SHORT TERM
(This evening through tonight)
Issued at 1254 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Temperatures look to peak in the mid-to-upper 90's across the far interior, 70's and 80's around the South Bay and North Bay valleys, and upper 50's to 60's near the coast this afternoon. Tonight, expecting more widespread low clouds, fog, and coastal drizzle to impact the region as the marine layer deepens. This is in response to a mid/upper level trough moving across the region. Minimum temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 40's across the colder interior spots with 50's elsewhere.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Temperatures continue to cool Saturday and Sunday with widespread 70s to 80s expected inland and 60s to 70s expected closer to the coast. Upper level troughing will continue to deepen over the weekend which will help to keep temperatures cooler and contribute to some slight potential for light drizzle. Overnight Friday into Saturday and Saturday into Sunday, decent low level moisture at 850mb and 700mb will support the development of light drizzle to light rain along the coast and in areas where upslope ascent is favored. Both the NBM and the HRRR pick up on light coastal drizzle overnight this weekend with some potential for light showers over the marine environment. The NBM is showing very light precipitation totals along the coast and bay shoreline with totals ranging from a trace to a few hundredths of an inch.

The upper level pattern will become more zonal by early next week which will allow for temperatures to warm slightly. In general, temperatures are expected to gradually increase a few degrees each day beginning Monday but high temperatures will still remain below average through mid-week. By mid to late next week, a little more uncertainty enters the forecast in regards to how fast high temperatures will warm up again. Ensemble guidance indicates ridging will start to build over the Western US by mid to late next week but cluster analysis indicates that it is less certain where exactly the ridge will set up. Temperatures could be slightly warmer depending on if the ridge is centered more directly over the West Coast vs temperatures could be slightly cooler if the ridge is centered to the east of the coast. Regardless, it is looking likely that above average temperatures will return with the current forecast and the CPC 8-14 day outlook both in support of slightly above average temperatures returning by the first week of August.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Currently VFR at all terminals with stratus along the coastline.
The marine layer will continue to deepen, therefore all terminals are forecast to get some form of a ceiling tonight. Winds will remain onshore through the TAF period. Slant range visibilities will likely be impacted due to haze and smoke.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. Winds will prevail out of the west through the TAF period. Moderate-to-high confidence on the terminal developing an IFR ceiling this evening.
The TAF was constructed with optimism and a reasonable best case scenario for clearing time tomorrow; however, it may clear later as some models/guidance don't have it clearing until 21Z-00Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Low clouds will filter in early this evening and linger through the TAF period.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Moderate-to-high confidence on LIFR ceilings developing at both terminals this evening. Winds will prevail out of the west through the TAF period.

MARINE
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 843 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes with strong gusts will prevail through the forecast period. Significant wave heights will continue to abate through the forecast period.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.