eastern US. For the moment, there looks to be no short-term end to the heat and humidity save for if an isolated thunderstorm impacts your area.

Daily chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms (15-30%):

As previously mentioned, our region will be on the western side of the building upper-level high next week, producing SW'ly mean flow. This will create a constant stream of moisture into our region. ESATs have our area constantly above the 90th percentile for mean specific humidity and PWATs, and nearing the 99.5th percentile on some days, particularly Tuesday.
Additionally, deterministic models hint at weak tropical disturbances coming out of the Gulf, rounding the upper-level high. Even furthermore, with SW'ly mean flow just to our west, subtle shortwaves from the polar jet may also come near our region. These disturbances would interact with the hot and humid air mass, and with the NBM giving 50-80% chances for CAPE > 500 J/kg each day, there will be daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (15-30%).

Sunday will exhibit the lowest chance (<15%), however, with the shortwave trough still exiting the region Sunday, and some CAMs such as MPAS portraying isolated showers and thunderstorms, there is still a low-end risk, generally in the eastern Ozarks.

Monday will exhibit the highest chance (15-35% east of Hwy 65)
as a tropical disturbance coming out of the Gulf advects positive vorticity into the region. This could provide enough lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday will exhibit the most widespread chance (15-30% across our entire CWA) as an additional wave of positive vorticity advection coming out of the Gulf meets with a cold front across the central Plains. Once again, these features could give enough lift to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms.

After this, models diverge on the westward extent of the ridge and where each disturbance ejects, however, chances still exist for showers and storms through Friday (15-25% chances).

In the coming days, each round will become clearer with better details in forthcoming short-term forecasts.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 540 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period with a 15-30% chance of a brief interruption due to an isolated shower or thunderstorm between 19-01Z. If a storm were to impact a TAF site, lightning and modest gusts up to 40 mph will be the main hazards. Additionally, heavy rainfall will decrease visibilities. Otherwise, winds will generally be S'ly at 8-12 kts with gusts up to 15-20 kts at times this afternoon. Lastly, some stratus over JLN and BBG at 4-6 kft should erode through the next few hours, leaving just FEW to SCT high clouds for the rest of the period.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSGF SPRINGFIELDBRANSON NATIONAL,MO 6 sm52 minSSE 0910 smClear84°F73°F70%29.99
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