Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Springfield, MO

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a deep southwest flow pattern from the Pacific into Texas and up into the Ozarks region. The 12z KSGF sounding showed a strong elevated mixed layer with around 800j/kg of convective inhibition. Partly cloudy skies have allowed for temps to warm well into the 70s however clouds were on the increase which may keep highs in check this afternoon.
The surface cold front was just beginning to enter Bourbon County Kansas and was slowly moving southeast. Ahead of the front, dewpoints have risen into the lower 60s with PW values now around 1.2in. A few elevated showers have formed however the cap will likely keep storms at bay until evening.

This Evening and Overnight: The front will move into the area this evening and overall lift will increase and should force the development of storms. When storms form along the front is in question as the latest few runs of the CAMS are showing development by 6-7pm along and just south of the I-44 corridor.
Forecast soundings for this time/location shows about 1500j/kg of ML CAPE and 50kts of 0-6km shear. This CAPE/Shear combo along with a large hail parameter around 4-8 suggests the potential for large hail in the 1 inch to 1.75in range (up to golf ball).
This is a slight increase in hail size. Otherwise damaging winds would be possible as well. Southwest surface winds will likely keep the tornado threat very low.

Heading later into the evening and overnight (after 10pm), the low level jet will ramp up south of the area and force additional showers and storms to form behind the front from Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and then moving into Missouri.
These storms would be elevated which would favor a hail threat versus wind threat however any stronger updrafts could punch through the inversion and produce locally damaging winds.

Of greater concern is the potential for flash flooding overnight as both rounds of storms could move over the same areas. PW values around 1.4-1.5in is around 200% of normal. Latest 12z HRRR guidance shows two potential narrow stripes of heavy rainfall overnight (1-3 inches overnight). One area from SE Kansas into west central Missouri and the other area along and just southeast of I-44 from Barry County to Springfield to Dent County. These heavier stripes of rainfall are hard to pin down but we are confident they will occur. Flash flooding would likely occur in these areas given high rainfall rates.

Saturday: The surface front will be near or just south of the Missouri/Arkansas line however we expect additional light to moderate rainfall spreading north into the area through the day.HRRR guidance shows about 0.25-1 inch of rainfall through the day Saturday. By afternoon and evening, additional, slightly heavier rainfall rates and thunderstorms may move up from the south however confidence remains low in this scenario.
Instability is still in question and could limit the thunderstorm and severe threat or reduce it to areas closer to the Arkansas state line. Temps will likely be much cooler along and north of I-44 with temps staying in the 50s there and 60s south of I-44.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Saturday Night through Sunday: Main shortwave will begin to lift northeast from the Texas panhandle into Kansas. Another round of showers and storms looks to move through Saturday night however we are beginning to become more concerned with the final round of thunderstorms Sunday. Guidance has shifted slightly west with the upper system and associated low/cold front. A warm front looks to lift north through the area Sunday morning which could place the area in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. Guidance suggests that the upper system becomes negatively tilted as it lifts towards Missouri which will allow for increased directional and speed shear across the area as the front moves through. Depending on amount of instability, severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds could all be possible Sunday afternoon and evening, especially along and east of Highway 65. An enhanced risk for severe storms is being introduced across central Missouri Sunday, closer to the triple point. Definently remain weather aware on Sunday.

Total Rainfall Amounts/Hydrology Impacts: No major changes to expectations for total rainfall amounts through the weekend.
Latest HRRR LPMM guidance (which only goes out to 7am Sunday)
has mean amounts of 2-4 inches. This does not include the Sunday round therefore total amounts of 2-4 inches with localized amounts of 5-7inches will occur. We think these amounts are reasonable however exact location of the front will determine where the max amounts occur. This amount of rainfall will likely cause flash flooding of low water crossings along with an overall increase in river levels. Latest HEFS guidance continues to suggest that some rivers may approach minor flood stage with this event.

Next Week: Latest ensemble data continues to be consistent in bringing additional shortwaves into the area from the west/southwest Tuesday through Thursday. NBM rainfall probs continue to increase, especially Wednesday and Thursday and we will need to monitor where this rainfall sets up given the heavy rainfall from this weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the TAF period.
Look for occasional breaks in storms, but predictability of when those will occur is low.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106.