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PZZ531 San Francisco Bay South Of The Bay Bridge- 257 Pm Pst Tue Dec 5 2023
This afternoon..NW winds 5 to 10 knots.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 knots. Patchy dense fog. A slight chance of rain.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Rain.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain likely.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain likely.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 knots.
Sat..N winds around 5 knots.

PZZ500 257 Pm Pst Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
light winds will persist into the early evening when breezier southerly winds become possible across the northern outer waters. Winds across the central and southern waters will strengthen to a moderate to fresh breeze starting mid Wednesday ahead of an incoming cold front. Elevated seas between 12- 17 feet will persist for much of the week as a series of long period northwest swells propagate through the waters, resulting in hazardous conditions for small craft operators. Chances of rain over the waters will begin tonight and continue through the end of the work week.

FXUS66 KMTR 060151 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 551 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 123 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

Rain is on track to arrive early Wednesday morning with lingering post frontal showers into Thursday, bringing beneficial rain to the region. Cold morning temperatures expected at the end of the week.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

Rain is on track to move from northwest to southeast across the region late tonight and into Wednesday afternoon. Expecting up to 1.00" in coastal North Bay and 0.30-0.60" in the North Bay Valleys.
Meanwhile, the coastal areas of the San Francisco Bay and Santa Cruz Mountains can expect up to 0.50" with the City expecting 0.35".
Elsewhere, generally less than 0.25" is expected with trace amounts for interior Monterey and San Bentio counties. Overall, this will be beneficial rain with no major flooding expected.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 123 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

Lingering rain showers will prevail into Wednesday night and Thursday before clearing by Thursday night. Temperatures will also turn colder with the potential for frost/freeze products both Friday morning and moreso Saturday morning, especially across the interior.

Daytime temperatures will struggle to warm beyond the lower 60s for late week (40s/50s in the higher peaks). A subtle warming trend will occur heading into the weekend as high pressure noses into the region.

If planning to go to the beach, be sure to use caution still as the surf zone remains active and turbulent with large northwest swells moving through the coastal CA waters. See BEACHES section below for more detailed info.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

VFR continuing this evening with exception of KHAF showing IFR surface visibility in mist and ceiling 300 feet. Cirrus clouds are advancing over the forecast area ahead of increasing upper level jet stream divergence, a frontal band and rain all arriving Wednesday. In the interim, first approach to forecast tonight is near persistence since there've been no major disruptions to the current air mass, then considerations for timing fog /VLIFR-IFR/ redevelopment take into account 24 hour trends which show where there was fog this morning there may be delay in fog redevelopment tonight. Also need to monitor cirrus cloud coverage since that may slow radiational cooling to space if the cirrus clouds thicken. The 00z TAFs lean toward persistence; will continue monitoring satellite, surface observations, 24 hour temperature and humidity trends to help determine if amendments are needed.

Vicinity of SFO...Moderate to high confidence VFR extends through mid to late evening. Best chance for IFR redevelopment is Wednesday morning though this will depend on cirrus cloud thickness overnight.
Then the incoming frontal band rain arrives along with increasing southerly winds surface and aloft prior to cool frontal passage late Wednesday afternoon, ceiling and visibility Wednesday MVFR.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Moderate to high confidence VFR extends through the evening. Patchy lowering ceilings /MVFR-IFR/ thereafter developing into Wednesday morning. MVFR-VFR Wednesday with light rain arriving in the afternoon and evening.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 520 PM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

Light winds will persist into the early evening when breezier southerly winds become possible across the northern outer waters.
Winds across the central and southern waters will strengthen to a moderate to fresh breeze starting mid Wednesday ahead of an incoming cold front. Elevated seas between 12- 17 feet will persist for much of the week as a series of long period northwest swells propagate through the waters, resulting in hazardous conditions for small craft operators. Chances of rain over the waters will begin tonight and continue through the end of the work week.

BEACHES
Issued at 335 AM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

Northwest swell of 9 to 11 feet at 15 to 17 seconds is currently propagating through the coastal waters, resulting large breaking waves and lingering hazardous beach conditions. Current Beach Hazards statement in effect has been extended through 7 PM this evening to account for lingering hazardous conditions from the current swell and the arrival of a new northwest swell later this afternoon. Latest local NWPS run has this swell coming in a little quicker than previous model runs, arriving by the afternoon into the evening today. This upcoming northwest swell is expected to be larger, building to up to 12-14 feet at 17 to 19 seconds by late tonight into Wed. Large waves will peak Wednesday morning with breaking waves of 18 to 22 feet expected. As such, a High Surf Advisory has been issued from 7 PM this evening through late Wednesday night. A Beach Hazards Statement was also issued for the same timeframe for N Monterey Bay (ie Santa Cruz), which will still see larger waves but will be more protected from NW swell. Be sure to use extra caution if going to the beach, as these large waves will be capable of sweeping people into the water. Avoid rocks and jetties. Avoid steep beaches. Stay much farther back from the water and never turn your back on the ocean.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-530.

High Surf Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for CAZ006-505-509- 530.

Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ006-505-506-508-509.

Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

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Alameda Creek
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Tue -- 01:17 AM PST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:08 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:21 AM PST     5.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:59 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:42 PM PST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:49 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:13 PM PST     4.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Alameda Creek, San Francisco Bay, California, Tide feet

Oakland Airport SW
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Tue -- 12:02 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:29 AM PST     0.53 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:48 AM PST     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:08 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:10 AM PST     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:56 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:59 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:40 PM PST     0.30 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:23 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:08 PM PST     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Oakland Airport SW, South San Francisco Bay, California Current, knots

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