Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fordsville, KY

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Dry, mild, and breezy conditions continue this afternoon. Gusts have ranged mostly in the 25 to 35 mph range this afternoon, however a few notable gusts in the upper 30s have also been observed. Winds should slacken a bit around sunset, but overall steady to occasionally gusty winds will continue into the overnight. Also seeing some dry air mix down across our eastern counties, however given that we are greening up and area RAWs obs have 10 hour fuel moistures mostly in the 8-9% range not too concerned about widespread fire weather concerns. Will continue to monitor.

Expecting showers and storms to mainly stay north and west of our CWA tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. That being said, we could get some outflow dominant storms to sneak into our NW counties mainly in the overnight and pre-dawn hours. Supposed an isolated severe wind gust could occur, but overall not overly concerned given that the threat seems to be a bit more focused farther NW.

We will have to watch where the convectively reinforced outflow boundary ends up tomorrow morning and into the day, because this will essentially become the new boundary and be focus for any renewed convective development through the day. Like the idea of a Marginal Risk over the NW half where HRRR probs show a 50-60% chance of 500 J/KG of ML CAPE, however probs virtually drop off to 0 for 1000 J/KG. So, just enough instability for perhaps a few isolated strong wind gusts should convective development occur. Overall confidence is low and certainly acknowledge that it is a conditional threat on where the outflow boundary ultimately ends up.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Saturday Night - Monday...

A stalled sfc boundary over the region with an active southwest flow will result in showers and storms Sat night especially over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky closer to the boundary.

Sunday a strong low pressure system moves northeast from the Plains to the upper Midwest pulling the Ohio Valley boundary north as a warm front. As a result, in southern Indiana and central Kentucky only isld-sct showers/storms will be possible for part of Sunday.
Most locations could be mainly dry most of Sun-Sun evening with warm breezy conditions in the warm sector.

Late Sunday night into Monday morning a line of showers/storms just ahead of the cold front will pass through the region. There's decent shear for storms to work with but elevated CAPE is low.
Overall most models indicate showers/storms to be in a decaying state passing through southern IN/central KY during an unfavorable diurnal time Mon morning. As of this writing, perhaps strong storms may be possible but no clear severe threat looks apparent for late Sun night/Monday morning, though this could change as we get closer to the event.

Total rainfall Sat night through Monday looks to total less than 1 inch.

Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday afternoon and then drop back into the low to mid 70s Monday behind the cold front.

Tuesday - Friday...

Sfc high pressure briefly works in to for Tuesday and most of Wednesday keeping the area dry. Slightly cooler yet seasonal temperatures are expected behind the front. Highs look to be in the low to mid 70s for Tuesday with lows in the upper 40s and 50s.

The weather pattern quickly becomes active again as southwest flow sets up along another stalled frontal boundary for the second half of the week. Shower/storm chances will return Thu/Friday and possibly into next weekend. Temperatures look to be slightly above normal Wed-Fri with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s to low 60s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 703 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming TAF period. Main aviation issue this evening and into the overnight will be gusty southwest winds. Current thinking is we'll keep gusting through about sunset or so. Overnight, the low-level jet will be in place resulting in LLWS at KHNB/KSDF/KBWG.

Most convection looks to stay northwest of the region overnight.
However, sneaky outflow may push southward and spawn showers into KHNB/KSDF by dawn. For now will keep PROB30 going at those terminals.

VFR conditions are expected for Saturday, though we could see some showers in the KHNB/KSDF area during the morning. Breezy conditions are expected through the day again.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.