Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Springfield, MO
March 28, 2024 12:20 PM CDT (17:20 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:02 AM Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 10:09 PM Moonset 7:32 AM |
Area Discussion for - Springfield, MO
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FXUS63 KSGF 281715 AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1215 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A warming trend will bring temperatures well above normal for Friday through Monday.
- Windy conditions are expected Friday with wind gusts over 40 mph possible northwest of I-44.
- An active weather period Sunday into Monday with some strong to possibly severe storms.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Mid-level height rises and modest warm air advection will allow temperatures to climb into the mid 60s today across the area along with clear skies.
The main story today will be locally elevated fire conditions.
Dew points were lowered slightly from the NBM given its tendency to be too quick to bring moisture back into region on the first day of southerly flow. Additionally, forecast soundings indicate the potential for mixing down drier air aloft. Forecast minimum relative humidity this afternoon ranges from near 25% across the eastern Ozarks to 40% across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. Winds will be modest today, however, and strongest (15-20 mph) north of I-44 closer to a tighter surface pressure gradient.
Continued warm air advection will negate any frost or freeze risk tonight, with lows only dipping into the 40s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Friday will be marked by windy conditions. A strengthening low on the lee side of the Rockies will increase the surface pressure gradient across the region. Concurrently, guidance depicts a strong 50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet nudging into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri Friday afternoon. This tight pressure gradient and a well mixed thermodynamic profile will allow for wind gusts of 35-45 mph, particularly north and west of I-44. Notably, NBM percentile data show high probabilities (80-100%) of wind gusts greater than 40 mph for this area. We will continue to monitor trends for potential headline issuance. These gusty winds will produce the potential for areas of elevated fire danger despite gradually increasing moisture return.
Temperatures will climb above normal Friday as well, with forecast highs in the low to mid 70s. The warming trend will continue through the weekend into Monday, with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 on Sunday and Monday. These temperatures are 10-15 degrees above the climatological normal.
Global models depict an upper-level disturbance skirting the Pacific coast Friday night into Saturday. As it does, an east- west oriented surface front looks to set up across central Missouri. With continued southerly flow, there may be just enough moisture to squeeze out a few showers along the boundary as early as Friday night and continuing through Saturday.
Ensemble members depict varying solutions, however, so confidence is low, and current NBM PoPs generally remain 30% or less and are largely confined to central Missouri.
Better shower and thunderstorm chances are introduced Sunday into Monday as the aforementioned upper-level disturbance ejects out of the Southwest. At the surface, a low pressure system will shift east through the Plains, with a dryline extending south into Texas and a warm front extending east across central Missouri. Although important details remain unclear (such as how far south the trough digs), LREF clusters have shown gradually increasing consistency in the overall synoptic pattern. Increasing moisture return across a broad warm sector over the region may be supportive of severe thunderstorm development. Trough timing and magnitude will determine when and if the better dynamics coincide with the instability and moisture, which will influence storm organization. CSU machine learning product continues to highlight the potential for severe weather for our area, and notably, the CIPS severe analog has shown increasing probabilities over the last several runs.
Given the uncertainty in the timing of the Sunday/Monday system, precipitation chances Tuesday are questionable. Current NBM chances drop below 15% Tuesday afternoon. Much cooler temperatures move in behind this system, with forecast highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions will persist with increasing high clouds. There will be smoke and haze across the region early this afternoon, however the densest smoke is expected to push north and west of the area by late afternoon.
Surface winds will increase out of the southwest overnight with low level wind shear developing. The wind shear will diminish by mid-morning on Friday, however surface winds will become gusty.
South to southwesterly wind gusts of 25-35 knots will occur.
CLIMATE
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Record High Temperatures:
March 30: KUNO: 82/1963 KVIH: 80/1967
April 1: KUNO: 86/2012
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
April 1: KSGF: 62/1946
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1215 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A warming trend will bring temperatures well above normal for Friday through Monday.
- Windy conditions are expected Friday with wind gusts over 40 mph possible northwest of I-44.
- An active weather period Sunday into Monday with some strong to possibly severe storms.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Mid-level height rises and modest warm air advection will allow temperatures to climb into the mid 60s today across the area along with clear skies.
The main story today will be locally elevated fire conditions.
Dew points were lowered slightly from the NBM given its tendency to be too quick to bring moisture back into region on the first day of southerly flow. Additionally, forecast soundings indicate the potential for mixing down drier air aloft. Forecast minimum relative humidity this afternoon ranges from near 25% across the eastern Ozarks to 40% across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. Winds will be modest today, however, and strongest (15-20 mph) north of I-44 closer to a tighter surface pressure gradient.
Continued warm air advection will negate any frost or freeze risk tonight, with lows only dipping into the 40s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Friday will be marked by windy conditions. A strengthening low on the lee side of the Rockies will increase the surface pressure gradient across the region. Concurrently, guidance depicts a strong 50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet nudging into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri Friday afternoon. This tight pressure gradient and a well mixed thermodynamic profile will allow for wind gusts of 35-45 mph, particularly north and west of I-44. Notably, NBM percentile data show high probabilities (80-100%) of wind gusts greater than 40 mph for this area. We will continue to monitor trends for potential headline issuance. These gusty winds will produce the potential for areas of elevated fire danger despite gradually increasing moisture return.
Temperatures will climb above normal Friday as well, with forecast highs in the low to mid 70s. The warming trend will continue through the weekend into Monday, with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 on Sunday and Monday. These temperatures are 10-15 degrees above the climatological normal.
Global models depict an upper-level disturbance skirting the Pacific coast Friday night into Saturday. As it does, an east- west oriented surface front looks to set up across central Missouri. With continued southerly flow, there may be just enough moisture to squeeze out a few showers along the boundary as early as Friday night and continuing through Saturday.
Ensemble members depict varying solutions, however, so confidence is low, and current NBM PoPs generally remain 30% or less and are largely confined to central Missouri.
Better shower and thunderstorm chances are introduced Sunday into Monday as the aforementioned upper-level disturbance ejects out of the Southwest. At the surface, a low pressure system will shift east through the Plains, with a dryline extending south into Texas and a warm front extending east across central Missouri. Although important details remain unclear (such as how far south the trough digs), LREF clusters have shown gradually increasing consistency in the overall synoptic pattern. Increasing moisture return across a broad warm sector over the region may be supportive of severe thunderstorm development. Trough timing and magnitude will determine when and if the better dynamics coincide with the instability and moisture, which will influence storm organization. CSU machine learning product continues to highlight the potential for severe weather for our area, and notably, the CIPS severe analog has shown increasing probabilities over the last several runs.
Given the uncertainty in the timing of the Sunday/Monday system, precipitation chances Tuesday are questionable. Current NBM chances drop below 15% Tuesday afternoon. Much cooler temperatures move in behind this system, with forecast highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions will persist with increasing high clouds. There will be smoke and haze across the region early this afternoon, however the densest smoke is expected to push north and west of the area by late afternoon.
Surface winds will increase out of the southwest overnight with low level wind shear developing. The wind shear will diminish by mid-morning on Friday, however surface winds will become gusty.
South to southwesterly wind gusts of 25-35 knots will occur.
CLIMATE
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Record High Temperatures:
March 30: KUNO: 82/1963 KVIH: 80/1967
April 1: KUNO: 86/2012
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
April 1: KSGF: 62/1946
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KSGF SPRINGFIELDBRANSON NATIONAL,MO | 6 sm | 28 min | WSW 08 | 7 sm | Clear | 55°F | 28°F | 35% | 30.20 |
Springfield, MO,
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